Cinquecento Anni – Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) – The Practical Philosopher

The content of today's mass-media and social-networking appears an ever increasing black-hole of juxtaposed nerve-wracking news and facile trivia.

[NB. investment-auto-motives is resolutely apolitical, thus any observations are purely from empiracal, objective experience. That stated...

...Between the two worlds abovementioned lies (quite literally) the now numerous existence of morally moribund 'social actors'; themselves typically willing yet ignorant real-world pawns, manipulated by manufactured social agendas, social-pressure and so group-think,  enabled through the now culturally expansive media, and use of the 'psycho-sociological, to create ever more 'social actors'. So much so society itself becomes a continually toxic experience.

The old adage "the first victim of (social) war is truth" has never been so obvious given the falsity of today's very warped supposed civil society.

If alive today, Leonardo da Vinci (and many other great people who fought for truth and decency of all sexes, colours and creeds) ,would be both insightfully aware and simultaneously appalled at the pernicious 'left vs right' ploys].

Most obviously, present  news fears are regards a 'no-deal' Brexit escalate, the insecurity of a Northern Irish 'backstop' with the potential to re-fracture previously placated neighbourhoods, prompted by the 'New IRA', whilst as a consequence of such turmoil, UK inward investment in the Auto sector from the Japanese, Germans, French and Indians shrinks and consequential job losses and short-time working.

A renewed ethno-centrism is on the rise – even the Shetland Isles now celebrating their Viking-Pagan roots – the zietgeist likely to stir more troublesome others unhappy with the status quo, from the old faction fringes of Basque Separatists to, if continually stirred, new troubles in the Balkans.

Europe is not quite the 'tinder-box' of 1914 or 1939 – with Brussels seeking to re-consolidate the EU ideal to avoid breakdown - but internally concerns have grown at the rise of friction and factions.

Let is hope national leaders and peoples “see sense”.

Modern Europe is intrinsically interwoven with Roman, Medieval, Renaissance and Enlightenment Europe. The very fabric of classical buildings as homes to learned institutions, testament to the rise and cultural power of European civillisation; an imbued culture that spread from as far apart as The East Indies to remotest regions of Central and South Americas.

It was built by the hands of the masses to the orchestration of the intelligentsia; who for the most part through Administration, the Applied Sciences and the Arts.

At home and abroad, that idealism sought to create cultural stability and social improvement.

The very origins of the modern Capitalist system, operating from the Medici supervised Italian “tavalo / banco' stalls, was in large part based upon the financial returns of innovation and exploration. So from the very start – prompted by loss of influence over the Silk Road trade route in 1453 - the notion of academic research as underpinning process, product, social and political betterment, to realise profit and spread wealth, was very well understood.

From the design of hulls of ocean-going 'carry-trade' ships (the term's origins) and those of the war-ships that protected them, to the need to try and cure new foreign diseases, to the requirement to create more efficient cities and highways through more analytical regional and urban planning, to thereafter the manner in which such newly dynamic economic growth regions might be protected from foreign interests.

Everything in the man-made and natural worlds was to be studied in minutia, for the sake of understanding and improvement. So as to gain both critical competitive advantage and so cultural ascendency.

Those efforts directed by the likes of the Alberti, Medici and other city-state and principality counterparts, was predicated upon the questioning personas, exploration, discoveries, and new insightfulness. Advancement predicated upon the dedication and innate brilliance of a relatively few men.

Men who themselves had saturated themselves in learning, whether formally through advantageous social structure, or informally through an autodidactic drive; or ideally via both with the Patronage System, which directed funds to look after those whose ideas would in turn look-after entire peoples.

Many of those people are forgotten, but the name Leonardo da Vinci – and its omnipresence in modern society – has since his own rediscovery, been lauded as the very model and archetype of “genius”.

British Airways may be celebrating its centenary this year, but a man died four hundred years previously who would – as just one interest of many – investigate the principles of manned-flight to emulate the natural world around.

His sketch-books and writings, scattered around the world's museums and held from The Vatican to Windsor Castle and Buckingham Palace, illustrate the vast spectrum of his studies stemming from Natural Philosophy.

From the flow of rivers and water-courses (Fluid Dynamics) to the character-types of people as embodied in their faces, gesticulations and habits (Anthropology); with a raft of disciplines between: spanning simple mechanics for various applications, to advanced theorems derived from observation of light, dissected animals and human cadavers to under-water habitation, the principles of effectively mated town-planning and architecture, depicted by way of expanded principles of drawn and coloured perspective.

[NB. Most of his mechanical 'inventions'  were actually basic developments of well known and utilized engineering. Hence his 'forerunner of the tank', was hardly revolutionary in concept, given previous Roman use of 'tortoise-shell' gathered shield mobility of their legionares, and as the drive-train the use of mated rotating components, long seen in irrigation and elsewhere].

And obviously beyond these exploratory efforts, the creation of sublime artistry commissioned by church and patrons. In which whilst the master-pieces are astounding, it is the initial 'cartoons' plied with soft materials that often best convey nuance and meaning.

Yet... this is mere repetition of what has been stated countless times before from brief gallery to glossy large coffee-table tome.

As anyone highly proficient in their discipline will attest – whether artist, scientist, sportsperson, et al – it is the process of exploration, learning and discovery that is perhaps as – if not more - fulfilling than the final output.

For unlike a singular item of output, the process itself provides one with a continual self-enabling to 'see' and 'represent'. The person then the very embodiment of the art-form, hence arguably even more precious than the produced item itself.

From well before the Medici, all socio-economic systems have known this, and hence so as to control and direct, creation of formal employment systems from the Medieval Guilds Apprenticeships to the constructs of the modern highly skilled professional position, from Neuro-surgeon to omnipresent CEO.

The innate problem being that unless the creator can also operate as comfortably independent, s/he inevitably becomes resentful of such a structure, as income from inevitably fluctuating company budgets fails to consistently support the highest minds.

Such inconsistency of financial support to such truly talented peoples inevitably restricts commercial, cultural and human progress.

This even more so when an individual is able to:

1. Deploy critical learning from one discipline and set of circumstances to another.

2. Span a multitude of disciplines and so able provide new connective conceptual theorems.

3. Understand both macro and micro environments in detail to form a credible 'Grande Plan'.

In a world that has become ever more subject-centric, so as to deepen, direct and control such learning, fewer and fewer such polymaths exist today.

This is an enormous shame and a detriment.

And although there may be the appearance of deep broad learning across various subject matter – such as the participants of BBC's University Challenge – the fact remains that this is all too often almost 'rote learned', with the disciplines themselves rarely absorbed in full.

Leondardo da Vinci – and no doubt similar forgotten others of his era - was the very opposite – the true polymath.

He studied his subjects on and to an almost spiritual level, so as to absorb and make conceptual connections both within and across his (non-silo'd) study disciplines.

This is not to say he was always correct, since – from our modern perspective and learning – he made some naïve errors in assumption and belief.

Yet even with his errors, he remains the innate personification of the polymath, seeking understanding in everything and questioning the basis of then current belief; from 'the 4 humours' that supposedly ruled physical and mental health, through to realisation (in an almost buddhist and zen-like way) that perfection cannot (and perhaps should not) be attained between the man-made and natural order.

This starckly learned when one hypothesis regards human proportion and 'golden rules' would not accord to that of square and circle geometries. The Vitruvian Man (and so the mathematical constructs of nature) were expected to perfectly fit simultaneously in both perfect circle and perfect square.

But, to make the figure fit – and so demonstrate to the church of understanding 'god's ways' – the figure (not obviously simply pose) of the man had to be altered to have him fit within the geometrical boundaries.

This almost a metaphor of himself, though closer than nearly all to 'the mind of god', he himself had to contort his life to fit the very much sub-optimal man-made society he existed within.

Just as he sought to create a bird-inspired, single-person, flying-contraptions, so he obviously wished to fly intellectually ever upwards into the heavens.

The innate irony being that the tallow candles and olive oil soaked wicks he used to light his sketch-work and writings of such human flight, would be superseded by crude oil, gas, electricity, and later highly refined kerosene blends and solid- fuels that could produce a man-made 'jet-stream' of its own.

Using those sources, by 1960 experimental rocket-packs had been created.

And today in exploratory form, the evolution of those first early tests with use of 3D-printed strap-on jet-propulsion-packs; single-person flying devices either launched from the ground or when dropped from the sky.

Such advancements have come from the compilation of linear, parallel and lateral thinking.

Leonardo da Vinci would be both amazed by what has been invented by the brightest minds of today, and perhaps just a little saddened.

Precisely because five hundred years on, so many remain essentially bereft of true education and enlightenment.  People still operate upon principles little removed from their ape ancestry, far closer to monkeys than gods.

Leonardo's candle of European Enlightenment still flickers, but seems weakened, as so many of modern society's own 'currents and eddies'  form an increasingly dumbed-down and dismissive near mono-culture, which runs counter to the ideal of personal and social betterment : the very heart and central nervous system of European history.

Today, more than ever, we need the singularly combined multi-aspect minds of the scientist and artist, able to imbue much needed Practical Philosophy.

The advancement of society, via well orchestrated Capitalism, depends upon it.

Micro-Level Trends – The UK's Niche Vehicle “New Future” - Investor Acuity Required

  

The old adage conveys that “a fool and his money are soon parted”.  

That exemplified by the litany of niche vehicle companies that have come and gone over the decades.

As has been noted, Britain today sits in an economic schism; the erosion of the old middle-class has left a growing gulf between the small hyper-wealthy, the 'comfortably-off' viewed as the old upper-middle, the  remainder of the lower-middle, 'working poor' on 'living-wage' incomes and the truly desperate with no or very little state-provided income.

That structural disconnect in society has obviously generated the reactionary politics we see today, between the neo-Thatcherite right, singing the praises of free enterprise and trickle-down economics, and those who simply seek stable long-term employment, thus attracted to the idiom of re-Nationalised industries and sectors.

Whilst specific areas such as London's Kings Cross becomes the epicentre of a digital UK, and Milton Keynes operates as the geographic test-bed for autonomous 'pod' vehicles; and even with 'Motorsport Valley' operating at the cutting-edge of global race-car design and engineering, the fact is that de-industrialisation has eradicated jobs that many of today's large swathes of 'unemployable' non-skilled and low-skilled people could have done.

It may be unpopular to state, but much of Britain's 'New Nationalism' stemming from the far right is a reaction to decades of unemployment and under-employment across what was supposed to be new development areas. That attracted new service sector activities ranging from expansive retail malls to call-centres, to warehouse-logistics centres, to the new crop of services and support entities providing through-life product assistance, and socio related efforts such as charities and quangos

But, all too often the newly built business parks that were created as service-industry hubs remained under-occupied, and relied upon discounted terms to temporarily attract relocated divisions from government departments or the NHS back-office.

And yet still, large tracts of Britain in old industrial, rural and coastal areas remained nigh on destitute, since populations remained and grew where suitable employment opportunities had been lacking for decades.

Light engineering industry was once a vital part of the national economy, yet much for good commercial reasons was 'sent abroad' so that income squeezed companies themselves could slim work-forces and bolster unit margins and annual profits.

In the auto-industry, from the 1980s onward, it meant inevitable component supply problems for the once thriving crop of niche and not so niche vehicle makers, many of which relied upon quite erratic 'hit or miss' business models and over-optimistic owners and managers.

Whilst the bread and butter stuff such as utility body-building went on – often quite successfully - under the radar through the 1980s, the 'sexy' end of the UK niche vehicle sector that typically built sportscars, some luxury cars and conversions, from Jensen's 'last gasp' Interceptors and GTs, to Reliant's Scimitars and SS1,  to Bristol's Blenheims to Dakar's and Overfinch's 4x4s, all inevitably saw their own fortunes falter; Bristol today left operating on a lean servicing and repair orientated basis. 

In the late 1980s and 1990s, it was perhaps only TVR (thanks much to Peter Wheeler's oil-generated corporate funding and good business sense) that gained true commercial traction from apparently no-where, thanks to its unique styling based USP, and a new band of high-disposable income customers who sought something different, British and fantastical. 

The 1990s and early 2000s was the era when the best known marques (Aston Martin Lagonda, Rolls-Royce, Bentley) were taken under the wing of major manufacturers to provide the financial and engineering foundations to effectively rebuild the companies, whilst only few old names such as Morgan and Ginetta (surviving Marcos closing in 2007) and new names such as Ariel, Noble, Caparo, then BAC and others arriving into the frey with hardcore motorsport derived cars. Whilst, the once thriving Kit-Car sub-sector experienced its own domino-like collapse, promoted by the collapse of many of their underlying supplier companies, themselves forced to raise unit prices to unsustainable levels as their own order-book shrank.

With the shrinkage of sectors such as the caravan and static-home industry, the low-cost boat sector, and areas such as domestic furniture, much of UK light engineering lost both its gravitas and capabilities as its regional and national economic importance declined.

However, given that most things automotive, especially the glamorous end, has such an emotive pull on the heartstrings, examples of a renaissance are seen time and again. This when either the owner-sponsor has enough wealth and business 'nounce' to create a strong commercial entity, or when the product hits a market sweet-spot.  

This seen with the expansion of Ginetta under Lawrence Tomlinson (using funds gained from his successful care-home business), effectively replaying the Peter Wheeler mantle for the Leeds-based marque.  

Whilst BAC appears to be re-expanding with presumable efforts to reach further into export markets and evolve and evolve beyond its core single-seater (ie 'monoposto') product.

But recently the two new and revived names to appear are Ineos Automotive and TVR Automotive.

The Ineos 4x4 is the well publicised start-up by the oil and chemicals industrialist (and apparently Britain's richest man) Jim Ratcliffe. Having crafted his commercial skills in private equity and successfully integrated a plethora of smaller operational sites within refining and petro-chemicals, he know wishes to create a robust 4x4 utility vehicle in the idiom of the Land Rover Defender – known as Project Grenadier - as 'the original' itself moves onto a new generation using (like JLR siblings and Ford's F-series) an aluminium platform and associated  sub-structures.

[This suggests that to provide the original's 'modularity', that the concept from Ineos Automotive may well be a composite clad body upon steel ladder chassis platform to provide for a 're-balance' of mass, BoM cost, build cost and on/off-road  performance (aided by lower c of g). This was infact the exploratory avenue Land Rover itself prototyped for feasibility research in the mid 1990s at Gaydon's GDEC , various replacement options considered almost every year for decades].

As would be expected, Jim Ratcliffe has been scoping out the availability of government grants for his venture – to make the business model work - and so a portion of Ford;s Bridgend plant in South Wales has been identified as an optimum location for the factory site.

Exactly how the venture pans-out will have to be seen, but it will be intersting to see given the likelihood of competition from EM countries to replicate the original Jeep/Land Rover/LandCruiser vehicle construct in their own and local regional markets.. And of course the size and role expansion of utility side-by-side quad machines and their own plethora of attachment tools, that replicate the ideal of the original Wilks Bros vehicle sketched in the sand at Anglesey.

[NB It may be likely that Ratcliffe seeks to obtain Land Rover Defender name licensing rights if and when the vehicle is built; whether as direct copy of Defender or as to meet any exacting new Land Rover build standards derived from that 1990s 'plastic prototype'].

Whatever the exact details of the business model, the parent companies £4.2bn underlying profit will help reduce its remaining debt pile and help substantially fund Project Grenadier.

At the opposite end of the spectrum is the rebirth of TVR. This led since 2013 by Les Edgar, who himself gained his wealth in the video entertainment industry through various enterprises and most notably Bullfrog Productions.

As a keen motorsport participant – racing Aston Martins as a privateer – he purchased the remains (not ongoing concern) of TVR from the Russian Nikolai Smolenski. The fact that the transition 'back to the UK' was so “straightforward” indicates that Smolenski had done little besides sit in the name for years hoping for a higher price when sold than when purchased, awaiting the economic up-turn.

The deal done, Edgar likewise sought out a Welsh factory site for the ideal of a regional development grant from the Welsh Assembly. His idea being inland in Ebbw Vale on the edge of the Breacon Beacons national park, which itself requires new employment opportunities. (Obviously the TVR old-guard would prefer Blackpool, which itself has an enormous 'army' of unemployed).

That deal was done a year ago with the  Welsh government providing a £0.5m payment for for 3% of the company - so a value then of £16.666m -  and a further 2m loan. However, the funding is drawn from EU sources which required a pan-EH tender process for the new factory site, so complicating matters; and delaying the completion of the plant and so schedule for SoP. The earliest possibility being likely for 2020.

Edgar contracted Gordon Murray Design to design the new (Ford Cosworth engined) 3^rd generation Griffith coupe (second bodystyle), no doubt to add credibility through association, and ensure a matured aesthetic; though with obvious cosmetic influences.

(Though the verbage about “ground effect” appears somewhat over-blown technical-marketing given its 'real-world' ride height, and so highly questionable, especially given the absence of ground-scraping front aero-dam and side-skirts to ensure cleanly channeled air with functional venturi vacuum. There is all-round aero treatment, but not architypical 'ground-effect' for carB this the very opposite of the term 'ground-effect' of very  low-level air-ride ekranoplans.)

The offering is as a “useable” sportscar with less exterior and interior novelty and ostentatiousness than the well loved Wheeler era cars, but with an aggressive audible character. Thus it seeks to deliberately espouse a schizophrenic aura, somewhat restrained bodyform with a big bang engine note; so positioned closer to that of a more aggressive enlarged Jaguar F-type. with respective AMG/McLaren and Corvette/Toyota front and rear overtones. Though obviously readily adaptable to aero add-on track modification.

But the construction method remains the same, as it has done for nigh on 60 years , even if labelled as (Murray's) iStream process with few carbon-fibre income between the braces.. A steel semi-space-frame clad with composite panels; it still remains the most cost-effective solution for the production of niche volume vehicles and so reduces repair and insurance costs to the owner-driver, compared to more exotic exterior materials.

Exactly how Edgar and 'new TVR' fares remains to be seen, but his route with a substantive PR push so early on in the business's existence, appears the obverse of Wheeler's approach previously, who set the old Blackpool factory straight first (personnel to procurement to powertrain) growing the brand slowly and organically from largely internal competence rather than bought-in consulting. But we arguably live in a different era, where 'loud is proud' from the get-go via social media, and God-like designer personas are immediate prospective clients attraction. And so Edgar's approach is only to be expected.

However, whilst as 'sexy' as it externally appears to many from prospective clients to prospective investors, the UK niche vehicle industry remains a harsh landscape to harvest profitably.

Old names like Lister have been revived for historical racing, whilst new names like (the retro-esque) Climax and David Brown sit in incubation stagnancy, and 'electric dreams' like the Lightening GT remain likewise.

[NB it appears that some entrepreneurs (such as possibly Lightening) have sought to simply occupy a specific market space for Sports EVs, to probably simply gain public recognition to boost the goodwill value quotient of their balance sheet, and seek an exit sale to a larger EV-related entity].

Furthermore, as re-iterated by Gillian Tett per the renaissance in American manufacturing; mucrh more focus is required per the after-market potential of increasingly expanded  Service and the concept creation potential of innovative Intellectual Property.

[NB herein we see the likes of Ricardo plc teaming with Roke regards automotive digital security with what seems an unstated but expected ambition beyond initial testing for robustness,. This to replicate Roll-Royce Aero's client support model of through-life service for its jet engines, herein regards cyber-functionality and 'digital resistence' to hacking].

The UK niche vehicle industry should offer a new horizon and opportunity to the poorer regions of the country, and regional development grants/loans look likely to continue to be given.

But (as ever) the possibility of some start-ups simply following the dot.com schema of 'incubation to quick exit sale' is always a hidden business possibility; typically seen where the substance of a small but truly robust operational business appears lacking.

Hence any investor, whether individual, consortium, institutional or even peer-to-peer crowd funding group must do its homework. Closely analysing the dynamics and history of niche vehicles, and take a good long hard look and the macro and micro-level issues, from the regional and global business climate, to the innards of the business, the financial structure,  the market space, competitors and offered product, and much more.

In short, very, very robust due dilligence.

Never be carried away by the dream, glamour or hype.

Henry, Peter and Charles Morgan knew all too well that although their ash-wood body-frames 'grew on trees', money did not; and it was that acuity that allowed Morgan Cars to survive the bad times and prosper in the good.

Automotive sector Investors should heed likewise.  

New Year Message - 2019 – A Tower of Strength and Deep Well of Fortitude : The Example of Ms Hannah Hauxwell

As ever, across the world the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 was marked with a cornucopia of visual splendor as fireworks provided a multi-coloured backdrop for celebration.

Here in London the midnight chime of Big Ben was for the first time struck electronically, the hammer of the bell uncoupled from its clockwork and mated to an electrical motor.

Under monumental renovation and encased in a steel super-structure, the Elizabeth Tower presently appears a hi-tech, post-modern de-construct more akin to the Pompidou Centre than the edifice of Gothik Revivalism. Yet that metallic sheath, as abject counter-point, has an innate exo-skeleton beauty of its own, born from true functionality. All whilst the Tower's own components are refurbished and replaced.

At an estimated cost of £61m it does not come cheap, but provided a substantive idea regards the philosophical re-building of Britain at such a crucial juncture in time. Moreover, the project acts in the archetypical Keynesian manner of deploying tax-payers funds upon significant public works; and whilst it may not have the economic impact of say the Hoover Dam of desperate 1930s America, it has a major effect for hundreds in civil engineering and the now highly specialised artisan fields

At a time when the construction trade is still under pressure from variously delayed major commercial projects - as the old business models of brownfield site re-use is being fundamentally questioned with decline of retail-space values and rise of 'deskless' freelancers – such 'Establishment' projects are welcomed by the trade.

Likewise, this and similar projects provides an enormous boost to the craft  specialists who operate in what is otherwise near invisible spheres often located far from city-hussle in the quieter provinces, Halifax and far beyond so as to recast clock-face hands, manufacture and cut traditional glass, repair ornate iron-work, re-gild stonework and repaint to the hi-lustre of original specification.

Ultimately, the starkness of the scaffolding and light-tubes provides an inevitable contrast for what will eventually appear from within, so making the final result even more engaging. For adults it may represent a clean start for politics after so many years of muddle. Young children may view it as a Disney-esque magical castle. And future tourists will inevitably eventually consider it as a physical manifestation of both the Victorian and Second Elizabethan Ages.

Beside the hopes and economic revitalisation of HS2 and the rail connections for a desired new 'Northern Powerhouse', amidst the present malaise in construction, one of the brighter sectors within UK civil engineering is the rarified discipline of Oil-Well De-Commissioning.

As Britain looks ever more to reliance on gas and continued rise of renewable energy (ostensibly wind-power), the major oil companies that since the 1970s have excavated and evacuated deep-sea Brent crude oil, now face the challenge of both effectively capping the end-of-life oil-fields and looking to fracking-type methods to extract the hard-to-reach pockets of oil and gas.

Such challenges in Research, Development and Application make for good new potential earning streams for a specialist crop of operators. Small and growing firms that will either see organic growth from proven performance as likewise is required around the world from competant companies, or through acquisition by the oil majors as they seek to gain capabilities in 'closing the loop' of a necessarily more responsible global oil economy.

That then is good news for a sub-sector

Yet whilst Britain abounds in architectural splendor as representation of past, present and future national strength, and illustrates itself as at the forefront of fossil fuel ecological responsibility, it is the British people that reflect the country's true internal being.

So it is here that investment-auto-motives must make mention of one event of early 2018.

It was the passing of Ms Hannah Hauxwell.

This lady became momentarily and periodically famous from 1970 onward, when press coverage illustrated her circumstances as a lone cattle farmer in the Yorkshire Pennines. By the age of 31 she had become effectively isolated from people and the outside world, and faced tremendous hardship year in and year out on very little income available from her cows.

The public initially rallied around, sent good wishes and fund, but inevitably as her human interest story fell by the wayside and she was soon forgotten.

That interest was rekindled in 1989 when a second documentary was made about her, effectively thereafter planting her as a curio in unfamiliar surroundings; out of context (in London and abroad) and so relayed as the oddity in a highly sociological, fast-paced, mechanised world.

But the fact remains that she from 1961 to the mid 1990s (when as an aged lady sought phsyical relief), she for34 years did everything by herself for herself through the bitterest winters with only realistically her dogs and cattle to keep her company, as she broke ice over the stream to fetch water when the old well had ceased to operate.

But her wholesome spirit and innocent wide-eyedness of a very confined life never failed, and her innate being was clearly that of absolute goodness; very likely because her suffering made her modest, recognising the fine line between living, mere existence and the real possibility of death in mid-winter.

Yet her wonderment of nature kept her heart and mind pure.

Passing at the age of 91, Hannah Hauxwell embodied and demonstrated to Britain what a Tower of Strength and Deep Well of Fortitude actually looks like in human, and possibly angelic, form.

Happy New Year to a lady who presumably now sits far higher than the highest reaches of those New Year's Eve fireworks.