Prescient Message for the 'Holy-Days'

Christmas is upon us, and all faiths in the Western world welcome an all too short reprieve from the utter madness of modern life

For the vast majority, everyday society has become the antithesis of the Xmas message, many too busy or absorbed to dissect the social machinations of the so called civilised world; both people and media generated, and often intermingled that keeps many within a state of worry and concern.

“Kick a dog, and it bites another dog” is the old, nasty but true adage. One that re-directs blame away from the source of true responsibility, to ferment blame, distrust and hatred within society for the social disinfrachisement experienced by differing groups.

[NB unfortunately, and all too ironically the only thing that aligns cross-group ethnic interests is money, whether legally or illegally obtained; the two sometimes merged and blurred].

That broad social anguish has transmuted into the rise of Popularism and Nationalism, that seeks to blame 'The Other' (ie the immigrant), when infact the woes of a nation should be laid squarely at the feet of past and present governments; not at those who sought better lives, often go without and fulfil jobs in which they work twice as hard.

It has always been incompetent economic planning – resulting in 'boom and bust' and 'great recessions' – together with a lack of old 'pull-together' values and consequential raised consciosness, that is at the root of fermented hatred toward 'The Other'.

[NB The only righteous exception that justifies dislike, when one ethnic group undertakes an unprompted social-war against a single individual or small group; typically for economic reasons so as to displace for their own ends. Such antagonists tend to think themselves clever via their methods, when in fact transparent and cumbersome; the ways of  what we today label as 'problem children'...little alters for the perceptions of such low IQ people, even decades after leaving school; which is sad for society at large].

Instead of working together, for the greater good, different interests are set against eachother; right versus left, indigenous versus immigrants, the two sexes, different generations; each side rationalises reasons to blame.

The result; fragmented fearful peoples awaiting new hope.

Internal discomfort, leads not toward enlightenment education, objective reasoning, honest debate and fairness, but instead eventually a 'zero-sum' game across society, where the naïve “suckers” who play by the rules of decency are 'led down garden paths' by a host of opportunitsts; from false prophets spouting 'Isms' to confidence tricksters saying they can turn a pot of pennies into a pot of gold.

[NB The collective Christmas Club fund the archetypal con-trick at this time of year, and seen virtually each decade. The typically poorer members of society put money aside throughout the year, only to see their collected and so sizeable Christmas present monies disappear along with those they thought they could depend upon. The disgusting aspect being that their 'friend' who convinced them to do so, remains with them after the scam so as to appear innocent, but all too often in league with the perpetrators].

We now live in a society where it is openly stated that inter-personal relations more than ever consist of “game”. (A deplorable euphemism for socially sanctioned manipulation to obtain an end). Whether that be 'playing' the shop-assistant for a refund on a once-worn party dress, or the abject untruths imparted upon prospective romantic partner, picked not because of who they are, but what they have or socially represent. Or far darker group aligned actions even within a family to marginalise and financially disinfranchise a person under a veneer of supposed 'Love' (Actually).

Christmas should be a time to escape the social lunacy, not become ever more embroiled in it; or even worse actually perpetuate it.

Whether religious, a partial believer or wholly agnostic, it should be a time for personal reflection, of what to do to become a better person - whether Christian / Muslim / Hindu etc. Not simply a time to act out the consumerist fantasy realm of the perfectly dressed, decorated and theatrical 'bauble-laiden' Christmas.

It all costs, often far more than many people can in realistically afford. And often people will 'rationalise' that if governments and companies can operate of vast piles of credit, why shouldn't their teenager get the latest e-gadget or a designer item thanks to the 'maxing-out' their credit card? And hey, the online discount e-code voucher means they are saving money doesn't it?!

Why bother to help secure a child's future-life with a savings plan and lesser presents, when 'the in thing' can be bought now for immediate gratification, and the grand-parents are good for a large sum when they depart. That's the modern mentality of even many middle-aged; who have never held themselves to true self-responsibility.

Capitalism is still part-broken in the West – concerning so in Europe, tracts of the UK and even in the USA with the large 'sub-prime' loan book on Autos.

And the real concern is what next to actually generate value and wealth for the many?

The Populism and Nationalism we see is merely a reaction, not a solution. Real solutions are needed far beyond the emotional rhetoric of 'string-up the globalist bankers' and 'close the borders', and a belief in one political camp or the other.

Proper, sound and meaningful socio-economic plans are needed to be seen and activated to rebalance an innately discredited modern model of Western Capitalism; that has failed its peoples. Liberal Capitalism moved Eastward 3 decades ago and was seen to be profoundly transformative for EM peoples, simply because it re-ran the 20^th century Western model anew elsewhere.

But for many, it appears to have “run-out of steam” in the West, and the profits and dividends are not being fairly, let alone evenly, spread.

Capitalism (and its personal gains amongst the then true 'liberal elite') once funded the Applied sciences, conceptualised, engineered and built machinary, erected factories for such machinary, constructed hundreds of miles of canals and railways, provided new much improved housing and hospitals. Elements that transformed Western society; for the good of all.

Today the worst of capitalism see billions plowed into a myriad start-up ventures, in the hope that one in one-hundred make it big (and so billions lost). Or channelled to cult-like leaders with 'disruptive dreams' who promote themselves as nigh on the next Massiah. Or directed toward the transformation of sectors and conglomerates through divestment and spin-offs, some worthy and value-adding, some simply 'blue-book' fee-taking schemes for savvy bankers who know how to cajole naïve board members seeking the ideal of 'unlocking value'.

Never as now, has capitalism needed better direction, and truly strong socio-economic PESTEL pivot-points upon which to leverage itself.

The 'Internet of Things' may appear to be a transformative pillar – making the everyday e-enabled – but far more must be done in re-designing the fundamental structures of our everyday.

[NB readers may remember my previously described and illustrated example per society's 'mobile infrastructure', with a radical yet rationally evolved transformation of Emergency Service Vans (Police, Ambulance, Fire, Specialist). Wherein designed-in high-value functionality is carried over in the Modular 'Pod' format (that becomes the central idiom) not the chassis architecture and propulsion units. It was a call for 'future-proofed' functional flexibility that generates new industry sub-sectors.].

At the social level, whether or not 'Brexit' (and maybe even 'Frexit') succeeds, Western countries will need to look beyond the unfortunate emergence of self-centric Tribalism.

(NB In this regard the French, with the unity of the peaceful (ie not Parisienne) Rural 'Gilets Jaunes' appear to see the bigger picture of social cohesion; something that many in Britain appear to reject).

Brexit means looking beyond Europe and toward the Rest of the World; from Africa to Indonesia. And whilst large pockets of that new opportunity are obviously Christian – USA, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Russia and variously in Africa; but much of it wholly unChristian and non-white: 'Yellow, Brown and Black' (in order of regional potential').

This the true irony of an inward looking Britain and its concern for regained independenace via New Nationalism.

Thus Britain must simultaneously operate as Britons: English, Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and also as true Internationalists.

The outcome possibly an even greater schism in the country, where the locals as small private business concerns operate grown and larger local economies within their counties and so obviously trade within the Realm.

But there must also be the Internationalists; and they will inevitably be drawn from cultures that reflect those of the Other countries with which to trade: the BRICs, MINTs and CIVETS.

Given the economic decimation of much of the country, from rural to even inner cities, “Britain for the British” is an understandable reaction.

But this Christmas, remember that the Cross of St George, within the Union Flag and Union Jack, derives from a character whose own roots stretch deep into the 'Middle-Orient'; a Saint for both Christians and Muslim. Infact, likely adopted by Christians from Muslims during The Crusades, so as to convert those within the sphere of influence of Christian coastal fortresses.

As the human origin and manifestation of the George Cross, Saint George has become an icon amongst those of the far right; who for many emerged as the voice of the over-looked and unheard – for very good reason - and inevitably reside within the 'dog bites dog' atmosphere that stems from long drawn-out hard times, blame upon the Other, and the hope for better times.

Those better times will only come from far better directed Capitalism, and will only come from maximisation of meaninful industry, services and trade both across County borders inside the UK and across Country borders far beyond.

Economic growth and social improvement depends upon not just leaders but the common-folk too. All powerful leaders throughout history, no matter how latterly depicted, knew this to be true.

It is infact incumbant upon the common man and woman to be as equally responsible for their own conduct and contributions, as that of their leaders....to invest in themselves for their own futures: spiritually, educationally and financially.

The game of 'noughts and crosses' may well result in a 'zero-sum' outcome; but the national and global game of Crosses, Crescents and many other Signifiers besides depends upon fairness, honesty and decency; and not under-handed, self-serving tribalism, hypocracy and deceit.

The West is in a prime position to once again conceptually change the face of human existence through new imagined and created futures.

But it will take far better and visionary Business Management at the sector and corporate level, and far better Portfolio Management and business interaction at the Institutional level to do so.

“Merry Christmas” to one and all..... from the Battersby's of North Yorkshire to the Watanabe's of Northern Yamanashi.

And remember, whether atheist or faithful-follower or anything between.... never make money your religion....since you will not own it.... but it will own you.

The fixation about money is the true lunacy of the modern age.

Macro-Level Trends – Reducing Automotive 'Socialised Costs' – Breaking-Down the Interdisciplinary (Crash) Barriers at MIRA, AAAM and Beyond

The last heavily moralistic web-log message of war remembrance deliberately utilised the initials of AAAM (An Alternative Armistice Message). Since mentioned here, done so not by chance, given the initials of an organisation called AAAM : the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine.

The fatally injured and life-long injured of war 'stand' (yet often sit) as both social reminders of events, yet also as modern-day social heroes; precisely because of the socialised 'fight the good fight' origins of their carried injuries.

Yet those killed or seriously injured as the result of a road accident are not similarly regarded by society; they all too often appear in the public consciousness as merely 'statistics' or as 'unfortunates'.

Perhaps the only exemption being a psuedo-hero status of the motorcycle rider, whether or not reflective of their own circumstances and reality, regarded as daring rebels of the road and so with some caché given the overtones of the Isle of Man TT.

(This year the name Dan Kneen added to the list of 260 lost road warriors since 1907)

Whether from war or road accident, those devastatingly injured require re-rehabilitation, itself different degrees of both physical and mental. The most robust individuals appear to 'come through'; though always mentally altered to some extent; even if a constant brave face endures.

Physical injuries sustained both then and now, range across a wide spectrum: from loss of limbs to facial reconstruction, organ transplants, bone reconstruction with mechanical fixings, to tissue and skin grafting.

Whilst the mental ranges from truly life altering Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and subsequent mental collapse, to in mid-stages the desire for revenge upon the enemy or the world at large for what has been endured. This stemming from the desire to emotionally transfer the depth of personal suffering to others, to gain an almost impossible shared experience and understanding that results from such deep suffering.

Within the military, even with complex training regimes, once separated from the military environment, the typical soldier cannot easily come to terms with the impacted reality of heavy warfare and its effect upon (typically) himself. For all the support and mutual bonding of fellow soldiers life is irrevocably different; especially when returned to 'Civvy Street'.

Whilst in civilian society at itself, there may be an equal (or infact even greater) argument to state that victims of severe road traffic accidents – who themselves are physically and mentally changed as a result – have a greater nightmare to live through. As a notionally normal, typically comfortable life – expanded by the freedom provided by vehicles - alters into what at worst feels to be utter physical dependency on others.

For all its profound improvements to life throughout the 20^th century, the car in the 21^st century has become increasingly demonised in society; primarily because of emissions pollution and grid-lock and obviously as carriers of death and destruction when portrayed in the worst light.

Thanks to across the board improvements in road-planning, driver training, vehicle design and road-traffic accident medical response and hospital capabilities, the experience of Developed Nations has been the ability to off-set the explosion of 20^th century vehicle use with a general trending decrease in the numbers of killed and seriously injured.

The accompanying graph is extracted straight from Wikipedia and illustrates the UK trend-line of those killed between 1926 and 2016.

By 1926 Britain had become a much mechanised society, the internal combustion engine changing the face of not just urban and rural roads but the broader countryside. Though by then dominant, ICE powered vehicles, from motorcycle to the small 3-wheeler Runabout to the AEC truck or bus, were simply another layer of road transport complexity; ontop of well established steam-driven giants, electric trams, the remnants of the horse-drawn and of course the plethora of bicycles. By the 1920s shared roadways were essentially semi-controlled chaos and thus unsurprisingly the statistics of 4,886 deaths conveys such.

That figure rose dramatically over the next 15 years, largely as the result of the rise of vehicle ownership. All too ironically, though many private cars had to be de-commissioned through the War, the death toll peaked in in 1941 at 9,169, because of pedestrians', cyclists' and drivers' inability to see each other consequential from the 'black-out' requirements specified upon motor vehicles; so as not to be seen by enemy bombers in the skies.

[NB In Europe, the use of the wartime 'letter-box' lamp-covers led to the vehicle manufacturers' adoption of low intensity “side-lights” after the war, which became standard use for many right up until the late 1970s; and avoiding the irritating glare (and light pollution) that has become so common today]

Death figures plunged between 1941 and 1950 to 5,000. People had became both used to heavier traffic conditions and had become more road aware. Whilst the re-popularisation of the private car on still antiquated road networks, led to road-network over-load, and the effective slowing-down of average speeds.

That trend would unfortunately reverse between 1950 and 1966 as car ownership expanded seemingly almost exponentially in the boom years and the young took to the road on 2, 3 and 4 motorised wheels. A mix of new roads (from dual carriage ways to By-Passes), increased vehicle speed capabilities, the glamorisation of speed (via personalities from Donald Campbell's 'Bluebird' to Marlon Brando's Triumph Thunderbird to Stirling Moss's Mercedes SLR to Audrey Hepburn's 'Pagoda' SL in 'Two for the Road' ) relayed an almost socialised need for a generation of young men, and some women, to prove themselves aswell as the inevitable rise of less obviously blame-worthy accidents. So for all the careful safety orientated new road-planning, a mix of testosterone on public road 'race-tracks', the inevitability of the much increased national 'car parc', and cars designed for production volumes and performance at a price – and not safety - meant a steep climb in death over those 2 decades.

However, that trend-line declined again – consistently so - between 1966 and 1998. It was obvious that even with still expanding car ownership and usage, the enormous focus upon safety - from many quarters - was having a very positive effect upon statistical improvement. From the professionalisation of driver-training, to the adoption of 'cats eyes' and 'deformable barriers', the increased demands of MOTs, advancement of vehicle body crumple-zones, the legal necessity of seat belt use , introduction of the breathalyser and that of speed-cameras, and ever more passive and reactive vehicle technologies: from anti-roll bars (in suspension geometry) to the gradual adoption of anti-skid ABS (in brake callipers) to interior fitment 'air-bags'.

It all meant the devils of injury and death were being better contained by society. By 1998, about 3,400 people had been killed that year.

The trend flat-lined between 1998 – 2004, as the result of a balance of increased miles driven in an economic boom period of high vehicle sales, with the potential greater number crashes off-set by the broadened application of better technologies in newer vehicles.

2004 – 2010 saw another marked decrease in deaths, from 3,400 to 2,000. This partially the result of continued new road-planning regimes enabled by bloated local government debt (such as policy-slowed urban rat-runs for children). And the more rapid update (ie newness) of the UK 'car parc' given the widespread application of all-inclusive 3 year lease-contracts on new cars; which itself provided for an increase in the pace of installed safety technologies as standard expectations in even small cars. This process itself sped-up thanks to the recognition and popularity of the Euro NCAP vehicle rating system; which became central to manufacturers' marketing.

And 2010 – 2016 saw another flat-line, this flattered by the result of both fewer miles driven (over the long recession period) and the real-world affect of high-content, standard-fit, safety tech across virtually the whole of the UK's modern vehicles.

That then is broadly the UK's story, which - with specific locational exceptions – is also largely applicable to Europe and the USA. In effect the Developed Countries' story.

But what of the EM regions?

Thankfully because of greater global economic and so consumer alignment – 'the global convergence' – today both AM and EM regions new cars come far better equipped (though to varying degrees with primary (ie accident avoidance) and secondary (accident reactive) safety systems.

But inevitably even new cars have different specifications dependant upon specific in-market characteristics that encompasses much : from price/cost to culture to regulatory demands; so as to provide for affordability, the manufacturer's profit margin and thus toward an expanding vehicle market to aid travel, communication, infrastructure investment and so private and public generated national economic expansion.

Yet many lower order EM countries in Asia, the CIS states, Africa and South America, because of less stable economies will often have a large 'grey-market' import basis in their good years. Which inevitably deploys a span of more aged vehicles of varying condition that range from the near new and well-maintained, to generally run-down to virtual death traps.

The best governments instil the lessons learned from the West regards rationalised and safety enhanced road planning, though usually in a very fundamental, basic manner per traffic management and flow. Yet still natives will philosophically and physically by-pass what they see as their contained new freedom on 2, 3, 4 or more wheels.

To any rational and globally aware person the road transport sights of much of the 2^nd and 3^rd world is both highly theatrical, absorbing and yet also deeply concerning.

Hence whilst the BRICs and CIVETS countries have been seen to slowly improve road infrastructure planning and creation to cope with the increase in vehicle numbers, as seen from the Youtube uploads of in-car cameras, there is still a massive disparity in road-use habits and culture across drivers, riders and pedestrians between EM and DM countries.

As the vehicles themselves become ever more 'safe', the very mentality of road users must likewise be improved dramatically – done so via public information films and the law - to avoid the high number of deaths caused by testosterone-fuelled and ego-fuelled drivers of all ages given the EM's greater proclivity of social stratification (ie 'status'), itself closely related to competitive ego (in men and women).

Developed countries and their governments – even today with stagnant and declining 'car parcs' of their own - will continue to seek to ensure a decline in the social and personal impact of road traffic accidents; especially so with the social push toward cycling and walking, so exposing more people to possibilities of road traffic accidents.

[NB given a strong focus on the need to better categorise road accident statistics, and the emergence of a large fraudulent road accident claim culture amongst petty criminals, the old term RTA has been expanded to include RTI: road traffic incident].

And what of the future?

For the past decade the concept of totally automated vehicle mobility has been a central theme of technology and broad media; deliberately broadcast so as to push the advancement of such technologies and their social acceptance.

As many have come to know, the accepted SAE definitions of automated driving spans across 5 levels : from basic assistance (such as predictive braking) at Level One, through to Level Five of complete automation (ie collection and delivery of the passenger without any driver interaction of vehicle propulsion and steering systems). Levels 3 and 4 are rightly contentious (requiring the irrational paradox of driver awareness whilst relaxing or otherwise engaged, without vehicle control, so as to intercede per a possible accident – a ridiculous 'no-man's land' and 'danger-space' in the real world).

At a truly achievable Level 5, the concept eventually leads to the notional concept of the physically and mentally all encompassing 'Cocoon'. Wherein a totally safety orientated vehicle and safety shell and interior provides for n insular environment in which to relax, sleep, entertain or work. It means the automated travelling adult becomes euphemistically 'cotton-wool wrapped' to become absorbed in their own mental-space, as s/he is transported

But any such possible outcome, beyond testing 'pilot' sites, is still many years away given the technology, infrastructure, policy and social acceptance complications of such a dreamt utopian 'sci-fi' vision

In the meantime, governments around the world must seek to protect their citizens from their own and others' road-going stupidity and carelessness.

And vitally, seek to improve the lives of those physically and mentally affected by the life-changing consequences of road traffic accidents.

One major platform within the socio-economic promotion of the recent past has been renewed fascination and resurgence of the 'Life Sciences'; now recognised as a high potential growth arena, devolved from Sports Sciences and increasingly directed toward e-tech consumer culture.

The rapid rise from the analogue ratchet-counted 'step-o-metre' to the iPhone enabled bio-diagnostic App has been astounding. The market for shaping consumer consciousness and providing solutions to that new awareness has grown enormously; as seen by the myriad of Start-Up, Venture Capital and Large Cap Company investments in this field.

There are profits to be made that satiates the health concerns of an increasingly phsyio-educated and so health conscious public – even if the real level of true medical education as opposed to 'medicised marketing' be relatively scant.

This emergent 'medi-tech' backdrop has its positive ripples spanning beyond the health anxieties of the average person.

It puts renewed focus upon the broader societal concerns regards public health.

That concern though has wavered over the decades and centuries. 

Migrating from the auditorium dissection tables of the 18^th century, and the dis-proving of 'miasma theory' regards spread infection, to in the late 19^th century the likes of Florence Nightingale, John Snow and Charles Booth and their vital use of statistics as geographically wide apart as both the theatre of war in The Crimea and London's Theatre-land and surrounding districts so as to track and locate the origins of disease, its causes, and the environmental specifics.

In the 19^th century, it moved into the formalised laboratory using the advancement of biology and chemistry with researchers such as Pasteur, Fleming, and the Curies. Research fields expanded to span a myriad of disciplines from Biochemistry to Zoology after recognition of Darwin's truisms about shared origins of species (as well known by those in distant antiquity given the similarity of skeletal and organ structures of mammals). But now taken further to encompass the biological breakdowns of divergent applications. Such as that of Keratin, spanning from the fragility of human finger-nails to toughness of rhino horns, to the massive spectrum of various animals' electrically governed bio-chemical nervous system, from human heart beats to the high voltage electric eel.

In the 20^th century the names of famous transplant surgeons such as Barnard, or the ground-breaking research of Crick, Watson and Wilkins per the unravelling of DNA, became public debate.

And in the 21^st century, the renewed focus on external and internal applications of bio-mechanics, ranging from improved vascular blood-flow valves to limb replacement prosthetics; together with a broadened approach to materials sciences and unrejected metals, plastics and composites.

That has opened up a new world of 'grown bio-materials' which can be sourced from Stem cells and formed around specific and cell-recognisable 'scaffolds' into known and yet discovered body replacement parts, ranging from ball-and -socket joints to possibly wholly grown organs.

Bio-engineering reflecting the advancements made in molecular engineering by the likes of Rolls-Royce Aero and its singular crystalline fan blade. If aeronautical parts can be grown in a lab, on this basis, why might not 'scaffold theory' work for at least some physiological replacement items? Though perhaps not all.

However, beyond the 'amazing science' stories, less publicised are the efforts of researchers in the specific research field of vehicle accident analysis.

Whilst after WW2, Britain and America had been testing the human limits regards aeronautical and space travel (specifically the effect of high 'G' applications) with test pioneers such as Beeding and Stapp, and the US Auto industry had long undertaken roll-over and cliff-drop tests to check body strength, in the USA, the realm of disciplined automotive crash research did not start until the mid 1950s using cadavers, animals and some live volunteers. Those methods soon replaced by anthropometrically devised 'crash-test dummies'.

These spanning a wide evolution from the initial 'Sierra Sam' to the latest Hybrid III and THOR model variations for different age ranges.

In Britain, such human-centric research work did not commence until 1968.

That year the research work of MIRA (the Motor Industry Research Association) was expanded under government edict to include vehicle crash outcomes on not only the vehicle structure, but also for the “human component” (ie the effect on adults, later children and eventually including babies).

The initial efforts regards 'head-on' crash tests were later followed by 'rear impact', 'partial off-set' test and later side-impact tests; akin to the USA.

Gradually, the learning from such testing started to become ever better structured, designed and complex. Feedback to the packaging engineers, structural engineers, interior engineers, trim and hardware engineers and electrical engineers providing a positive feedback loop to vehicle manufacturers for each successive new generation platform and model type.

But what of humans themselves?

Quite obviously, the 'live guinea-pig' efforts of Beeding and Stapp could not be morally replicated even by a willing participant. Thus, as seen, the technical sophistication of Crash-Test Dummies gradually increased to better reflect the 50th (and other) percentiles groups of Euro-centric humans at different age ranges (per height, body-type and mass). Leading to the Hybrid III 'model family'.

[NB since 2015 the auto-centric Hybrid III has itself influenced the evolution of 'WIAMan' (the Warrior Injury Assessment Mannequin), as created by the US Army, to replicate direct blast effects upon various vehicle 'hull' designs (flat-bottomed and sacrificial to V-hull)

Within the automotive realm, these ATD's (anthropometric test devices) now sit under global regulations for specification, but their evolutional path was arguably slow, given the schism between complexity and costs of testing for participant manufacturers, and the fact that for years they sought the issue of vehicle crash was best avoided so as not to spoil the automotive fantasy dream-scape that had been moulded into the minds of buyers through TV and showrooms.

Hence it was not until the mid 1990s – and the fear-effect of SUV roll-over stories and that of the original Smart Car and Mercedes A-Class – did the public become directly concerned and influenced by the issue of safety testing and performance ratings.

But, as seen with THOR's development progress, much depends upon the health of the auto-industry itself to pay for and progress new advances in crash testing itself. With economic recessions comes the typical hiatus in testing development, and also inevitably the closure of the specialist firm manufacturing the 'dummies'. And so today, as the result of this niche sector's previous bankruptcies and acquisitions, Humanetics and DentonATD are the providers of THOR

Given that real-world crash-testing is so expensive (inevitably priced within a new platform programme) and research laboratories wish to expand their own services, both manufacturers and crash-research labs have long explored the usefulness and limitations of Computer Aided Testing.

To this end, Britain's MIRA bought Creative Automotive Design Consultancy in 2003, two years after having been formally structured as a limited company; though actually seeking a non-profit basis so as to recycle fees back into the business over the next decade.

Yet this only one side of the Accident Research story; the precursive element that seeks to avoid and reduce road crash consequences.

There is obviously the counterpoint...

The world of anatomical / phsysiological, that deals with the very humanistic side, and so the medical research realm.

And within this are both a limited number of Medical Research bodies, and dedicated specialist equipment and instruments required within that field.

With this appreciation and vision of how to advance beyond the research and service limitations of 3-D CAD testing, it was the strategic imperative of Japanese firm HORIBA to purchase MIRA three years ago; to coalesce the Test and Modelling regimes with greater directly human-centric medical research, analysis and discipline advancement.

HORIBA designs and manufactures a wide range of research items related to Automotive Research and Development, Process Monitoring, Environmental Monitoring, In-Vitro Medical Diagnostics, Metrology, Semi-Conductor Manufacturing and and various Quality Control instruments.

Obviously it saw MIRA as a high value, very niche, 'bolt-on' asset to expand its spectrum of core business streams. And believes that a highly synergistic in-house economic eco-system can be both strengthened and expanded.

Beyond this, we enter the realm of true Anatomical and Biological Research.

This is the realm of AAAM : the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine.

It was established to act as the research hub for true medical professionals (not the pseudo-kinds abound today in broad society) to gain better insights into the medical perspective of the wide spectrum of vehicle related issues; from cognitive abilities of drivers in various stress inducing situations, to the need for global standards regards recognition and identification of transport related injuries.

That latter topic has been the central focus for a decade, through to the now increasingly recognised AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale) and ISS (Injury Severity Score).

As its website states...”the AIS provides standardized terminology to describe the injuries and ranks injuries by severity. Current AIS users include: health organisations for clinical trauma management, outcome evaluation....motor vehicle crash investigators, and researchers for epidemiological studies and systems development”.

Epidemiology is the research base that seeks to gain insights into fundamental patterns of public health. It's prime concerns being sound methodology, sound basis of data collection and sound formulation of resulting hypothesis. As such, analysis and conclusions are typically statistically communicated and so the discipline itself represents the latest evolutionary path first trodden by the likes of Florence Nightingale, John Snow and Charles Booth.

Just as a motor vehicle is a multi-systems based machine, so through the eyes of a physician is the human body. From the electro-chemical impulses that govern the nervous system, to the reaction processes within each sphere of the brain, to lung and heart capacities, to bone density, to muscle strength, and so much more.

So although hardly appreciated, human beings in their most basic interpretation are sentient organic machines. And it has been this very perspective of 'bio-system-engineering' that has allowed for the research and advances made by humankind; from Leonardo da Vinci's secretive anatomical dissections frowned upon by the church for its Enlightenment learning, to the latest efforts to match non-rejection materials with bone, tissue and organs.

But this is about as far as the broad systems comparison may go; the philosophical perspective.

Since for all the manufacturers' efforts to imbue more humanistic qualities (such as digital-PA voices, soft-touch buttons and cushioned interiors, the inorganic and computer-enabled vehicle is still the polar opposite of the organic and highly sentient human being.

The old phrase “oil / petrol in the blood” is only metaphoric, even if boy and girl street and track racers believe themselves to be extensions of their machines; or vice versa.

And given this reality, as much research and development work should and must continue in the enormously broad discipline of Transport Crash Research.

From the optimal seat designs and hi-concept escape methods of aeroplanes, to real-world wearable technology solutions for bicycle-riders.

Thus, the very notion of 'Vehicle Medicine' should be accepted and expanded.

So that the Research Institutions, Vehicle Manufacturers and Tier1 systems designers, can alike devise better Primary and Secondary Safety systems. And so likewise, the Medical Fraternity, from Ambulance Squad to Rehabilitation Specialist, can better treat the instances and results of physical and mental trauma...inevitably abound from higher and high-speed accidents; that the human body was hardly evolved to withstand.

All inevitably increasingly monitored by, and reliant upon, the rapidly emergent discipline of meaningful (not techno-marketing) bio-metrics.

Those who have been unfortunate enough to have been involved in heavy transport accidents, whether typically on land (or from the air) are rarely ever the same person again, even if it appears so.

And whilst the personality types of true heroes such as 'air-ace' Douglas Barder or racing driver Billy Monger, might jokingly see the 'upsides' of lost limbs, such as reduced driver weight and reduced potential for injury in any possible future crash; all is just dark-humour to cope from within.

Thankfully for years through disability driver schemes, the standard car has long been lightly to heavily modified to enable disabled drivers to take to the road, and done so without the stigma of the light-blue 3 wheeled 'Disability Carriages', last seen in the early 1980s here in the UK.

And thankfully the very stigma of disability and disabled driving has long-eroded from the public consciousness; the largely broader and more sensitive minds of the public recognising that 'people are just people' in whatever shape or form. Ironically increasingly seeing the application of bio-engineering solutions (eg titanium prosthetics and carbon fibre 'blades') upon the human form as imbuieing that person with super-human 'hybrid' status.

And TV programmes like Channel 4's 'The Last Leg' have done much to create general acceptance and so normalisation of physical disability; from multiple amputees to thalidomide affected adults to palsy sufferers and so much more.

And that is good news.

But road accidents are no laughing matter, for either the individual or society at large.

Servicing the effects of the aftermath (and other general disabilities) has created an economic eco-system of its own; from private rehabilitation centres, to mobility aids, to car and van modification 'coachbuilders'.

It is an ever expanding economic sphere that can and should be spread around the world; especially so to EM countries via governmental inter-trade initiatives.

[NB Let us remember, that it was in-part, Franklin D Roosevelt's humble offer of his wheelchair to King Ibn Saud that allowed the US access to the middle-eastern oil-fields].

But it is highly unlikely that such disability entrepreneurs are 'laughing all the way to the bank'; since many have experienced the heartache personally and so been drawn into the commercialised service of the lesser able.

But as the EM regions and world continues to take to 2, 3, 4 and more wheels in their own search of freedom and status aspiration; so the breadth of Healthcare and the Bio-Sciences connected to the automotive world will multiply.

Hopefully so in a direct proportion of a reduction in worldwide vehicle accident rates and consequentially shattered lives.

Let the dire lived realities of those who are remembered in the previous 'An Alternative Armistice Message' inform and improve the lives of those today who find themselves physically and mentally altered by (on a travel-distance logged basis) the increasingly rare major transport accident.

Since human physiology will hardly evolve at a pace, the 'unnaturally' fast machines that rapidly traverse road, rail, sky and sea, must, as standard practice include in their development, greater crash research analysis, at vehicle and human levels, and critically their intersect. And of course the aftermath effects of crash trauma, treatment and after-care services.

The vital realms sit between (wo)man and machine.....vehicle crash-testing and physiological / psychological human-repair.

An Alternative Armistice Message

If you partake in the latter you deserve the former.

Never forget those who fell, and what they fought for.

Nor the lives of those dramatically changed by harrowing events and experiences; and the loss of their loved ones.

This seen on even the home-front.

From the loss of food-convoy merchant seamen born and bred in the likes of Milford Haven, with a last imaginary kiss from their own 'bomb-shell' blonde taped to their bunkbeds; to the perennially exhausted locomotive stokers, steaming through a thousand little towns like the latterly imagined 'Milford Junction', dreaming of their own 'brief encounter' with wives, girlfriends or new loves, yet to come.

And the 'never to return' heroines of the ATA who ferried their craft not across safe waterways, but the lonely and exposed skies, looking down upon church bells and up into the heavens; with only a good luck charm to see them safely through.

So, at time when much of the UK still needs social healing; let the best aspects of  those who endured those dark days be not merely remembered, but serve as true inspiration.

They would be dumb-founded at modern society and the deluded arrogance of self-styled "heroes" whose lives are merely a comfortable patchwork of 'Isms' and misdirected anger, so far removed from the true inner-strength of the real 'Rosie the Riveter' or 'Trenchline Tommy".

May the true heroes and heroines all rest in peace.

And let modern Britons understand precisely why it was fractured societies and civil unrest across Europe that led to the atrocities that happened.

Don't be led by 'Ism's'....just be led by decency and fairness for one and all.

Macro Levels Trends – Brazil – Latin America: WEF 2018 : New National Strategy on Industry 4.0

The previously depicted 'Welcome to Britain' sign at UK airports is an obvious metaphor of the 'doors open for business' mantra that the country wishes to convey to the world.

Whilst the European economy, though slowly improving, still struggles with geo-economic fractures between north and south, Britain invariably looks to a resurgent USA for near term 'easy-reach' prospects and the BRICs, MINTS, and CIVETS countries for mid and long-term opportunities.

Over the course of the last 4-5 years the EM nations have been variously affected by a mix of their own slowed export markets to the West, a commodities slump, the shock of real and technical growth contraction, deflation, currency weakness and its problematic 'spread' affect upon short-term over-indebtedness of national and business borrowing raised in US$.

All of this before the spectre of trade wars arrived, and the consequential volatility created by political rhetoric to both appease and ferment 'New Populism'.

China has managed its slowdown well, by looking inwards, slowly reforming sectors, shrinking all forms of credit and continually deflating its stock market (previously in 'bubble-pop' territory). Within today's shrunken world, India has had to try to rebalance its innate dynamic, between slowed foreign earnings in IT outsourcing and basic export goods, whilst and kick-starting internal growth across its newer and older industries. This assisted of course by its efforts to integrate and formalise what has historically been a large black-market economy by enacting currency regulation so as to make that once invisible money materialise in local banks. So providing new and better regulated lending to businesses and consumers. As per Russia, the Putin-Trump talks in Helsinki saw the hot-topic of Syria put to one side to promote a mutuality that could over time range from American importation of cheap CNG, timber-products and agricultural basics; in return the USA assisting Russian expansion of its internal Capital markets.

Yet it is arguably Brazil that has seen the greatest economic 'turnaround' - even if recent data is again lacklustre -  and thus investment-auto-motives returns to its focus, as per the World Economic Forum talks of six months ago.

The last few Brazilian weblogs looked at Infrastructure and Corruption, before entering the World Cup with Pele as national ambassador.

Though the very much needed, the Economic Reforms Brazil have still not been enacted and would not have been until a change in government. Those changes vehemently opposed in various quarters, ranging from the civil service to independent trucking, respectively regards pension pots and loss of fuel subsidies. The country has been seen to successfully extract itself from a previous heavy technical recession; as a new faith in entreprenerialism is boosted by the digital age (the on-line growth of Mercadolibre creating thousands of micro-retailers, just as ebay did in the West). So driving a new era of possibilities for self-made small business people, even if the delivery network can prove often problematic.

Such new possibilities have set a new tone, with people increasingly adopting and adapting to the digital age, and seeking their niche place within it; often both on the street and on-line; so encouraged by the notion of greater commercial possibilities, and listening to those political candidates at Federal and State levels who offer incentives for business; inevitably the situated on the Right.

The political Left has weakened – seemingly significantly so - given the Lavo Jato corruption scandel (amongst others) in which senior government officials were complicit, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff (herself the poster-child of the yesteryear ideals of Brazilian Socialism), and the jailing of Inacio Lula da Silva.

With 46% of the first-round vote recently, Bolsonara appears comfortably positioned. He follows in a Trumpian manner, loud and periodically immaturely crass about Liberal issues. Such words appear overtly sensationalist to obtain favour with the Catholic and Evangelic masses. But given his admiration for the country's previous military-led strength, and history of structured patriacian society - good per stability / bad per opportunism, Brazil might 'under the radar' see a backward shift. Not against women (who make up increasing numbers the workforce within the tertiary sectors) or the 'less-abled' (given the Paralympics), but regards social assistance to the marginalised ethnic minorities (esp Latino-black and the Indigeneous Tribes) who gained most under the Left, with new voices and social programmes.

Whether Bolsonaro's 'loud-mouthing' is populist 'election talk' or not remains to be seen; but likely he will be be more prosaic in Office. He seems to be deliberately mimicking Trump, the difference being that the international friction Trump created from blundering bravado is countered by both Diplomatic real politik and importantly the US's massive international economic strength. Brazil does not have the same economic sway on the world stage, and as a country that posits itself as seeking only international friends and no enemies. So any such continued political blustering would mold him more as political philistine rather than a 'philosopher king'.

That said, sometimes 'loud words' are required to deter the now near ubiquitous 'passive-aggressive' behaviour that has come to be a near norm in hyper-liberalised societies (Brazil long so); where 'social game-playing' means meaningful truth and trust are swamped by personal aims cloaked via ideological agendas. 

But positively for Bolsonaro he set those words against his own son, who in the public limelight had the temerity to relay a closet threat to the very heart of the Court system.

Thus presently the expected Premier appears a contradictory figure, yet also in the idiom of the yesteryear 'Patron' to ensure stability. To that end Bolsonaro ought to in Office act with 'quiet words and a big-stick', created by a cohesive, visionary and dynamic Cabinet and Government and a Military that subtly leads society by example not by might.

And much can be learned from history.

The history of Brazil, with swings between an internally closed market (ie Import Substitution), an open market (Export and Import Promotion) and the oft reality of a 'merged market' economy (in transition between closed and open) has meant that industrial strategy has followed the bias of the concurrent political climate.

That meant long oscillations between pro-globalist Capitalism (ie inputs of 'profiteering Americanism' vs 'conscientious Europeanism' ) and the anti-globalist Socialist slant (ie 'self-sufficiency') tho' ironically deploying foreign IPR, management and plant.

Thus by examples in automotive we see the major impacts of GM, Ford, VW and FIAT per investment scale in factories, high product volumes and high-quality technical standardisation, strong marketing and enticing dealerships. (In the 1960s the auto-sector was the 'sine qua non' of national modernity and influenced the face of retail enormously). This compared to the home-grown; the likes of domestically created Gurgel with far lesser funding and expertise, ;limited investment scale, low vehicle volumes, low-quality technical resolution of innovative vehicles, and ironically still with MNC VM reliance for essential components.

Thus unsurprisingly given the historical dependence upon FDI and its technical transfers: from basic air-cooled boxer engines to second generation 1980s semi-conductors to 21^st century IT software; successive Federal governments have been slow to form an effective proactive industrial strategy beyond agriculture and primary industries. And have instead been reactive and opportunistic to any and all foreign overtures regards 'near to far horizon' technologies. By maintaining a very loose (almost non-policy) remit across its sectors, so as not to discount or negate new possibilities.

Thus it has been left to domestic and in-situ foreign companies within sectors to form their own progressive research, development and implementation efforts, assisted by either state-level public spending (eg Rio's smart city evolution) or within more prosperous periods, their own exploration into B2B and B2C possibilities.

Little appears to have changed in recent years, this informal reactive policy stance seemingly deepened further by the contraction ripples of the recent recession.

Yet Brazil at both Federal and State levels should and must alter its stance across all industrial and commercial sectors. More proactiveness and so progress seen in a few examples, such as the large NE city of Recife in Pernambuco, where its own evolved 'Silicon Valley' has off-set under-scaled and under-invested industries that too soon have become seen to be 'yesteryear' and 'twilight', given contrast to the digital age.

And even though other efforts have been made, such as the rise of the Culture Industry in Sao Paulo, the drive behind the Recife ambition has not bee replicated elsewhere to the same effect.

An Industrial and Services Strategy must be more than mere words upon a copy+ document that spouts the archetypical norms of Business and Trade Planning. From what little has been guaged, it needs far better direction, across everything from not only IT and the 'Knowledge Economy', but Agriculture to Zoology, via Pharmaceuticals, Health Sciences, Advanced Materials, Defence Systems, Aerospace, Truck and Bus, City-Tourism and Eco-Tourism, aswell furthering efforts toward ever-more connected Smart City Infrastructures. 

Brazil requires New Visionaries to create a new highly integrated eco-socio-economic national template; one that takes many steps forward into the future. To reflect upon the origins of Brasilia and the Costa-Neimeyer achievements is an obvious start, but Brasilia was far easier as clean-sheet approach based upon simply architecture and infrastructure.

The new societal 'starchitects' would require a greater span of knowledge and insight, to fit all the pieces of a futuristic, yet practical, socio-techno-economic jigsaw together. 

A jigsaw in which different commercial sectors are able to properly inter-connect and cross-inspire.  

Whilst the very lassaiz-faire attitude toward FDI and new sector development has in the past captured new possibilities, it appears as if done so since the 1950s/60s on an almost ad-hoc basis. Much dependent upon the inclusion of Brazil into the long-term business plans of Multi National Corporations. And whilst Brazil has undoubtedly 'set up its stall' to attract inward investment at different times, it has not seemingly properly guided, led and enticed. FDI outcomes more attuned to the worldwide geographical expansion plans of companies with either surplus cash, their own national state-backing or reactive to the perceived success of a direct competitor in the country.

Brazil needs far better national business planning beyond the provision of basic infrastructure and the new government initiative to use an e-based Business Portal as simplistic assessment mechanism of high potential future businesses. That is if it truly wants to fulfill its Olympic pledge of becoming a true leader amongst the EM nations.

The likely incoming President Bolsonaro would do well to question the industrial planning policies of the recent past (such as the historically binary 'on-off' policy-switching of a semi-conductor sector), and could (arguably should) use the State as an innovation generator, the Military an obvious primary innovation channel, with the possibility of quasi-commercial start-ups, off-shoots and divestments. And so replicating the likes of Britain's QineteQ plc, to bolster the bottom and mid-level areas of the BOVESPA.

And the beginnings of a new era change is now being exemplified by metamorphic grass-roots commercial activity; the prime initiative being the national plane-maker Embraer as it reshapes itself after creation of the 80%-20% Boeing Alliance on mid-size passenger and freight planes and global service. 

Aside from its close involvement in that JV, it will likely seek to expand its military and specialist interests. So marking re-orientataion toward specialist led innovation in airframes and systems for and newly growing domestic and targeted international markets. Thus not simply relying on Boeing, even though it will add enormoulsy to its order book. (The very fact that the UK's MoD appears to view Boeing as an immediate preferred supplier (as opposed to Airbus) in heavy military aerospace, means possible trickle-down project opportunities for Embraer and so enhanced learning for Brazil; as Boeing deploys Embraer Engineering as a lower-cost provider of small project and part-project engineering solutions) .

To return to the WEF Forum....back in mid-March a central pillar of the conference was the issue of developing New Directions for Industrial and Services Strategy.

A prime aspect of that being the spread of digital infrastructure, networks and business and populace usage

The previous WEF Debate on....“New National Strategy on Industry 4.0”:

[As before, comment by investment-auto-motives is seen in the squared parenthesis]

The Attendees:

Chair

Luis Augusto de Ferreira – President of Brazilian Industrial Development Agency

Marcos Jorge de Lima – Minister of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services for Brazil

Poalo Rebello de Castro – President of the Brazilian Development Bank

Ronaldo Camargo – Vice-Pesident Finances d'Estudez d'Hibroto (FINEP - Social Dev Bank)

The Chair opens by asking the Minister to talk about the new strategy.

de Lima -

“Thanks to all, including those in and beyond Brazil, to Germany and the USA.

Throughout 2017 we've been shaping collaborative work so as to define the best structure regards connectivity, industrialisation, modernisation etc. Some of those elements are pivotal to allow companies themselves to be transformed. The ABDI Initiative obviously relates, so we can undertake some real tests for 4.0, and the importance of COMEX for those items not produced in Brazil.

“We also want to respect the RN12 national decree, with modernisation of regulatory norms and the 'de-bureacratising' of government systems to assist companies and aid productivity and so competitiveness. Professor Schwabb has done much in this regard. Thanks also to the government cabinet such as the Science and Technology ministry.

[Mention of 'RN12' believed to be the NR12 decree regards workplace safety, but also highlights the known cross-border and pan-continental importance of the RN12 routeway across Argentina].

The Chair asks the Brazilian Development Bank about the background to the financing and the banks role:

de Castro -

“Like to thank BNDS (Brazilian National Development Bank) and the short and mid-term loans regards innovation and technology. BNDS's has been working for 66 years since 1952 on Brazilian modernisation, through several phases (1.0 – 3.0) 3.0 being the banking system, and Petrobras since 1974 with electrical, hydro and nuclear power, our petro-chemical and steel industries now up to date and of course bus manufacturing.

[Perhaps of all the industrial sectors mentioned, it has been hydro-power and bus manufacturing (pre-empted by cars and vans) that have been the most obvious in demonstrating eco-consciousness and the need to set human capacity to skilled work. Driving that mix of ecological energy and creative human potential – far beyond the professional classes - should be seen as a central policy platform.

Whilst very important, in the Transport arena the nexus of nuclear-electrical energy has been relatively self-contained as seen with aborted EV vehicles projects of the 1970s, deferred to bio-sourced ethanol 'eco-energy' instead. And ironically there is an argument to say that petro-chemicals with expansive influence from plastics production to animal feedstock, has been the complimentary beneficiary of Hydro-sourced eco-energy. The plastics element highly and increasingly influence regards high-value vehicle production that has formed much of the backbone of modern Brazilian industry to date, across Autos to Bus and Truck to Aerospace.

The importance of making material things – ecologically sound products – however appears over-shadowed by the trendy focus on all things digital, ethereal and so 'de-materialised'].

“The 'de-materialisation' debate is the new theme, and spans the small scale to large, with obvious relevance to start-ups and large industry's research and development efforts”

[With Returned paradoxical focus on semi-conductors (the very enabling material of the 'de-materialised')]

“Semi-conductors may be restarted in Bel Horizonte if and when given the final green light. Innovation has been with us for years, but the new Strategic plan goes out to 2035 with a challenging vision, and so a BNDS priority to enhance investment with the capital of others”.

[As the digital era continues into the IoT, the importance of advanced electrical systems and componentry will grow exponentially; as seen previously in personal electronics, now increasingly seen in the morphing of the private and public realms via 'The Cloud' regards part and whole infrastructure developments. Thus the previous focus of 'semi-conductors and sensors' becomes ever more important.

But – as stated previously – Brazil's development progress in both spheres has been problematic. The semi-conductor industrial strategy stalled for over a decade, and without proper attention the same could happen with sensor technology development, manufacture and fitment. With the advent of intelligent infrastructure and increasingly autonomous vehicles, Brazil must maintain full commitment to this field via its publicly assisted and private enterprises. Otherwise it will again loose-out to the strong capabilities of SE Asia in cost and US/Europe in functionality and quality].

“Innovation is again being highlighted to 2035, whilst we continue in the 'Knowledge Era', where information is a prime factor, so leading to the IoT, and Big Data in 'The Cloud'. It relies upon the proliferation of sensors; spanning personal bio-tech to agriculture, or the facial recognition scanning for the identification of people. So we must investigate as to how such sensors can increase productivity and safety with the BR80bn in state and federal security matters.

“So the bank is deeply involved in innovation, so establishing priorities within the budget as done. But the bank's incentives go through different lines not just one. As regards modernisation via robots, we could evolve from BR1bn in 2018 to Br1.5-2bn next year, so 100% growth, leaving us BR5bn, but the bank does not have a limit. If Brazil leaps in that direction (PESTEL dependent) the bank will be ready to face new budget challenges.

[Whilst eBNDS obviously highlights financial provision, the vital matter is that of spending such funds strategically well.

Brazil must undertake an exhaustive analysis of the intelligent products and intelligent infrastructure sphere, so as to ensure it backs the right technical solutions and players at all levels, across indigenous seed-funding and incubator-development to foreign transplant manufacturing roll-out and scale-up, and through life-cycles, so as to obtain as long a technical and enterprise lifespan as possible. Thus ensuring not only return on initial investment, but a secure commercialised income stream over many decades, so fulfilling the reform measures of BNDS itself by the government].

The Chair asks the the V-P of FINEP about what's expected from his agency

Carmago -

“Thanks to all. FINEP and BNDS work closely, and not just on future innovation, but also that already underway with the first semi-conductor company.

[First efforts date back to the early 2000s when seeking Japanese FDI in the sector, to replace and update previous 1980s derived technology factories. The closure of those plants in the late 1990s and the delayed introduction of newer semi-conductor capabilities effectively left a technology capability chasm for the country.

Much of today's policy mentality stems from the strategy conference 'SEMI' per a pan-LatAm template regards production and design of this significant sector, since before the last meeting of 2015. But Brazil is well aware of its deficiencies in this arena compared to both AM and other EM countries.

To counter this disadvantage, the lure of tax deductions and abolitions is an enticement by the likes of Sao Poalo and Rio de Janeiro, but to date the start-up project costs of about BR4bn have undermined, given that it is two-thirds of the annual import costs of BR6bn of electrical components from abroad.

Furthermore, sector experts highlight the need to properly build a support structure for the sector across eduction and professional development, so as to properly fuel such a newly rejuvenated (effectively start-up) sector, though research centres are already in situ.

Presently 4 companies exists from FDI, private local funding (partnered with IBM) and state sources. The FDI being South Korea's HT Micron and USA's Smart Modular Technologies, national private being Unitec and from government Ceitec dedicated thus far to sensors].

“FINEP is 50 years old - so been throughout the Tech Age – and wears two shoes:

1. Non-Refundable Financing: via The National Fund for Scientific Dev. on 26 projects.

2. Refundable Financing:

[At this point the language translation is lost for ten minutes before returning during de Castro]

de Castro -

“Our Industry 4.0 portal is already live, a tool for the test of 4.0 Industry, tests in virtual and physical environments, assessed on their level of maturity, and the need of each company. This is a new era, with the opportunity to foster with tax exemptions, financing with attractive interest rates, Connection Start-Up that does what it says between small and large companies.

“This is about Brazil leaving behind a crisis and creating anew, with real expectations of GDP growth, from -3.5% 20 months ago to this years +3.0% growth.

The Chair asks the Brazilian Industrial Development Agency to expand upon those comments

Ferreira -

“We've been talking about 4.0 for a long time, and these people on the panel are responsible for the execution. The good times are back, with new recovery. This allows us to invest with more precision directed at Tech and IoT sectors. There is talk of 'Re-Industrialisation' but in essence it is just restructuring of Brazilian industries, adjusting to new global trends, value chains, energy efficiency. Prof Scwabb highlighting the importance of the latter.

“We have an initiative called Productive Brazil, that includes alliances with over 3000 companies around the world on the issue of energy efficiency. Costs could be reduced by 20-30%.

Also the matter of labour, this now based upon intelligently used data, but it is the humans behind the machines which are key, so we must prepare public managers as properly up-skilled professionals for 4.0.

“Another aspect is that Brazil is on a path of effective initiatives, with self-diagnosis of our industries with test-beds and funding lines, and the private sector must be convinced of the recovery. This government has been doing reforms so as to create a leaner country with better skilled people. Also, who will benefit from the machines? Will it be an elite or all?

[It appears here that in the age of supposed de-bureaucratisation that the government – via its web-based 'test-bed' system – will be the effective arbiter of the winners and losers within the commercial world. The web-based submission and analysis criteria and outcome that affects the destinies of many enterprises.

Needless to say, this very system – the funnel - may be open to manipulation, with subtle assistance to those firms it wishes to see prosper into tomorrow and subtle denial of those it does not. Furthermore, such a system may be far too simplistic, overly complex, or possibly biased, so unable to properly assess the undoubted great variability and respective SWOT of the many submission companies].

“Initially this will be about large companies, but will trickle-down to SME's such as farmers needing information, quality data and use to retailers. This already seen elsewhere in the world. So its about education, technology, and a new 4.0 mindset.

“This will change society. Already 5% of industries have responded, and within 20 years we want 15% to have evolved. We must be bold and talk about jobs, and banish the idea of lost employment. Over the next 20 years we will create over 200m new jobs in some positions we don't even know right now

[Such statements demonstrate the illogical rhetoric often stated behind the IoT transformation. It is plainly ridiculous to state “over 200m new jobs”, then to highlight the ignorance of what many of those new jobs might be. Managing the transition to avoid mass unemployment and resentment is vital if Brazil and LatAm is not to experience popularised anti-sentiment, C21 'Tolpuddle Martyrs'. Undoubtedly Brazil will follow the lead of AM countries in its subtle social-engineering, but with greater proportional ethnic diversity than many AM nations (whose 'diverse' populace is actually relatively small and very urban-centric), Brazil faces a greater challenge to truly include those who feel themselves (intentionally) neglected or under-assisted].

“The question is how to prepare new generations? What will these new jobs be? Our policy is based on diagnosis, financing of BR10bn and the need for scale. We were given the freedom in the Ministry to work and achieve much in a short period.

[A properly planned and executed industrial employment policy is needed; from proper and meaningful implementation of male and female military conscription (to serve and learn specific capabilities) through to the idea of a new approach regards through-life modular-based university learning (e-based and campus-located), through to improved overlap between academia and commerce in dedicated work placements aswell as conventional high level research and development, This to vitally reach many more young people and so help direct their own futures toward growing industrial spheres.

And the question remains as to exactly how much has realistically been achieved by the Ministries, beyond the usual big schema of adapted conceptional powerpoint presentations, originated by the likes of PWC, KPMG etc.

Is the policy setting just 'Brazilian branded' work of the management consultancies, or has each sub-element been explored relative to true national and regional Developmental Planning needs?].

The Chair asks the audience :

One audience member from AT Media asks:

“Going back to the idea of company absorption of 4.0, it is said that in 20 years 15% is the target, but this seems low compared to elsewhere?”

Ferreira -

“In Germany for instance, they invest about Euro20bn per year in 4.0 industries, but this is not part of the Brazilian reality.

At Media again -

“Connectivity is key, this structure permeated by connectivity. The new policy was set-up in the last one and a half years, but what can be done to ensure this stays with any new government in office?

Ferreira -

“I come from Start-Ups, and these policies are state based, not federal. Any new government will be able to use the 'diagnosis data' being created right now, with Ministry technicians that have been there throughout and hopefully will remain.

Business News America asks...

“Thus far the strategy has taken one and a half years with a delay. Why the delay? And what exactly is the strategy about? We have financing via BNDS and the 'test-beds', and tax exemption for robots, IoT, the plan for digitisation....is that it? And how do we tie together all the policies the government has?

[At last somebody 'cuts to the quick' about the policy rhetoric heard thus far, and the lack of true meaningful clarity].

Ferreira -

“Industrial Policy started to be debated in 2003, these policies undergo change, such as that in the Chemical Sector with its research and research takes several decades. So for those sectors we can debate policy but it takes longer. In the Auto industry we had ten year cycles in Brazil, now 5 years, whilst Germany has 3 years. Cars become a software and service platform.

[This is a poor answer. More perhaps to do with the need to feed Brazilian bureaucracy and the comfortable positions of the country's elite, than convincing enquiry, information and recommendations.

How is it that Germany or Japan can set out an evolutional yet well directed government policy via close talks with industry that reach outwards for respectively 50 years and 100 years? And that even a 'de-industrialised' UK can create a new Industrial Strategy effectively from scratch in 2 years: focused on specific sectors with new development opportunities and its 'Catapult' initiatives to propel high-potential activities from research into scaled production?

As per the Auto sector, the lifespan of a specific platform is not the basis for a sector's planning of industrial policy; that may have been the case in the 1950s and 1960s with VW and even regards FIAT in the 1970s, but since the 1980s Brazilian made vehicles have been closely associated to or directly based upon global platform products, and so better better able to understand Brazil's role in any one manufacturers' global production plans and its need to be a convincing national market and internationally competitive, as seen with production of Palio and Fox models.

The fact is that it is Brazil's deficiency of a robust IT and Electronics industrial base (far beyond sensors) that directly supplies modern modular vehicle platforms (hardpoints-hardware-software) that is the country's biggest global auto-sector disadvantage presently, even if the Real is presently strong and stable to encourage reduced-cost bought-in e-components from SE Asia.

Such a simplistic answer makes Brazil's leadership appear under-informed, haphazard, ad hoc or indeed driven by other agendas].

“The delay was because the government was not acting as speedily as the private companies it was dealing with. We could not rush so as to have a sound policy, but could not delay to loose the momentum. The delay connected to issues regards the urgency of innovation and the 'analogue' feature of the public realm.

[This a more candid answer].

“We did much in a year and a half, but we had a basis to work from, and experts about 4.0 and Brazilian competitiveness.

“The tax exemption for (internet) 'bots' is only one pillar amongst others, but the use of 'bots' has a real impact in an e-world.

“To talk about 4.0 in Brazil is different to that of say South Korea or Isreal. Most of our country is still working with commodities, not information technology, hence why we need a self-diagnosis.

“We are inviting each industry to our website for that self-diagnosis, from maybe 1.0 or 2.0 types of companies [low down the value chain in Primary and Secondary sectors]. So it is a journey. We are taking advantage of digitalisation to go from 1.0 to 2.0 and 3.0 to 4.0. And in 15-20 years we want a completely different type of industry.

[This appears to have an element of back-fitting technology to yesteryear processes.

With the possibility that Big Data companies of today get to understand and measure every process and value-additive dimension of Primary and Secondary industries. In short able to 'see inside' what have been typically low transparency sectors to date, which in today's world often rest under the control of large state or semi-state run organisations].

And the idea of an industry 'self-diagnosing' per the criteria and remoteness of a government web-site rather than specifically set-up sector specific senior-level working groups – who should know about strategy and 'pure' and 'applied' strategic outcomes appears somewhat myopic.

The government's Industry 4.0 Strategy appears overtly focused upon the aspect of digitalisation, perhaps at the expense of any one sector's bigger picture and combined the bigger picture for Brazil].

“As regards the challenges, I've learned to respect the structure of the public realm, and in the Ministries of Industry and Foreign Trade we have amazing technicians. We have people who think like private companies, but we have boundaries around the structure and the problems of communication. Having all the different bodies here is a miracle.

[This highlights the disfunctionality of Brazil's public realm, the endemic silo-effect that existed for so long in the 1980s/1990s should have been demolished many years ago, but plainly has not. It should not take a WEF Forum to create such a rare meeting; this bureaucratic problem an obvious obstacle to Brazilian development, and the danger of a fragmented government without truly aligned thinking and action leading what is likely as less than convinced and infact quite 'digitally dubious' private sector Brazilian companies; that have long been in the hands of effective 'Nacionale Patron' families and boards].

Another audience member from a Soa Poalo newspaper -

“What is the strategy about? What the difference that BNDS is already doing/ What will happen differently in practical terms? Also grants for professors and 20 start-ups, is that correct? And I don't understand the financing numbers exactly?

[It is concerning that the outcome of the handed-out presentation and press conference literature has not been fully informative per the basis of the strategy itself and the financing of such a seemingly transformative endeavour].

Ferreira continues -

“4.0 sees industrial disruption, so involves traditional research centres, start-ups and scale-ups, with BR50m for Start-Ups to be connected to Industry (eg Catapillar, Embraer , 3M etc), with also FINEP adding more money for start-ups.

De Castro -

“We must consider what is effectively the fostering of new-tech. The maturity dates for loans is no longer 5 or 10 years but 20 years, so able to decrease the 'spread' (ie overall annual interest payable) of the loan. So smaller instalments to assist. More important than that, is that our greatest concern is with the anonymous companies; whereby 11m companies and 4-5m micro-companies.

“And that's why we are restructuring our bank to eBNDS, a bank within a bank, a FinTech Hub that collects informations between customers and providers to facilitate transactional exchanges. As long as these micro-entrepreneurs have access to credit, regardless of 4.0. It has BR200m and is an efficient programme.

“We foster regional start-ups and regional development, that place start-ups in incubators with amazing profitability that has future scalability. EBNDS is an accessible platform for such small entrepreneurs. We are over 60% in participation with companies.

“Finally to highlight Planning. Its the Action Plan for IoT. This is reliant on a well organised macro-economy that reforms tax and red-tape etc.

“One interesting arena being that of Agribusiness, which has embraced digitalisation”.

[The shift of the role as a more private-enterprise led bank and its shift in B2B persona of was explained some months ago by investment-auto-motives, as it alters it innate remit and financial products offering to B2B and B2C.

The importance of eBNDS cannot be over stated since it wants to attract the business of many self-starting small-time entrepreneurs in B2B and B2C fields as e-retailing at trade and consumer levels become an increasing trend.

Hence in reality eBNDS is perhaps more aimed at the potential new millions of online retailers who wish to sell via new internet platforms such as the upcoming Mercadolibre and increasingly visible local presence of Amazon Inc. eBNDS seeks to then replicate and substitute the likes of PayPal, whilst no doubt using its high volume small unit margins to fund higher risk-high reward tech start-ups in the Silicone Valley style.

Summary ;

To begin with Brazilian business culture, as seen with the Panels' personal interactions, there is much inter-personal 'thanking', that stems from the niceities of the yesteryear Portugese nobility and has been retained as a business custom ever since. This is obviously far better than being business-brash (and everything is of course relative) but in such short sessions as this discussion forum, or in time-pressured business meetings, the custom (beyond basic “thankyou”) can distract and slow the pace and direction of discussion. The platitudes may lead to to less than sharp attitudes.

The discussion itself was overtly general; and took far too long to raise the prime issues surrounding the funding of 'Industry 4.0' via eBNDS and FINEP, with too little detail. Similarly discussion about the lessons that should have been learned from the past, such as the SEMI forums, so the pitfalls and enablers.

This was a great pity.

Compare what was said to even the [paranthesised] quick observations of investment-auto-motives herein, and the requirement for the following was very necessary:

- broader historical perspective

- far better clarity and details

- expansion of prime and critical issues

- exemplification

- vision

Instead of a structured debate that could have encompassed much in a short timespan, it became little more than what appeared a rhetorical government rebranding exercise of global Management Consultant's zeitgeist-led recommendations for development of any modern economy, let alone 'mid-tier' as Brazil is, and let alone specific to its domestic needs and global position.

A re-look at the panelists professional positions illustrates their standing at the 'top of the tree':

Luis Augusto de Ferreira – President of Brazilian Industrial Development Agency

Marcos Jorge de Lima – Minister of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services for Brazil

Poalo Rebello de Castro – President of the Brazilian Development Bank

Ronaldo Camargo – Vice-Pesident Finances d'Estudez d'Hibroto (FINEP - Social Dev Bank)

Thus we had the 'head honchos' of domestic development, foreign development and domestic funding; the players to move the country forward. Yet, to requote the journalists during the questions period “what does Industry 4.0 mean practically?”.

Various broad issues touched upon, but little actually said about how the basic funding process would will be satisfactorily directed into the right channels, how it would be 'business-managed' from the banking persepctive and how monitored for progress.

Instead simply, BR80bn under one general scheme of 'safety and security' (without true details), BR2bn under a 'robotics' (without details) scheme and BR50m for start-ups (without details), etc.

And the idea that 200m jobs would spring-up as the result of Brazil's digitisation (without details).

No discussion about broad national 'digi-templates' from foreign learning from USA, Korea, Europe, China etc. And vitally there was no proper discussion about the lessons learned from the past per Brazil's poorly performing semi-conductor sector, whose failings since the early 1990s means Brazil's past and current massive reliance on imported electronics from Asia.

Those lessons of failed technology transfer now directly relate to the similar ambitions regards the creation of an IT Sensor design and manufacturing national base; a fundamental aspect of the value-creation chain within the new world of the hyper-connected in Internet of Things via 'The Cloud'. (This ranging from the macro of intelligent infrastructure, autonomoue vehicles etc, to the micro-aspect of intelligent domestic systems).

The irony being the periodic use of the term a 'de-materialised economy', would suggest Brazil might in the future exist upon an 'hour-glass' economy. One based upon the continued strength of commodities at the Primary (bottom level) for export, static or declined Secondary industries (lower-mid), static or declined Tertiary industries (upper-mid) and a massively ballooned Knowledge-economy at the top.

Any such notion is delusional, since Brazil has built itself from bottom-up, and needs to first expand the sophistication, breadth and reach of its Secondary processing sectors for improved energy efficiency and quality materials output, and to likewise expand its tertiary sectors to better compete in the Services realm from 'gallery-malls' in retail to Specialist B2B Consulting across various sectors.

It is the mid-level areas that are more immediately relevant and so promising; but they need nurturing. 

The ambition for creation of an IT Sensors' homeland by leveraging its 'Campinas Valley' (near Sao Paulo) capabilities is of course a sound idea in principle, and is the antithesis of the 'de-materialised'. But given Brazil's reliance on so many foreign companies in that area, it must also recognise the upsides and downsides of deployed foreign-owned IPR, even when adapted. 

(NB The auto sector provides useful history lessons in this regards, ie FNM, Engesa, Dardo etc).

A Sensors based sub-economy then, is obviously inevitably positioned between the strong research and development capabilities of Western firms and the enormous scale capabilities of Chinese and SE Asian firms (typically sub-contractors such as Foxconn). Brazil cannot afford to be stuck in such a position again after recognition of this reality with the previous semi-conductor debacle. Yet without insightful direction, looks to repeat that story once again.

Hence the need for a well managed and exploited full-value-chain Brazilian economy. One that does not by default scupper the very important contributions of the Secondary and Tertiary levels. It is precisely here that the skills-base and creative potential of the masses needs to be deployed through far better – industry connected - education and training for all, not just the summer secondments for the sons and daughters of the country's elite.

Herein Ferreira's words underplayed the necessary reality; to repeat...

“We've been talking about 4.0 for a long time, and these people on the panel are responsible for the execution. The good times are back, with new recovery. This allows us to invest with more precision directed at Tech and IoT sectors. There is talk of 'Re-Industrialisation' but in essence it is just restructuring of Brazilian industries, adjusting to new global trends, value chains, energy efficiency. Prof Scwabb highlighting the importance of the latter”.

It demotes the very important aspect of 'Re-Industrialisation' and suggests it as less economically important as the brighter newer digital-based world; but it is not. The two are wholly complementary and given Brazil's past failures to adapt to “new global trends, value-chains etc”, the issue is far more serious than being seemingly contemplated.

To this end the new Bolsonaro government should properly deconstruct the Brazilian economy to better appreciate the potential of conventional sectors and the important impact they can have in raising and maintaining the living standards of the less educated and less fortunate; aswell as the newly destabilised middle-classes. 

Apprentices and ex civil servants alike need new forms of easily comprehended and interesting employment in the real economy, not the glamorous facade of an often hollow 'gig-economy'.

To provide some positiveness regards the digi-realm, the Brazilian government is trying to use IT to streamline administration and so reduce absorbed costs for the improved planning of 'Industry 4.0'.

However, as stated its web-based system that effectively validates new funding streams may be an overly simplistic and heavy-handed approach to Business and Trade Planning. It appears hardly lassaiz-faire and so an effective 'Big Brother' arbiter of the countries SME winners and losers.

It is a web-based submission, with less than transparent analysis criteria, that affects the future shape of swathes of future commerce, and so, the destinies of many companies. Something of which traditional MD's will be very nervous.

Moreover, there may be much latitude for 'slippery players' to establish the apparent 'companies of tomorrow '(that tick all the digi-based and IoT-based boxes) but whose business aim is really simply extracting as much government funding as possible. Especially in the 'Start-up' sphere, where all too often people justify their reasons for failure as their learning curve at government's or other investors' expense.

(NB To quote the present much loved mantra of Silicon Valley "yes there are 99 ways to fail", but whilst learning what does not work - in an oft blur between Applied and Pure research - ' the real-world cost of capital is enormous to the 'boot-strappers' and 'seed-funders'. All too often the start-up's image is that of a geeky 'garage laboratory' to make it seem homely and wholesome, whilst in reality founders enjoy an upscale lifestyle and obviously charge their costly networking and client entertainment activities, that promotes their brand and business model, to the company budget and so their backers' funding).

And so the question remains as to exactly how much has realistically been achieved by the Brazilian Ministries, beyond the usual big schema of adapted conceptional powerpoint presentations, originated by the likes of PWC, KPMG etc.

Is the current policy setting just 'Brazilian branded' work of the management consultancies, or has each sub-element been explored relative to true national and regional Developmental Planning needs.

So far it appears the former.

Brazil has its own brand of 'Order and Progress'; so must take the best of 'utopian' Industry 4.0 management speak and integrate it into the vital practicalities of real Brazilian industry and commerce.

And done so in a meaningfully costed way, that can  now make much of the depreciated Brazilian Real.

That large currency shift should now be used to shift the economic base and capabilities of the country, and strengthen and broaden the export-led products and services economy.

One that learns from past mistakes and triumphs, and is able to create a jigsaw-like commercial eco-system that can be replicated elsewhere in lower-standing EM countries for intelligent development, and may even be adopted by AM countries as part of their own effort for transformation.