The asset management
industry and behavioural economists alike, through indicator
selection, have long sought to become ever more certain about
economic conditions and associated prevailing trends over the near,
mid and long terms.
Quantitative Insights -
Depending upon the
internal beliefs of seniors, a company's size and its associated
general capabilities, it will seek-out as many conventional formal
indicators as possible; spanning the usual metrics from central
bank's inflation reports, the provision of (antiquated titled)
'non-farm payroll', consumer reports (such as the Retail Price
Index), productivity reports (such as Purchasing Managers' Index) and
of course policy statements from central banks and influential
independent or quasi-independent government bodies (such as the OBR
here in the UK).
However, critically furthermore, forecasters, commentators and investors, whether in the
press, academia or deal directly within money management itself, seek
to convince their audiences, clients and possibly themselves via the
inclusion of additional “alternative indicator”s of the
non-conventional formal and metric modeled kind.
Whilst distinctly
modelled trend analysis itself has developed ever more so via the
collection and availability of “big-data” from “big-corps”
and even government agencies (spanning Tesco's ClubCard, Google's
effective (and nigh-on 24/7) locational mapping of its users, and the
commercialised availability of state intelligence) the desire for an ability to read the more implicit, softer dynamics of social trends, so as to
gauge economic sentiment, remains as potent as ever.
By adding as many
indicative inputs as possible, or by grouping a seemingly balanced
mix of conventional and non-conventional inputs, general commentators
and 'on the pulse' money managers are thereby considered as
better informed given the number of “quills to their arrows, and arrows to their bow”. A sought after standing developed to both gain input insights, but also to boost
perceptions of clients, readers and industry counterparts.
Qualitative Insights -
Today with the UK's
green shoots of recovery appearing more and more healthy, the Financial
Times' FM section - dedicated to fund management issues - quoted the
words of one asset managers' upbeat mantra regards much improved consumer
confidence levels garnered from the observation that more new cars have apparently
appeared in the UK painted in brighter (ie happier and more optimistic) colours.
By now, this has become a hackneyed observation, very much like its precursor pertaining to the length of women's skirts.
Yet as with skirts, it
seems that this is simply a belief system given, and may well be
either at worst a popular misconception, or at best at least only
partial truism.
These supposed economic
indicators have no doubt been explored before by academic economists,
academic sociologists, academics and amateurishly by practising money
managers. But with next to nothing in the immediate public domain, this topic deserves greater investigation, albeit in a lightweight manner.
With an obvious
inclination to all things regards investment and automotive,
investment-auto-motives has undertaken a very short analysis of the
matter to see whether such popular beliefs have the true substance of
repetition, or have arrived simply from over used rhetoric stemming
from a singular instance.
This Part 1 quickly
reviews the length of skirts, whilst the following Part 2 critiques
the colour of cars.
Societal Observation -
Identifying the threads
of mass social, mass consumer consciousness, and indeed the very much
finer threads from narrow but influential social groups, has been a
subject of analysis ever since its importance to the success of
consumer capitalism was initially recognised. The first step forward
perhaps Thorstein Veblen's 'The Theory of the Leisure Class', and its
section on 'Conspicuous Consumption', which described the
trickle-down trend consumption habits amongst the mass populace
[NB Long recognised is
the concept of “Veblian pricing”, wherein the very price of an
item / service denotes its apparent 'value', such stratospheric
'values' witnessed in art auctions, or as seen recently, through a
billionaire's record order for a fleet of bespoke Rolls-Royce motor
cars].
Thus there is a long
history of various social observer types commenting upon the very
important correlation between a nation's consumption habits within
social trends and its relative burgeoning, stagnant or declining
economic strength.
Sewing-Up the Matter -
Perhaps best known is
the notional indicator of the length of hemline on women's skirts,
which through the 20th century apparently rose and fell
according to boom and bust.
This observation
actually started at the beginning of the 1920s together with the
general greater emancipation of women. Such 'freedom' gained by
previous traversing of social taboos by activists such as Pankhurst
et al, the female maintained 'home-fires' during WW1 translating to
new voting rights, and new opportunities of industrial and commercial
employment. These new 'freedoms' providing new purchasing powers
which in turn provided a snowball of influential enterprise
opportunities across clothing, home decoration and the rise of the
status-seeking self through populist imagery. All reflected by the
transition for younger ladies toward likewise freer (less
constricted) clothing, promoted by populist weekly reads and evolving
cinema (especially so in America, the UK and Germany). Hence the
care-free idealism of the 'flapper girl' as seen wearing knee-length
hemlines in supposed 'high society' column magazine pictures, in
actuality translated as mid-shin length everyday hemlines for the new
crop of shop-assistants, factory workers and administrative clerks.
But more critically the era led to the popularisation of
non-utilitarian fashion inspired wardrobes which generated
consumption.
Thereafter, after the
burst market bubble of late 1929 and the immediate major pains of the
Great Depression, it was a return to modest, common-sense, multi-mode
clothing, made necessary from reduced spending power, but also a
wider adoption of a conservative middle class social mentality which
itself visually railed against the previous frivolity and excess. For
the most part hemlines staid put at calf-height, materials more
durable.
Thereafter, WW2
promoted similar staidness, with “make-do-and-mend” of older
clothes encouraged and in the UK the rise of 'Utility' style clothes
(and furniture etc) which discouraged the superfluous stylistic use
of excess valuable material. However, ironically it was also during
this economically austere period that hemlines rose as a consequence
of national Supply Boards intentional shortening the skirt length of
female uniforms within women's war service branches (WRENS, WAAFS
etc) so as to similarly minimise material usage.
This reality then
undoing the theory of shorter skirts appearing during economic boom
periods.
Post war society
actually saw a return to longer hemlines, with reduced rationing of
material and the renewed impact of fashion, especially that of French
fashion houses such as Chanel and their 1947 'New Look'. Thus
ironically the growth period of the 1950s actually maintained a
longer skirt, though coupled with a more clinched waist. However, it
was the actual usage of larger swathes of material itself, when once
again publicised by a new set of fashion magazines, which helped the
textile industries across Europe and the USA to re-expand and so
power national economies.
It was the new youth
and teenage culture, underpinned by the anti-norm pseudo-intellectual
'Beat Movement' of the late 1950s, with less restrictive shortened
knee-length skirts offering greater freedom for activity which
provided the new norm in fashions for the early 1960s.
With a new generation
of baby-boomer women entering the workforce, it was this continued
idea of female empowerment and self-owned sexuality – consumerism
now the entrenched conduit for apparent self expression – which led
to the miniskirt as promoted by British designers and models. (The
Mini name obviously deriving from 'minimal' and supposedly partially
influenced by the radical small 1959 Austin-Morris car).
Such fashion driven
apparel had the effect of generally shortening general use skirt
hemlines, as seen by wide adoption for most ages by the late 1960s
and across the 1970s. Ironically, as with war-time, once again skirt
shortening occurred during a long volatile period for financial
markets and what was essentially a sustained period of economic
stagnation for the UK, Europe and N.America; if not actual adverse
austerity.
Conversely, like the
better-off 1950s, much of the 1980s – an age of economic
re-flourishing - saw a return of longer “classic” skirts,
promoted by the stylistic “new romanticism” of the period and
corporate 'power dressing' for women, spilling over into everyday
fashions. Likewise the return of upper middle class motifs, which
espoused notional personal prosperity, was best known via the general
influence of The City brigade (along with their old-money
establishment cousins on Wall Street), the wealth-led, and weekend
pursuits lifestyle, encouraging a raft of aspirant followers fro the
middle classes thanks to Laura Ashley et al.
The 1990s saw skirts
rise once more with a return to youth culture orientation (played-out
by Madonna etc), a return of counter-culture ideals (though
commercially packaged), a notion of general 'democratisation'
(centre-left led politics) and more liberal Euro orientated stylistic
influence.
Conclusion -
Thus as demonstrated,
the fact is that the history of hemline lengths actually runs counter
to the popular belief that hemlines rise during prosperous periods.
It was only the
appearance and social impact of the Mini skirt, commercialised by
Mary Quant and others toward the tail-end of the initial post-war
boom - and its surging mass adoption and general fashion impact
before the arrival of late 1960s economic contraction, that has led
to the evergreen misnomer that skirt lengths depict prevailing
economic reality.
Nonetheless, that
hyperbole has been deployed within the finance industry to the
present time. And seemingly so with as much pro-cyclical,
multi-decade revivalist vigour as the cultural re-assertions of the
advertising and events sectors, in the rehashing of social synergies
between Mary Quant's and Alec Issigonis' original, progressive
output.
To Follow -
Part 2 follows, and
similarly reviews whether indeed the
colours of new cars bought by the public do indeed equate to the renewed zeitgeist of improved economic confidence.
Done so by briefly, and simplistically analysing the prevailing economic climates of the 20th century, and overlaying the most prevalent and popular car models manufactured, with (as best a possibly retrieved) the colours and shades that were offered.
As with the history and corollary of skirt lengths, was it actually the new and more optimistic 'new era' offerings of manufacturers themselves (closely linked to renewed availability of wholesale and consumer credit) which actually prompts new periods of a apparent consumer confidence, and so a positive snowball effect?
As with the history and corollary of skirt lengths, was it actually the new and more optimistic 'new era' offerings of manufacturers themselves (closely linked to renewed availability of wholesale and consumer credit) which actually prompts new periods of a apparent consumer confidence, and so a positive snowball effect?
Ultimately, before delving into Part 2, it must be recognised that such apparent personal 'observations' will inevitably be deployed not as thorough socio-economic trend indicators (actually dependent upon sample sizes and scientific rigour) but as easily adopted back-fitted qualitative rhetoric. Rhetoric which notionally validates any emergent feel-good factor during a resurgent period based on improved quantitative 'dashboard' metrics.
