Part 5 : Metamorphic
Modularisation
“Sketching-Out a Three Phase Future”
The six previous case
studies of the modular ideology were obviously only a relative few
instances, that have underpinned the modern world. Other examples
abound.
Given the UK
government's newly announced £44bn focus on the housing sector, a
prosaic example of yesteryear was of course the “Pre-Fab” house
in the post WW2 era, the quick solution to the need to house hundreds
of thousands of people away from the devastation.
The speedy and
cost-efficient basis of the “Pre-Fab” (ie pre-fabricated)
building – whilst heavily influencing and favoured by much of
Europe in very advanced structure – failed to make in-roads in the
UK. This precisely because of the structure and interests of the
domestic housing sector, from the deep intersection with Finance and
Banking, the entrenched '30%-30%-30%' (10% contingency) business
model of house-builders, reliance on heavy commodities (bricks,
aggregates etc) much low-cost labour, and the sector's contribution
to the FTSE 250. In effect a highly fragmented, and so incrementally
value-adding process in which much value (ie profit) can be
extracted.
Nonetheless, whilst
this reality is entrenched in the deep foundations of the UK economy,
new policy and CSR thinking for those people most marginalised (the
homeless) should take place.
To this end,
investment-auto-motives suggests that a policy be created which
utilises old, disregarded yet sound shipping containers and
detatchable 'Luton' box-van bodies be appropriated, modified and used
as micro-homes to end dire suffering.
[NB It seems that BT
Openreach (the wholesale comms division of the Group) have been
discontinuing their now aged fleet of box-body vans, because of
apparent events of fire caused by portions of the wooden internal
structure of the box, leading to the humorous term 'the WickerVan'
amongst fleet engineers. Unless BT seeks to recycle the sheet plastic, aluminium and extrusions, these bodies could be stripped of flammable
internal materials and given to a dedicated charity for adaptation
and in which to house the homeless far from the troublesome
inner-city streets].
As corporations take on
greater social inclination and responsibility, such initiatives for
social improvement within western nations should become commonplace.
The UK, Europe and North America suffers from often invisible heavy
social deprivation which requires proper solutions, not just more
formal charities; which appear to better serve their 'private-sector
level' paid Directors, Managers and Staff – which is itself is
highly alienating given the 'lifestyle chasm' to those in desperate
need.
Importantly, ever since
the advent of the 2008 Financial Crisis and its devastating effect
upon the UK economy and society at large, the product philosophy of
necessary re-use, new-use and long life-cycles for old and new
products and their sub-components has become increasingly melded into
the social and industrial consciousness.
To this end there needs
to be a more holistic and long-termist perspective about the
fundamental infrastructures of western society, this the prime
argument posited herein regards a new modular age for the Emergency
Service Vehicles. So as to underpin both the reduced costs of
long-term government spending in this arena, and operate as a
catalyst for broader change and advancement in public and private
transport.
In order to appreciate
the possibility for such a rational re-design of society we return to
the most prolific military-industrial case study.
The Transfer of
Military Learning -
The point to be made
here is that the most efficient and effective combined military force
in the world, the US Armed Forces is seen as a powerful template for
the conceptualised idea of a highly technically capable national
emergency services model – one that could be eventually rolled out
world-wide.
And so it is only
logical that in turn the philosophical template of the armed forces,
along with that of the UN, and the 'imagineering' creativity shown by
the creators of 'Thunderbirds' should be revisited to construct an
enhanced future version of the UK's Emergency Services.
Although at first
possibly viewed as seemingly overtly childish, simplistic and
ridiculous the fact remains that the central element of the
'imagineering' that went into 'International Rescue' means that the
TV show should indeed be used as a highly useful cultural reference
when considering the expanded 'real-world' capabilities and
increasingly advanced technical development of the Emergency
Services.
Presciently then,
whilst often intentionally sensationalist and far fetched, the
story-lines of Thunderbirds - often requiring the application of
hi-tech solutions - introduces the idea of a more systematic process
approach toward the marriage of vehicle fleets and specific equipment
needs.
The Dire Need For Long
Term Planning -
The UK's national
budget has been under immense pressure since 2008, the need for
Qualitative Easing as a palliative measure (but adding massively to
the debt over-hang and its deffered 're-balancing' date of now 2030)
plus the reality of relatively slow economic growth within the global
downturn from a low baseline, has meant that both the OBR (Office for
Budget Responsibility), the Treasury / Chancellor of the Exchequer
have all had to undertake a highly challenging financial balancing
act between the 'fire-fighting' social needs of today and the mid to
long-term economic health of the country.
Today we live in a
world of what could be called 'Rationalised Keynsianism' whereby the
high Keynesian costs of new and retro-fitted infrastructure
planning/development, so as to drive up aggregate B2B and B2C demand,
must - unlike the past when central government had the strength and
ability to spend and spend - now be much 'Rationalised' by the
involvement of far more “measured inputs and outputs” from
private capital and commerce.
This process alone then
extends and complicates the infrastructure planning time-frame.
During the 19th
and 20th centuries, the comparative industrial and
economic might of the UK and West meant that high-ideal social
projects could be conceptualised and delivered, from the railways of
the 1850s to the NHS of the 1950s. Little matter that such grand
schemes may have led to cost over-runs and delayed financial
break-even, the ROI in respective financial and social terms was
assured, whereby strong capital could rely upon a structured society
and increasingly healthy and educated workforce.
Things are very
different today, increasingly aged society, increasingly sick
populace (medication rife across the age range from ADHD medicated
children to socially disconnected, long seperated, alienated and rightly distrustful adults) and vitally an equally sick
national 'structural debt' burden. A burden which (now as seen)
extends the budget re-balancing by 15 years, from the initial 2015 to
2030.
It must only be hoped
that the enormous levels of government debt raised will be used
beyond the cash injection into the banks and also be effectively used
to pump-prime and kick-start a new era in UK commerce.
One which re-invents
British commerce and industry far beyond the trite examples of the
internet of things seen so far and the extreme over-hype of truly
autonomous cars. A model which vitally is directly connected to the
rest of the world and indeed leads the world in proper PESTEL
advancement.
Rarely has a society
faced such endemic challenges yet all the while much of its youth and
middle-aged been absorbed into the 'group narcissism' of identity
politics fuelled by the media and social-media so as to feel
“empowered”, the result has become social division, leading to a
permanently “passive-aggressive” society, which has become
increasingly dysfunctional.
That dream-scape ideal
of Victorian sociologists which came into being with the advent of
the largely unified mass middle-class has become but a distant memory
for many, and the over-arching social ideology requires a fundamental
're-boot'.
Presently one
(potentially dystopian) 'reboot' is being orientated by the
increasingly omnipotent Big Tech companies, led by Alphabet-Google
and its plans for the Toronto 'Keyside' area cyber-immersed
redevelopment.”To rejuvinate the area” is the apparent
mission-statement, without recognistion that the humans within it are
essentially 'digitally-dependent' and themselves not autonomous
beings, but effectively part of the machine, “ghosts in the
machine”.
It also seems, that in
a new era of slowly reduced Statism, that many central humanistic and
sociological 'stakeholder' considerations will be the remit and
remote responsibility of those powerful financial institutions (the
biggest pension funds, insurance funds, investment funds etc) that
operate as primary shareholders in new socio-technological ventures
that shape the everyday. These with little or no political leanings;
many of which are influenced by the non-partisan, socially lead
Norwegian SWF – the biggest singular fund owner in the world.
Thus whilst
infrastructure costs and 'pay back' periods will be scrutinised for
each project, so increasingly is the real-world 'CSR' impact, from
'Emissions to Education' to ensure as broad an advantageous outcome
as feasible.
Thus whilst there is
much talk of “HS2” (itself paradoxical in the digital age but
obviously serving construction sector – see previous comment) and
ideology of the “Northern Powerhouse” as big tractive economic
projects, the UK's corporate and political leadership must also look
at the basics of society's everyday functional activities for
substantive social improvement and financial re-balancing.
To this end, in an age
of social fragmentation, much increased individual worry and stress
and subsequent highly damaging behavioural outcomes, and wherein the
social institutions of the past that promoted respect, discipline and
meaningful learning (ie schools and universities) have become little
more than containment and profit centres, perhaps the only remaining
examples of the combined positive self and society is held within the
social ideology of the combined Emergency Services and their innate
moral precedence.
It is a moral lead
which western societies desperately need to re-awaken, invoke and
spread amongst its citizens so as to create social stability and
overall advancement.
And it is only via
compelling vison, new thinking, approaches, methods and technologies
that this could and should be achieved.
The R+D Challenge -
Details behind the
recent UK Budget highlighted the truth about Britain's position in
the world of today and tomorrow, and given the seemingly never-ending
televisual historical documentary boast about the country's past
achievements as leaders of the Industrial Revolution, today compariative efforts appear pitiful.
As a comparison: even
before advent of the autonomous vehicle, a typical auto-manufacturer
needed to spend between 4-6% of its turnover on research and
development, this the industrial norm.
Nations arguably have
more need and inducement to operate at that level to create society's
future, yet the UK ranked 13th out of 15 (largely western)
countries in terms of Public R+D at 1.7%, marginally beating Italy
and Spain, but far behind its best positioned counterparts which
spend approximately 4.5% and 3.0%.
[NB combine the
typically business connected efforts of the USA and Israel and the
combined spending is near 7.0%; little wonder that Jewish-Americans
seized the opportunities of the British invented internet for
enormous financial gain whilst the rest of the world fell well behind
in industrial terms].
Time indeed for Britain
to recapture its industrial heritage and actually live-up to the eternal
boast of past achievement.
The £2.5bn now made available for Innovation appears overtly small when compared to Housing's £44bn, so it will have to be directed very, very wisely.
The £2.5bn now made available for Innovation appears overtly small when compared to Housing's £44bn, so it will have to be directed very, very wisely.
Metamorphic
Modularisation -
One such avenue is via
an expansive re-design of the Emergency Service's mobile units
infrastructure.
It seems that over the
decades more than enough has been spent upon an ever bigger,
sprawling and complex - and so operationally problematic - IT
systems, which have absorbed enormous public funding and indeed
rightly added to available information for those Responders on the
street; whether Police Officers doing background checks, or Ambulance
Para-Medics able to see the patient details of a 999 call from
members of the public.
Yet in reality there comes a certain point of information overload or little added
value to those on the ground, and thus greater expediency can be
gained from a fundamental redesign of the major physical parts of the system
itself.
A more rationalised and
systemic approach which demands that strategic attention be turned
toward the physically mobile entities themselves, not simply the
digital communications system.
As illustrated
previously, past evolution of the Police, Ambulance and Fire-Rescue
depended upon the re-shaping reaction of watershed events (eg the
Blitz) to create adequate entities, but this is reactionary and slow
when foresight and proactivity is obviously required.
Thus a 'Big Picture'
plan is required to serve the remainder of the 21st
century.
A fundamental aspect of
this being a new totem or system pillar of Service Re-configurable
and Mixed Use Core Fleet “Van and Pod” Vehicle Infrastructure(s).
The attached graphic by
investment-auto-motives simplistically depicts such a future regards
basic 'Van and Pod' architectures, named 'Metamorphic Modularisation'
or indeed 'Metamorphic Metropolitan Modularisation' ('3M')
[NB this done to
deliberately invoke the innovative icon that is the moveable 3M
Post-It-Note, itself oblong and florescent, and so akin to an EMS
vehicle, aswell as a major producer of chemical-bonding solutions for
many variants of vehicle bodies, from coach-built van-bodies to
helicopter airframes].
The key aspect is to
view the Module Box as of prime importance, given the role the space
muct play to maximise cost and efficiency and the unrecognised
enormous potential for the continued evolution of duty-assist
equipment, propelled by much from the IoT (Internet of Things) to
proper ergonomics to make the Responder or Respond Group more able.
Those groups spanning:
Police, Ambulance, Fire-Rescue and the possibility of an additional
(light Para-Military like) Civilian Assist which can be deployed for
unusual and extreme major events, beyond the everyday and specialised
remit of the standard three Services.
The basis then is of a
Standardised Module System which can be Task Re-Configured and is
Future-Proofed in its construction to befit the conventional industry
evolution and deliberately UK EMS designed evolution of the
Prime-Mover vehicles, their changing drive-train types (ICE to Hybrid
to all Electric) and on-board power supply distribution (from 12V to
48V).
The basic graphic spans
a time-line that starts after initial research studies and
prototyping, and is set in 3 Phases.
Phase 1 :
Spans from 2025 to 2035
A basic redesign of
standard van chassis-cabs from Ford, Renault (also badged Vauxhall, FIAT and of course Nissan), VW, Mercedes-Benzand Peugeot-Citroen, that deploys repositioned lower mounted rear
chassis rails onto which the Module is positioned. This provides for
greater standard headroom and so usability, and echoes the changes
made to passenger cars in the 1920s and 1930s and to buses in the
1970s and 2000s, and the be. larger class of European campervan conversion companies.
This a relatively
low-cost alteration by the manufacturer, requiring a
frame-rail stagger and so localised strengthening.
Additionally the design
by manufacturer and client would focus upon the mating system for
Module Placement and Removal between Box and Van. With also the
potential Addition of a separate Trailer Module attached via standard
tow-bar, NATO-hitch or A-frame , so providing for the ability to
simultaneously deploy 2 complementary Modules.
NB. The fundamental design of the Module 'future-proofed' so as to be the vital and foremost item to which future power-units are attached.
NB. The fundamental design of the Module 'future-proofed' so as to be the vital and foremost item to which future power-units are attached.
Otherwise the vehicle
appears as normal, with the expected introduction of Hybrid drive by
manufacturers for Diesel and Petrol engines, and the possibility of
4WD with inclusion of a electrically-driven rear axle (PSA having led
this trend with its 3008 model)
Phase 2 :
Spans from 2035 to 2050
A radical redesign of
vehicle architecture, with the van now operating as a smaller scale
Tractor-Trailer unit. The van becomes a highly manouvreable short wheel-base 'Traction
Head' consisting of of motor and short 3-abreast cabin, pulling the
Module Box.
At this stage the inclusion of additional 'Extendor' units attached either front, rear, or both; so expanding the available capacity of the single Module.
At this stage the inclusion of additional 'Extendor' units attached either front, rear, or both; so expanding the available capacity of the single Module.
The option is to put
the Module Box on its own unpowered wheels front and rear to create a
'rolling chassis' or to use a smaller-scale conventional
tractor-trailer hitch system.
This mimics the
carrying methods seen between the 1920s and 1960s by ports and
industry in Germany and the UK, and at airports today, wherein the
'traction-head' (then the likes of a Scammell Scarab) would act as a
'tug' to the separate wagon.
Phase 3 :
Spans from 2050 onward
A radical redesign from
today, but natural evolution from the Phase 2 model. Herein the
Module again takes even greater precedence, itself the core body to
which a medium-sized powered 'Head' and /or 'Tail' is attached to
provide propulsion in either 2WD or 4WD forms.
These units being the
standard dimensions of the previous 'Extendor' unit, with Both 'Head'
and 'Tail' providing all-electric drive (hence pure EV) and providing
steering to either front, rear or both.
The latter especially
useful for cornering when the Module Box is lengthened (ie configured
with 'Extendors' front and rear).
Funding :
An 'off-the-cuff'
structure:
Phase 1 : 40% Central
Government, 40% Municipal Gov't, 20% Private Capital
Phase 2 : 40% Central
Gov't, 20% Municiple Gov't (gradual decline), 40% Private Capital.
Phase 3 : gradual
decline of Gov't sources to 100% PFI by 2050.
The Past Informs the
Future -
Historically, many if
not most new technological eras begin with the dedication of
government to both affect change and to later via PFI (Private
Finance Initiatives) to attract capital from the financial markets.
This achieved through direct seed and incubation funding or via any
necessary parliamentary clearance; and indeed both undertaken
simultaneously.
In recent decades both
the information revolution that is the internet and eco-technology
advancements have been often essentially created and initially
supported by the state; from academic labs to directly injected
exploratory innovation grants.
This seen yet again
today with the grant selection and approval process behind the former
automotive element of the Technical Strategy Board, leading to
'Catapult' activities. The analytical outcomes of which have led
to the nurturing of Driverless/Autonomous Vehicles in two development
hub locations: Milton Keynes (private 2 persons transit) and
Greenwich (public 10 persons transit).
The point to be made
here is that unlike the US (with its far better connected
banking-business-industrial leadership) the UK continues to be
largely reactive in its innovation stance (very much led by the USA),
not proactive, as it must.
And so inevitably lags
behind.
This situation, oft
told wherein the best of British innovation either stagnates or is
'stolen by' (ie the opportunity taken by) America, has to be
reversed; especially now that the UK looks to the rest of the world
for its future for new 'special relationships'.
Conclusion -
Given the complexity of
tasks dealt with by Police, Ambulance and Fire-Rescue services, those
in Whitehall with ultimate long-term policy creation, implementation
and budget responsibility for the Emergency Services should recognise
that it is high time for a well considered “back to the drawing
board” approach.
So as to provide
substantive long-term performance and costs improvement and to draw
upon the planning, design, engineering and delivery expertise of UK
plc to do so.
As seen previously,
there are many influences that can and should be drawn upon, not
least:
- Military
- Commerce
- Yesteryear Public
Projects
- Popular Culture
Yes, the vital aspect
of 'Modularisation' of the Emergency Services may at first appear
overtly clinical or indeed militaristic, but the devout rationality
of a military mindset behind the scenes does not need equate to a
seemingly paramilitary presence in urban, suburban, provincial and
rural areas.
[NB though the addition
of a 'civil defence force' (possibly beginning as an expanded
Territorial Army staffed by volounteer civilian “brigades” would
strengthen disaster relief reaction and capability]
Of course the gains to
be had from ever enhanced IT systems and better systems integration
will continue to appear attractive and so gain budgetary backing, but
the Emergency Services are a front-line operation, dependent upon
people and their machinery. And just as information processes can be
streamlined, so should much that is understood as the overtly
practical.
All that is sits within
the digital realm may be viewed as the glamourous arena for
productivity improvement, but it has finite limits, and as such
inevitably much reduced “units of marginal return” from ever
additional expenditure.
In the end, it is the
intersection between the people and their hardware that actually gets
things done.
Now is the time that
organisational leaderships of the Constabularies, Ambulance Services
and Fire-Rescue – both separately as distinctly nationally combined
singular forces and indeed combined mixed-forces – make a concerted
effort to investigate various scenarios regards the physical 'shape
of things to come' from the mid-term horizon onward.
Just how much a
'Metamorphic Modularised' system could vastly revolutionise and
improve the efficiency and effectiveness of what is presently a very
fragmented legacy-bound system must be explored in detail and with
true independence.
Over the next 5 years
we will continue to see the monies borne from Quantitative Easing
trickle-down into UK commerce. The ongoing low interest rate
environment providing a low-cost backdrop to what should be a
new-era, next-step change that should see PFI projects expand beyond
the standard strictures of rail, road, housing, education etc.
Privately invested
British industry reacted to the 1956 Suez Crisis with the emergence
of the 'modularised' 1959 Mini (with its radically re-invented
packaging, external body seams and rotisserie production). And
simultaneously saw the launch of a radically innovative public
investment with the advent of the 'modularised' Routemaster Bus. Both
of which thanks to wise mixed planning of private and public
transport transformed the everyday life of the masses.
The McMillan led
Conservative government won the 1959 general election for its third
term in office, in no small part thanks to the vitality and ingenuity
of a much revived British industry able to react to big-picture
issues with the knowledge of political and expected economic
stability.
The general base rate
during the 1950s was between 2 – 4% and see what was achieved.
Today we sit at an
historically unprecedented base rate low – which theoretically
should induce a massive impetus for low cost borrowing toward
investment in major public and private 'social transformation'
projects.
More necessary today
than since the end of WW2 given the enormous eco-socio-economic
challenges in our midst : climate change, ongoing social deprivation,
the wealth chasm between the 'haves' and 'have nots', and the still
very anaemic general economy.
Timely then that the
”IR” public-good edict of 'International Rescue' was morphed with
the “IR” acronym of 'Investor Relations'.
The UK's Industrial
Strategy requires not simply growth-sector identification and backing ranging
across the bio-sciences and artificial intelligence, but the
re-application of critical human intelligence regards the updating of the man-made systemic world we live within.
As ever,
investment-auto-motives continues to provide the thought leadership to do
so.
