Macro Level Trends – Modern Capitalism – An Evolutionary 'Mobius' System.

With the present tenor of 'Inclusive Capitalism', the previous weblog questioned as to how the thought leaders of capitalism would be able to re-orientate the western (and global) capitalist structure to appease the mass throng of an increasingly agitated public.

From the demonstrations seen in Rio de Janeiro using the Football World Cup as a publicity platform, to what may be a new 'passive-aggressive' attitudinal stance by many affected as 'non-economic' beings elsewhere (especially the young), the need for a re-balancing of economic fortunes has been well understood by leading economic actors.

That change appears to happening, albeit slowly, a new 'flip-side' to capitalism which promises much.

Thus the system, though ostensibly of fixed philosophical shape with the economic circularity of money at its heart, might be now considered a Mobius System, whereby - as per Euclidean theory – the same directional looped route may be travelled, yet with the in-built ability to swap onto an obverse path.

End of One Era -

In the West and Triad region, with the previous era template between 1948 and 2008 effectively exhausted, perhaps the most important action - indeed arguably the only option open - was the creation of QE, able to notionally “pump” but in actuality 'trickle' new inflationary liquidity into the US, UK, Japan and an awaiting Europe, to counter-act the necessary post-crisis deflation required to compete upon a now much revised global stage.

Whilst such liquidity was indeed pumped into Wall St, The City and Marunouchi / Otemachi - with a planned long-cycle reaction of 'demand pull' underpinning stock, bond and derivatives purchasing (reaching across safe and now even 'junk' instruments), the reality as seen is that the process of feeding broad portions of that liquidity into the real economy is an onerous and time consuming effort.

The financial crash effectively re-configured the financial and operational fundamentals of western business: whether from the balance sheet perspective with high unserviceable debt, a cash-flow basis requiring dramatic overhead reduction, likewise necessary given retracted banking facilities, the reality of postponed client payments (this creating a 'prompt payment discount' effort) and so a “down the line” effect throughout all supply chains.

In essence the after-effects of 2008 could be likened to that of a commercial fitness test for Western and Triad businesses.

That slow process – six years thus far – is very painful for all people directly effected, and people wish to become economically active once again; yet rationality and emotionality must be distinctly separated if new green shoots are to be sustainable.

Western banks have been publicly lambasted by politicians, business commentators and the public for their apparent lackadaisical efforts to channel nationally budgeted 'Lending For Business' monies into the real world.

But to use an agricultural euphemism, if such precious new finance were simply “broadcast into the air” without meaningful commercial assessment of the specific entities involved, it would be a real economic travesty which would raise the spectre of a new crisis in latter years.

Instead the funds must be necessarily “seed drilled' into fertile soil”, with what is effectively new seed money (for all enterprise sizes) targeted at specific businesses which themselves are best operationally attuned to their changed environment or are able to grasp new market opportunities in today's much altered commercial landscape.

Hence, here and now the process of due diligence is more critical and so more detailed than ever before, and given the scale of commercial change at a level never see before. Thus the lengthy time period endured stems from an unfortunate but necessary rehabilitation phase

The same is true for the logical convincing of private equity, sovereign wealth funds, pension and insurance institutional funds, dedicated regional / sector or them fund managers and now even the average person given regulatory moves to improve self-directed financial management.

Today whether fixed-income lender or equity stake-holder, there is a necessary fundamental re-assessment of those contemporary commercial engines which are set to create new value.

In effect, the 2008 to date period could be seen as a parallel to the beginnings of modern capitalism, but with a new egalitarian promise.

Back to the Beginning -

Throughout human history, for good or ill, it seems that the profit motive of gain has been the prime central underlying philosophy. For the most part, the process of civilization thankfully inducing humanity to transform its inter-relationships from the simplistic territorial 'spoils of war' of barbarians, to the somewhat awkward and generally inefficient practice of gifting and bartering to the establishment of ever more meaningful and trusted transactional currencies from about the 6^th century BC onward, until today.

The true landmark however came with the instigation of the joint stock-holding company format.

Financial and general historians will no doubt continually debate the finite origins of the concept. Whether it effectively stems from the “Société des Moulins de Bazacle”granary windmills in mid-13^th century France, the creation of the “The Company of Merchant Adventurers to New Lands” in England in 1553, Russia's “Muscovy Company” of 1555, England's “East India Company” chartered on the very eve of 1601, or the more commonly associated effort of “The Dutch East India Company” in 1602 as a central pillar of the simultaneously established Amsterdam Stock Exchange in The Netherlands.

[NB the latter seen by most as the foetus of today's global capital markets mechanism, which though viewed by some as in contrast to the edicts of Middle-Eastern 'Sharia' and Asian 'Participatory' Finance, is in actuality very similar, given the sense of mutual ownership and shared effort and responsibility; so negating the abhorrence of “usury money-lending”].

As colonial interests geographically widened so did the very idiom of created, sold and bought shares of a specific company as opportunities apparently arose. In 1606 “The Plymouth Company” was formed, succeeded by “The Virginia Company of London” both of which which sought to settle and reap from new North American ventures, whilst its own associated long excursions south to Caribbean Bermuda became formalised into “The Somers Isles Company”.

Widening the Net... -

Across the core commercial districts of Europe, the Americas and Singapore and Hong Kong, as commercialism appeared to grow exponentially thanks to agricultural imports, innovative industrial applications and because of both slave and cheap labour, so did of course the availability and choice of stock-holding possibilities.

This so for the fortunate (tho' periodically unfortunate) aristocratic elite, a finite upper class and a broader 'upper-middle', as inherited feudal and agricultural wealth alongside newer mercantile wealth was directed to promising commercial ventures.

… With a Deeper Trawl -

The very nature of an ever expanding regional stock market dependent upon proof of concept via attractive company dividend payments or capital growth (or indeed both) to an ever broader uptake audience, the expanding range of commercial “projections” targeted at an ever expanding audience who themselves saw the advantages of partial company ownership.

The model was set and has been maintained even through the severe upsets of early “Tulipmania” and the “South Sea Bubble”. Though in fact many lesser known smaller contractions and collapses having greater consequential ripple-effects as the mass middle-classes became ever more entwined. When the life-time savings of 'old maiden aunts' and even whole families were wiped-out the hollowness of such investors' intrinsic remote trust in others, whether family associates or 'professional' advisors, became all too apparent as their middlemens' own remoteness from the true forces within market dynamics was itself experienced.

Nevertheless, even with such horror stories (which exist to this day), as new wealth was generated and accumulated - assisted by both international trade and economy-boosting / national debt-management 'money-printing' – so new opportunities appeared in an ever more complex industrial and consumer society. It was that very complexity, the increasingly separated and additionally created portions of the overall systemic value-chain, serving ever greater volumes of goods and services, which drove value creation.

To the Peak of the Cycle... -

Returning to stock-market realities, as seen investor interests and so share-prices eventually driven beyond sound fundamentals and 'fair value' by the interests of the many, private and professional. Ranging from the entrepreneurial moguls who over-hype their activities in search of investor support (and often personal exits) to desires of the partly informed average person seeking not to become left behind during the pronounced phase of economic expansion, to eventually the cliché of “dead-set” stock tips from the 'in the know' taxi-driver.

...And Renewed Beginnings -

Thus through both rational value-seeking and (ir)rational growth-storytelling aswell as long cycles of fair value from economic growth, plus the inevitable value gains to be had from “irrational exuberance”, the joint-stock company (via exchange) proffers much to the informed and ironically even uninformed (to a point). And with modern capitalism's ever broadened activity realms and deepened global base, thanks to real and virtual technology and humanities' demands for comfort and convenience has itself grown ever more convincing; even if an imperfect economic model.

Whereas the EM regions of old had to be settled, often migrant populated and wearily physically exploited, in the 20^th and 21^st centuries the foundations of new EM regions are fundamentally established, with their own homeland bourses and increasingly active participation by western multinationals; today seen as the spiritual (and sometimes commercially derived) successors of the initial crop of truly publicly orientated stock-holder firms.

Importantly, whilst stock-markets convey a most vivid image of capitalism and associated wealth via the media's portrayal (from everyday news reports to 'The Wolf of Wall Street' et al), the very same environment obviously serves; even with periodic contractionary dis-service. Most he systemically critical plethora of institutional pension and insurance firms, so as to provide for the future of people's financial needs individually and en mass by way of present liabilities.

But perhaps the more historically meaningful cornerstone – indeed foundation - of capitalism is the endemic notion of private property; that dream arguably more realisable for younger EM populations than for many today in the West.

The Automotive Sector -

As seen, the joint-stock format was well entrenched by the beginning of the automotive age in the late 19^th century and early 20^th century. Thus many of the early associated new enterprises were spawned from either the direct selling of inaugural private shares in all new start-ups, or by the offering part of a new venture free-float (private and public) from well established industrial firms.

[NB whether they be coach-builders, railway vehicle makers, bicycle and/or motorcycle manufacturing companies or indeed general industrial firms with internal capabilities to enter the new automotive sphere in cars and trucks]

In most instances, as with likes of Ford, the Dodge Brothers, Nash (to a degree), Buick, Durant and Chrysler in the USA private investors (and often investment banks themselves) sought to back specific entrepreneur's who had proffered realisable product and business plans; especially those who had learned along the way in those early days.

Though, as ever, where there was a flood of new money seeking-out promised returns, there was also chicanery, especially toward the enthusiastic but less knowledgeable.

Whether from founders themselves with little more than 'snake oil' propositions or from contriving and conspiratorial board members seeking to either oust the founder or undertake a 'cut and run' through misappropriation of investor's monies. Or indeed consecutive disingenuous behaviour by by those who saw the ongoing possibility of 'sucking dry' monies via successive start-ups and intentional collapses: the accrual of funding...implausibly incurred expenses...operational run-down and ultimately 'fire-sale' liquidation...with for the most ardent, the possibility of re-purchasing the bust firm's assets at heavy discount to re-run the entire money-grabbing and money-shifting ploy all over again with a new founder, a new set of enthusiastic investors, a new set (or indeed previous set) of employees.

The Era of Auto-Investment Stability -

By the 1930s there had been a great shake-out of the once nascent and volatile automotive sector, both in North America and Europe. The era of mass mobility had begun and the stratification of the general market had become increasingly marked, between a basic functional device (Model T) and a luxury status symbol (Hispano-Suiza) with a myriad of product levels between.

Post WW2 businesses improved yet more with the likes of “Whiz Kid” executives applying considered knowledge, so serving their customers demands whilst operating more efficiently, and generating new profit margin improving offerings via specifically applied technical and specification progress to gain model-line differentiation upon a 'next model year' basis, whilst simultaneously driving volumes and scale efficiencies through consumer credit and optimised common-part engineering dictums.

This golden age spanning post-depression 1934 to 1973 unsurprisingly served automotive stock-holders very well indeed, with the purchase of additional stock at depressed prices in 1940/41 all the way through to the Middle-East induced Oil Crisis, which itself actually spurred well aligned European and Japanese auto-stocks.

Social and Competitive Disruptions -

For various western auto-producers, and their auto-stock holders, the 1970s was value destructive. A a combination of the macro-effects of the oil shock upon regional economies, ever growing inflation vis a vis productivity declines generated 'stagflation', with the reduction of real earnings for many employees (especially in old industrial sectors) creating unrest and so the rise of union disruption.

As seen by Chrysler's collapse and Chapter 11 re-emergence, and by British Leyland's demise, dissection and divestment, the late 1970s and early 1980s were troublesome times for the old guard auto-players, their previous thunder stolen by the market relevance of ever improved Japanese vehicles still buoyed by a strengthened but still relatively weak Yen.

As Toyota retaught GM how to build some of its own re-skinned and re-badged models and generally improved cars at the Californian NUMMI plant, and Honda did likewise for its 'alliance-partner' Rover at Swindon in S.W. England, those auto-investors who had recognised Japan's constantly improving potential did well thanks to the ongoing climb in both domestic and western market sales, the slow strengthening of the Yen and the strong annual land asset-base re-valuations in Japan.

Into Another Boom -

The mid 1980s once again saw new economic traction in the west as the overt 1970s Keynesian governmental spending (criticised as “voodoo economics”) was reigned-in under the guise of 'Reaganomics' in the USA and 'Thatcherism' in the UK. Whatever the nomenclature, the pro-markets stance enabled by financial deregulation such as the 'Big Bang' in London, the ongoing de-nationalisation of industry and conversion of building societies into fully-fledged banks prompted a new investment and economic boom, most profoundly experienced in the price surge of all classes of property.

The automotive icon of the age was the BMW 3-series (E30), the vehicle which essentially made BMW the company it is today. It was viewed as the embodiment of “European chic” by American East Coast Manhattenites and Bostonians, the intentional intellectual opposite in size, weight and quality to Detroit's offerings. That highly influential 'Ivy League' favouritism spread demand westwards and eastwards across the Atlantic into the UK and Europe, and the little BMW – not Porsche (as forever quoted) – actually defined that period and long after by the size of its adoption. Whilst Europe's own parallel epicentre trend came with the second generation VW Golf GTI (1G/A2).

The 1990-91 Gulf War stifled overall growth, with what is in retrospect an over-reaction upon the broad economy, but did manage to calm both stock and property speculation. However by 1994 western economies had regained strength and with it a further relaxation of credit availability.

The undoubted reflective icon of this period was aimed at the American masses, with broad demand for the pick-up truck based SUV, seen with the Ford Explorer (and later bigger Expedition sibling) and Chevrolet Tahoe and (9^th generation Suburban).

In the land where historically for the 'Average Joe' “Bigger is Better” since it is seen as a mark of social success, along with the viewed safety perceptions of SUVs, the 1990s and early/mid 2000s were an undoubted boom period for Detroit, even through 9/11...right up to 2008.

Consequences of Financial Avarice -

However, as has been felt so harshly, the American (and latter European) public and indeed business had been riding an ever inflating self-serving credit bubble, one which itself allowed for overt financial machinations and scandals such as ENRON. But it was not just bankers who were “dancing whilst the music was playing”.

Whilst many were culpable of creating and disseminating ever more "toxic" CDOs based upon associated phantom mortgages, it should be noted that the seemingly never-ending party also amongst the 'Average Joe' grew the popularity of property equity withdrawals, so as to buy ever more profligate fashion and leisure orientated consumer goods, including of course the car.

Onward Again, From Here to Eternity -

The obvious irony being that presently, whilst EM countries themselves go through the economic spasms of internal reform so as to regain lost competitive regionally and globally, even after the melt-down of 2008 and slow re-build to date, the USA retains its power if not strangle-hold) on capitalism.

If Wall Street never sleeps, then capitalism never stops.

Presently investment-auto-motives views the new renaissance of capitalism as standing upon three apparent pillars:

1. Re-Construction of the 'Old' Physical Economy 

2. Continued Construction of the Cyber Economy 

3. Merging of 1 and 2 within 'Augmented Reality'

The former consists of those companies which though battle-scarred have survived the after-effects of 2008. Of what ever size, multi-national to national SME to one-man-band, these are enterprises which – typically through conservative attitudes, business methods and much pain - have been able to endure in core socio-economic B2B and B2C sectors. In various cases able to seize the moment with efforts to grow through the acquisition of weaker competitors.

The latter is of course related to the advent of the net-connected, cyber-age whereby the dual aspects of both increasing productive connectivity through the growing 'internet of things' and personal and group 'augmented reality' offers wholly new realms of enterprise and investment opportunity; now being explored and tested by many in the California's 'Silicon Valley', London's 'Silicon Roundabout' and various other IT hubs around the world. It is recognised that much is simply on-line behavioural alignment via ever more screen-based enablers; such as the branded smartphone app which replaces the local restaurant's junk-mail menu and the once required telephone call to order delivered take-away food.

But it is the promise of the ability to increasingly and seamlessly merge these two physical and cyber-worlds through the 'internet of things' which then provides for yet further advancement of what may be termed neo-capitalism.

The New “Merged World” -

Efforts such as the recently availed autonomous 'Google Car' set the direction and tone behind the efforts to establish neo-capitalism.

Such innovation seeks to become far more than technology disruptors. Hence the perceived psuedo-prophetic words from the likes of Bill Gates, (the late) Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Larry Page et al; individuals with access to so much money, the process of capitalism puts the power of socio-economic change directly into their hands. 

This now well entrenched technocracy seeks to proffer major social and behavioral change. In the case of the Google Car adding to personal productivity levels and transport safety. 

The consequential argument is that much of today's physical, man-made, infrastructural environment will demand a massive scale of re-modernisation; especially so in western lands which largely originate from the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries. The fundamentals of our immediate city-scape environment will need cosmetically subtly but nonetheless powerful alteration so as to itself “enable the e-enablers”. The world around us substantially re-imagined and re-configured.

The Take Away -

The gold rush times of the 19^th century saw hoards of people chase the promise of the next big gold strike, but the real immediate and long-lasting was gained from those individuals and joint-stock companies which were able to sell the specifically required items to the hoards of gold-panners and gold-miner, aswell as offering the aligned commercial and respite services sought.

There will undoubtedly be many more rich strikes within the still burgeoning e-economy, amongst the plethora of 'modern-day miners' of BitCoin extraction and elsewhere.

Yet equally so, it looks to be those real-world re-alignment opportunities that provide greater prospects.

Paradoxically the original ancestors of today's joint stock shareholders had to fund very risky but potentially lucrative ventures to far-flung destinations. But today, the veritable hold of mankind over his ever more self-created world and domain means that value prospecting and achievement should be theoretically far more attainable, if one can avoid the 'fool's gold'.

To End -

The promise of a Mobius-like 'Inclusive' Capitalism which maintains its directed progress along an obverse path is compelling; exactly how it pans out remains to be seen in future years.

But what is equally compelling is the manner by which capitalism itself is directed, and from a simple “macro-tech” overview of points 1,2 and 3, twenty-first century western (and global) "neo-capitalism” appears a truly powerful phoenix.  

Macro Level Trends – Capitalism Revisited – Platters of Platitudes or True Re-Imagination

Tuesday 27^th May saw various power-brokers and thought leaders from across a wide spectrum meet at The Lord Mayor's Mansion House and The Guildhall (here in London) to discuss the role of global capitalism into tomorrow.

The event named “Inclusive Capitalism” is the support event to 'ICI' (the Inclusive Capitalism Institute) a non-profit organisation which seeks practical ways to “renew capitalism as an engine of economic opportunity and shared prosperity”.

A broad international array of speakers and attendees participated, spanning: British royalty, an ex US president, seniors from the IMF, BoE, SWFs, consulting groups, academia, varies types of large finance houses (retail banking, institutionals and investment banking), holding companies, sector specific corporations, trade union umbrella bodies, national and regional governments and financial press; all hosted by the current Lord Mayor.

The Re-Emerged Right vs Left Debate -

The heart of the global establishment invariably stands centre-right within the political spectrum. Necessarily so as to effectively purport the advantages of capitalism, which though noted by Winston Churchill as structurally imperfect, has largely submerged communism (and the threat of world wars), and which even after the 2008 financial crisis is still seen as the singular pathway remaining for humanity's progress.

It has largely proven itself as a system for improving the lives of the impoverished, even if today for the mass of the western middle-classes the model itself has either stalled. That the establishment does indeed seek to re-energise profit-making is the logical panacea, since prosperity is the 'naturally correlated' (ie free-market) outcome of ever more economically integrated human activity. Capitalism offers the many to participate in various forms, most notably as employees, or as entrepreneurs and both directly and indirectly within the stock market, itself acting as a key instrument in the allocation of funds and thereby dedicated human effort. Yet this same establishment also recognises the need to provide financial stability and improved socio-economic input from presently disenfranchised western economic beings.

Uninvited naysayers – who range across the remnants of the left-leaning 'occupy movement' (with its overtly propagandist slogan “we are the 99%”) to fully entrenched life-long socialists to the poor working class through to the growing non-WASP ethnic-minority groups - will undoubtedly publicly or privately highlight their viewpoint. That no matter how seemingly socially acceptable representatives of 'power families' appear – primarily the Windsor royals (nee Sax-Co-burg, nee Witten) and Rothschild (historically closely allied to European royals) – the same old power structure remains.

Many of these groups have either intellectually arrived, or led, to the conclusion that capitalism is little more than a conspiratorial 'smoke and mirrors' socio-economic system, consisting of a closely orchestrated banking-political-military-industrial-media mechanism to push the Judo-Christian 'western agenda' so as to gain worldwide power. All to the detriment of the masses. This conference then little more than a staged play, or at best soon to be forgotten 'lip-service', designed to placate the now disenfranchised broad masses (from old senior managers to young graduates). All so that the 'squeeze 'em dry' process can re-start in a more amenable guise to entrance the marginalised worker. But that any future gain of the average individual will once again be comparatively minuscule given the realities of 'the western condition' compared to the worldwide reach of the profiteers.

Reality of the Shattered Middle Ground -

As with most oppositional stances, any rational concept of an optimal, morally legitimate, position lays somewhere in the middle ground. Somewhere between the hyper-competitive right to the hyper-idealistic left, in which a natural equilibrium of effort and reward is achievable on personal and social levels.

A sound and functioning middle-ground, devoid of the ill-will and surreptitious guerilla machinations that actually goes on in supposed civil society as people strive to better their lot.

Yet what is true – far from such Mansion House meetings of very the hard-working but highly rewarded, highly cosseted and often very 'removed' - is the fact that the average (wo)man who was once stereotyped as riding upon the “Clapham Omnibus” now seethes about the fact that not only can he/she not afford to live in suburban districts (such as the 're-gentrified' Clapham), but that increasingly he/she cannot afford to live in those areas to which in the past have been viewed as socially improving, aesthetically pleasing and so educationally character-building.

Furthermore, many others are physically trapped, and so very psychologically constrained, by the fact that they cannot even afford to take public transport, so become geographically contained within what appears to them to be an evil intention of 'top-down' social engineering.

This the British, European and American reality today, in which the long-term personal experiences for millions demonstrate what is viewed as an innately immoral unfairness to modern society. The worst aspects of which lays well under the socio-political radar, and only surface through anti-votes such as that seen in Britain with UKIP.

That financial frustration has a tremendous impact upon all facets of a person's life, yet paradoxically the resulting frustration and anger is more often than not masked beneath the increasingly thin veneer of 'social-normality', so creating internal turmoil. This effects people of whichever ethnic background, but at least typically closely knit minorities tend to have social cohesion and mutual support.

Whereas ironically, social disenfranchisement (and long term alienation) has perhaps become especially pertinent for portions of the indigenous middle-class; those who were brought-up on the specific edicts of education, hard-work and deferred pleasure for a better tomorrow.

The trouble is that this deferral now appears ever-lasting, the promised pleasure foregone. Especially true for what may be termed the middle-class intelligentsia, far beyond the walls of academia, themselves long betrayed as important but under-appreciated component parts of capitalism, but upon whose specific and generalist knowledge progress relies.

A strong middle, which acts as a central hub of stability for society, can only exist where there is general social cohesion, even if not respect or warmth, across the three seemingly everlasting class levels. But the middle itself is now viewed as a shattered ideology from a notional golden yesteryear which in retrospect itself for appears somewhat of an illusion.

Ultimately, yet another part of the western post-modern 'grande-narrative' lost and awaiting, if possible, foundational re-building.

Fundamental Issues -

The prime concerns for much of the west are:

- Income Levels: wide inequalities and inconsistencies

- Industry: divestment and collapse of various mid-value industries

- Industry: loss of associated knowledge (R&D to hands-on)

- Regional: disparities as a consequence of regional 'vacuum'

- FDI: partly replaced by foreign interests over past 30 years

- Policy: partly replaced by debt-funded 'phantom' employment

(eg public-sector, charities and NGO employment)

- New Vacuum: resulting from necessary 'phantom' de-staffing.

- Population: economically, rationally and emotionally disenfranchised by “the system”

- Education: need to question various structures, methods and practices

- Education: need to question of many participant's personal dedication

- Policy: transitional process from education toward employment / entrepreneurism

- Commerce: proportionate imbalance even within services sector.

- Commerce: proportionate imbalance of high value research

- Commerce: proportionate imbalance of high value manufacturing

- Social: return of personal privacy (a now eroded endemic human right)

- Economic: true “Capitalist Renaissance” vs Managed “Proto-Socialist” Decline

- Leadership: corporations as de facto emergent global powers

- Leadership: corporate autocracy vs corporate social responsibility.

These just a few elements of the transitional process in 'western future-forming'.

Reduced 'High-Value' Western Contribution -

Whilst the west obviously maintains various advantageous 'high-value' capabilities which lead the world, it is perceived that this portion of economic contribution may well have remained flat or even declined over the last three decades in proportion to the actual broad economic whole of everyday activities undertaken by western countries.

Two factors appear to have made this the case, when supposedly better education and training for an expanded mass of participants should have been raising the 'high-value capabilities' of western states.

Firstly, the overt economic boom period existing largely between 1985 and 2008. This credit-fuelled, property-price driven 'party' induced overt wage-price inflation as a partial consequence of financial deregulation. Though seemingly rational upon an introspective pan western regional basis it arguably over-inflated the true participatory value of many mainstay activities; ranging from brick-layer to PA to dentist. Whilst the housing boom (even including periodic 1992, 1999, 2001 contractions) invariably through the demand-pull of housing credit effectively lifted the income of the masses, it also served to starve funds from more truly rational and value-adding science and innovation and efforts; with perhaps only the special relationship between Silicon Valley and Wall Street gaining true support and momentum. Other countries efforts too little too late in comparison.

Also, very probably the case that potentially 'high-value' activities that had been associated with those mid-value industrial sectors either “hollowed-out” or divested to EM buyers, were ostensibly lost, aside from very specific, narrow academic explorations.

“Keeping it in the EM Family” -

The last twenty-five years have witnessed many EM nations individually and collectively undertake a veritable economic leap-frog into a truly new era. Not just toward economic, technological, social and political modernity (though many millions are still yet to gain) but with it the sense of truly redressing the age-old notion of international inequality vis a vis the west. The G20, EM trade pacts and academic and industrial alliances illustrate the efforts for 'global reform'.

However, the recognised reality for the west is that its once broad and deep semi-controlling connections to the slowed but still growing EM nations, whilst in tact appear increasingly weak, as EM leaders co-create with each-other utilising modern principles and technologies previously gained from western corporations; the re-nationalisation of Venezuelan oil a prime example.

Because of the very size of EM populations and the rise in standards still to be provided for many, it may be the case that having imported much knowledge and technology over the last decade, that the economic value to be created and extracted, will be done so internally within EM nations; especially so now that many countries must shift from investment-led growth (naturally aligned to foreign joint ventures to capture modern plant and offer quality goods) toward internal consumer-led growth (the majority of the spoils expectedly retained domestically).

So whilst the west promotes its role of high-value services and manufacturing, and its role regards global environmental guardianship, the disturbing fact could be that western participation within the global whole actually diminishes.

This was seen previously as ex-colonial nations such as India in the mid 1960s bought-in western know-how and previous generation technology (eg Austin Oxfords and Fiat 1100 cars and taxis. Those same vehicles were manufactured with only small changes and utilised in society on the for many decades as the Indian firms producing the cars gained strong profits on a captive markets.

Whilst this era of specific market protectionism and internal exploitation of such domestic markets is no longer the case - with most EM nations seeking to lower tariff barriers to enable cross border trade and so nurture their own strong competitive capabilities - such 'mutual inwardism' does obviously serve the vested co-interests of specific regions. Thus such complementary intra-trading and manufacturing scenarios formed officially or unofficially, and already a stark reality across SE Asia and South America, even with efforts such as the US's Pacific Pact, could well lead to the ongoing erosion of western influence, trade enablement and so western wealth creation.

Thus then another well recognised, but unstated concern, amongst the corporate leaders and bankers attending the Inclusive Capitalism conference.

If indeed (heaven forbid) today's well inter-connected global world of trade does indeed not further integrate, but disintegrates across 'new-power' vs 'old-power' regional lines (not ideological lines); then the west will be forced to rely ever more upon its presently disenfranchised peoples.

Starting Over via “ICI”-

Importantly, the western establishment well recognises the need to address ongoing mass populace dissatisfaction. Obviously no coincidence that this seminar has been run during what appear the first stages of economic renewal, the financial markets massively buoyed by QE but awaiting the intrinsic true economic traction or the real economy.

Using the the acronym “ICI” is seemingly a subtle attempt to regenerate examples of past success and capture broader cultural diversity.

It has knowing cognitive association to the yesteryear UK chemicals (and multi-play) company which both innovated, created value and spread worldwide wealth from its homeland roots, during its era as a progressive conglomerate player it was admired as a force for good, both operationally with the likes of strong research base and best practice methodologies, and for spreading wealth across diverse local industrial and agricultural communities as far apart as NW England and rural India. And for the older generation refers to the crop of yesteryear 'good eggs' such as its ex-head Sir John Harvey-Jones.

“ICI” also is the acronym for a number of culturally influential associated bodies, such as the 'Islamic Counter-Terrorism Institute', 'International Compaq with Iraq', ' Istanbul Cooperation Initiative', 'Institute of Cultural Inquiry', 'Institute for Competitive Intelligence', 'Institute of Cooperation of South America' and the 'Investment Company Institute' of America).

[NB Conspiracy theorists will also cite the 'International Commission on Illumination', as pertaining to association with (the supposedly all powerful) “illuminati”].

The “Inclusive Capitalism” Agenda -

As seen “ICI” seeks to both find alternative methods by which to remould capitalism, principally to be seen as more 'new age' responsible and in doing so eliciting greater 'fresh thinking'.

In essence the grand mission is for major investors of whichever ilk (pension funds to hedge funds to private equity) to ensure that all attendees, but perhaps especially so the executive and management teams of individual corporations and firms, recognise the need to re-mould capitalism as a force for good.

Thus the notion is that of an extended CSR , across what investment-auto-motives terms a “3-D perspective”. Encompassing consideration of those critical macro, micro and time-line issues across:

1. Macro – greater cohesion and clarity within global economic frameworks, geographies and demographics ...(on what investment-auto-motives terms the 'vertical plane' of today)

2. Micro – strengthened cohesion of critical commercial ties from initial project assessment and investment through various stages and phases to 'end of life' value re-capture...(the 'diagonal plane')

3. 'Chrono'- logical – increased consideration of cause and effects upon future generations and people's into the distant future...(the 'horizontal plane'...literally the 'chrono-logical').

The forum the idea of creating a more intelligent and conscientious economic culture, with as vital input, an understanding of how the successful socio-economic case studies of Germany and Nordic countries can possibly create platforms for renewed western economic systems.

Thereby promoting a greater sense of inclusive capitalism.

Main speakers at the IC forum naturally reverberated the same sentiment – it was after all a talking shop for that very cause – but there were other more esoteric takes.

At its most extreme, as purported by economist Jeremy Rifkin, this sees an emergence of 'near zero marginal cost' enablers, primarily via the “precipitating agent” of the internet, which powers massive productivity gains.

This connectivity so moulding a mentality of a “new sharing economy”.

Critics of such a future would call such a world little more than psuedo-communism given a capitalist slant. With no or little financial gain for the contributors / sharers; in effect a multitude of no or low pay 'cottage industry participants', increasingly over the global level as cyber-space becomes increasingly dominant.

Thus this supposed new form of 'turbo-capitalism' instead reflective of the low marginal costs which underpinned the USSR's ideology, and which eventually sapped people's enthusiasm and energies so stagnating socio-economic progress.

Those who are historically attuned will well recognise the parallel the west has today with that of Eastern Europe a century ago, whereby the once prosperous Prussian lands and Austro-Hungarian empire entered a socio-economic tipping-point into disarray and eventually communism once its capital saw new opportunities further afield in Western Europe and North America.

A concept too far?

The social dynamic of even London today appears that way.

At times with its mass cycling, the influence of the smart-phone as a tool to socially influence the screen-fixed, often unthinking “easily-led” amongst both the hooded and huddled increasingly tribal youth and the 'cyber-grouped' middle-aged. Plus especially the effects of a camara-phone wielding antagonistic society which (akin to stasi informers), means that London and elsewhere appears to mimic the worst aspects of the communist years in Warsaw, Budapest and Belgrade.

The “ICI'” Influence -

To add basic insight of the meetings apparent importance, the BBC states that when combined the financial fire-power of the attendees adds up to $30 trillion; approximately one-third of the world's investable assets.

To highlight the once prevalent power of the industry as a force for good, the IC forum's sponsors include the Ford Foundation, established by Edsel Ford in 1936 but long since separated from the auto-corporate. Given its long-standing social influence it inevitably has close ties to the US government, and obviously seeks to promote the USA's the soft-power hopes within the 21^st century.

Reviewing the Structure of Capitalism -

Here investment-auto-motives posits that one and all should start to consider the very 'bones of capitalism', so as to better understand the often nebulous ideology which moulds our society.

What was previously termed western capitalism, now global capitalism, is a complex system of interactions, both individually within and symbiotically.

Actions and reactions plying across the four notionally distinct worlds of 'financial services', 'main street' (both physical and cyber economies), the 'socio-political' all set within the broad context of the 'inter-geo-political'.

These realms act upon each-other in a myriad of inter-relationships, individually with domino-effect upon neighbour, and collectively during strong winds of positive or negative change and so outlook.

However, with regard to investment decision-making,the constant 'investor' perspective is the interpretation of a specific market's innate dynamic.

This consists of: available liquidity vs price vs perceived value.

Very simplistically, it appears that necessarily so, the historical process of capitalism is that of a process of ever fragmenting and more detailed commercial activities set within an ever growing volume of challenges/opportunities on a per head demand; valuation driven by the apparent “scarcity or balance of resources”.

Thus, expectedly so, the nexus of Adam Smith's and Robert Malthus' theorems which underlay “the dismal science” which it turn compels investment thinking toward the satisfaction and creation of demand and supply.

A Final Pause For Thought -

The staging of the IC conference is highly positive.

However, the citing of exemplar cases present and past invokes the idea of an easily achievable goal, when the restrictions and expectations of the real world will make any such journey harder than expected.

The 'guiding light' countries of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany are socially, culturally and structurally very different creatures to the likes of Britain, the USA or much of Southern Europe. Northern Europe's evolution into mutually inclusive, fair, modern societies stem from many reasons and critically core value systems which at heart have intrinsic central identity systems.

Likewise, 'guiding light' businesses such as Britain's John Lewis Group (which is ostensibly employee owned, and so provides for group participation and motivation) because of its self-determination, tends to better withstand economic recession given the willingness of staff to align to management's requirements. Critics will say that reliant upon recycled free-cash-flows and fixed income debt notes, such firms invariably operate as self-serving 'clubs', and are effectively closed to major structural reforms that would boost operational efficiencies and profits, and being remote from the accessible realm of publicly quoted stock markets, in good economic periods, act instead as an eventual constraints on true value creation for broader society.

Furthermore, there are those who view today's times as a modern-day parallel to the socio-economic climate which gave rise to the historic origins of the 19^th century cooperative societies. If Wall Street and The City and the network of nation-wide big businesses cannot be trusted to best serve the people, then time to create new cooperatives; to philosophically replace the morally defunct Co-op, itself largely subsumed by 'Mammon'; and undermined by its sloth-like historic executive structure wholly unsuited to a very much changed operational environment from its yesteryear heyday. Such highly valuable social enterprises were born from the need for workers to escape the local foodstuffs and goods monopolies of local robber barons, and did indeed bring far greater fairness in local trade, wider availability of choices and so life-style improvement for the many who joined such co-ops. But today (with very few rural exceptions) no local monopolist rules the conditions of local trade, and instead hyper-competition such as the 99p shop, the £1 shop and Dollar stores providing exceptional value for basic goods compared to only twenty years ago thanks to imported goods and globalisation. No new local co-op start-up could hope to match such purchasing and distributing power, unless much finance was injected into such a national campaign

Exactly how to re-shape the primary activities and outcomes of capitalism, so as to still promote proportionate endeavour and reward, yet also ensure that those in need are better served, is an age old dilemma.

Whilst the 'guiding light' cases do offer partial assistance, western capitalism (beyond the 'Valley' and 'Street') and guided by past political will, has already demonstrated its lost opportunity to create the type of and level of 'high value' activities, supported by well educated peoples, needed to maintain its role within the concept of global capitalism, itself increasingly influenced by EM capitalism.

This watershed could make for great change

But any simplistic notion of philosophically and practicably stepping onward from the seeming mass notion of capitalism as an unfairly tilted, 'zero-sum' game (with sharply contrasting winners and losers) toward some kind of truly even 'Nash equilibrium' (wherein all gain from rational choices), is ultimately a fatuous hope.

It would be little more than a farce if the IC forum were seen to offer such an outcome. It well recognises the complexities of capitalism and its participants across the social spectrum.

Platters of platitudes ? No.

True re-Imagination ? No

As ever, case of “ongoing work in progress”.

New Opportunity - The 'Flying Truck' - "Jack of All Trades" or "Pie in the Sky" Proposition

The past few weeks have seen American interests seek to undertake a continued shopping spree across the UK and Europe with Pfizer's much discussed take-over efforts of Astra-Zenica and GE's acquistional intent toward Alstrom; this the soft-power effects of previous massive QE measures.

Within the automotive world, it was no coincidence that FIAT renamed itself as FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automotive), pronounced simultaneously with the CFA Institute's meeting in Seattle; given the similarly lettered abbreviations. Whilst at the opposite end of the spectrum, the niche supercar producer Spyker advertised its '007' bond issuance, whereby investors purchasing a sizeable clutch of said 'notes' would be provided with the company's newest vehicle; a typical 'starter-motor' approach to the kick-starting of operational efforts seen throughout the history of the overtly 'sexy' niche production vehicles apparently set for supposed future heights.


Into Esoteric Reaches  -

The term 'hybrid' has long been apparent and associated with dual-source powertrains within cars, trucks, locomotives and even bicycles. Yet the term is obviously applicable far beyond simply the means of propulsion, essentially intertwining the amalgamation of two or more functions.

In a world where transport evolution has been ostensibly 'linear', wherein specific vehicle types have been dedicated to broadly a singular environment - that of land vs marine vs aeronautical - the history of vehicle evolution has been that of the ever more defined and definite within a specific environment and with specific utility.

The heavy tracked 'off-highway' construction machines through on-road trucks, conventional cars, the largely symbolic supercar and solar-powered EV racers demonstrate the breadth of extremes of the land realm. Whilst upon water a new generation of hyper-sized container ships (as introduced by Moller-Maersk) are diamterically opposed to the use of that icon the Riva Aquarama. And in the air, in one corner are the academic efforts to create ever greater distance human-powered flight in very lightweight constructions, versus the the largest and heaviest payload of the Antonov An-225, excluding of course space exploration.

These few examples illustrate how the three very seperate enviroments of land, sea and air, and specific vehicle functions ranging from the overtly commercial to the overly leisure orientated (and periodically the overtly academic) have primarily driven the evolution of mode-specific vehicles.

However, just as with singular powerplants versus dual-power hybrids, there has seemingly always been a band of experimentors and contrarians who themselves typically occupy small and often descrete industrial corners.

So throughout the apparently 'natural' linear course have been various instances of variously militarily funded, academic supported and (arguably better assessed) corporate financed exercises. Each avidly seeking to find solutions which provide for vehicle projects aligned to what are touted as instrinsic business cases over either the near, medium or long terms, or indeed toward the far horizon.

Each of which hopes to successfully operate within what appear seemingly obvious 'white spaces' either (more likely) within a specific land/sea/air realm, or more daringly across two or even the three traditionally and conventionally seperate transportational arenas.

Such a "white space opportunity" targeting the uncovered / unfulfilled market territory which has been either overlooked or previously deemed unsustainable due to technical, funding or other (often PESTEL related) difficulties.


Cross-Breeding Thus Far -

Given the innate operational limitatations of (often very design) dedicated vehicles to work within their own land realm (on and off road) and wholly unable to operate in water or in air, as long as conventional cars and trucks have existed their have been efforts to overcome these 'natural' limitations through the design of multi-environment vehicles.

Their has been greater success with land-to-water amphibious vehicles as opposed to land-to-air flying vehicles.

The former best exemplified via military applications such as the German Army's adapted VW Kubelwagen into the Schwimmenwagen and likewise the US Army's efforts to do likewise to the Willys and Ford Jeeps of the time; though the larger 'Duck' truck was more prevelent and has come to later serve as 'swimming' novelty tourist vehicles in various tourist cities (inc London). And during peacetime certain entrepreneurs have sought to create similar leisure-craft ranging from the British Amphicar of 1960s (4,000 made), various vehicles made by Gibbs Industries in smaller quantities; with the adaption of ATVs also a contemporary trend. Military forces have maintained an interest in amphibious vehicle capabilities given the western need (via NATO) need to have a wide span of operation with increasingly constrained funding from governments, and appear to have settled upon proven moth-balled and re-commisssioned old wheeled technology' wheeled, and upon newer track systems incorporated into boat-like hulls.

However, it appears that far less success has been had in cross-breeding car and trucks with aircraft.

The stuff of 1950s science-fiction ever promoted the idea of "The Flying Car'', which especially within the USA set-off a sub-culture which flourished to this day. Similarly childrens films such as 'Chitty Chitty Bang Bang' and 'Harry Potter' showcased "magical" flying cars as did a transformative AMC Matador in James Bond's 'Man With The Golden Gun'. But no such vehicle has successfully been created or adopted given the technical, regulatory and social problems encountered. However, there have been notable attempts such as Henry Ford's concept of a 'Flying Flivver', the US Armies efforts of a 'Flying Jeep' in WW2 and the better known 1949-60s Aerocar. By the 1990s the SkyCar had been conceptually evolved by a Dr Moller at that time after 20 years of incremental research and sporadic funding. However, Moller's history has demonstrated that the capital investment provided has been absorbed by operating costs (however they be allocated) and the deposit funding for the delivery of new vehicles to customers has likewise been absorbed. The seemingly only outcome being the low-height demonstration of a tethered SkyCar in 2003. Today Moller espouses its 'ground effect' based Volantor / Neuera which cosmetically similar to the 'Jetson's' flying car is described as operational only at a low-level (using the down-draft cushion of ground-effect air).


Hopes of the "Flying Truck" -

Advanced Tactics Incorporated of the USA has over the last half-year or so been publicising a new vehicle concept which hopes to cross-breed the functional aspects of a multi-rotar helicopter and that of a cargo / passenger carrying off-road truck

From this one basic premis, two projects have been promoted relating to 2 vehicles of different sizes and slightly different raison d'etre.

The seemingly best known is the Black Knight Transformer, the lesser 'off-shoot' being the Panther Transformer.

The central concept has been to effectively try and simulate the flying dynamics of those multi-rotar remote control toy and model craft which have become so prevelant over the last 5-7 years, though they themselves tend to be little more than hover novelty items.

The basic layout of light fuselage and 4 / 6 / 8 rotars however has seemingly been viewed as a useful engineering package for next generation observation drones which unlike their first generation fixed wing counterparts are better suited to urban conditions given the ability to hover stationary.

[NB Quite why the multi-rotar has overtaken the conventional single rotor helicopter design is unclear, but presumably is better able to avoid even stationary movements of 'pitch' and 'yaw'].


The Black Knight -

Thuis vehicle is seen as the core programme consisting of a large capacity body and 8 rotars, and the central effort from which a later 'Panther' vehicle will be derived, itself a smaller craft.

The Black Knight's general engineering specifications (in its overall size at least) has been set so as to transport and collect able and injured service people from front-line war zones. It deploys 8 rotars, one to each of its square body corners and two mounted mid-ships on either side, and is dimensionally: 31 ft long, 19 ft wide and 8 ft tall. To maximise payload and internal volume. Advanced Tactics Inc states that the craft would has a operational ceiling of 10,000 ft and a driven on-ground speed of 70 mph.

The smaller Panther, imagined as deployed for more exacting "special service missions' has 6 rotors and dimensions of 23 ft long, 17 ft wide and 8 ft tall.


Product Remit -

Black Knight itself is envisaged as landing in a safe zone away from the front-line then able to drive in and collect (and retrieve) injured personnel, so not requiring the in-situ infantry team-members to physically lift and return the injured person over what may be a long and hazardous distance to safety and medical assistance, and so able to retain the remaining members as an active force.

As part of its modular-build philosophy AT Inc also states that the props, engines and outriggers can be removed so and a boat-like hull attached to provide a water transport vehicle.


Backdrop and Rationale -

Over the last 13 years or so western military forces have faced ever greater funding pressures as the USA and European nations (under the NATO banner), and over that period utilised much of the investment and equipment stemming from research and development in the 1990s and from previous decades.

As a result there has been much in the way of lower-cost, incremental product and service life-cycle extensions to re-equip and modernise land, sea and air vehicles; items like the 1960s Sea King, Puma and iconic Chinook twin-fan helicopter revised, the Hummer constantly adapted and likewise (though perhaps to a lesser degree) boats and ships re-equiped as more modern navigation and weaponary systems were introduced.

With the increasing national debt burdens of western countries being stretched by QE measures to re-inflate domestic and intra-regional economies, nearly all aspects of governmental budgets are being either frozen or cut.

During this era it is recognised that greater NATO capability integration is necessary so as to try and maintain as much general capability as possible. Yet likewise (as is the historical norm during contraction periods) military agencies seek to explore how smaller budgets may be deployed more intelligently. This means that the subject of 'multi-role' vehicles is very much on the table and understandably seen by many as the 'holy grail'. The obvious hope to increase the span of "in the field operation" in terms of broad functionality and thus greater time spent deployed so reducing costs and maximising value.

Though it should be noted that such solutions inevitably have innate performance compromises, so result in the compromises being assessed and balanced in theoretical form 'on-paper', and the resulting engineering package typically the optimisation of said compromises.

Nonetheless, the idea of a vehicle which has broad functionality in standard guise and/or can be relatively easily reconfigured via a modular-basis for multi-variant guises and tasks, is an appealing one.
      

Programme Funding -

Having been approved by the US Congressed, the Black Knight programme is presently being financed through the US Army's 'Tele-medicine and Advanced Technology Research Centre' and US Marines' Warfighting Laboratory so as to develop and test a "roadable VTOL aircraft. [VTOL the acronym for Vertical Take Off and Landing...as per the Harrier 'jump jet'].

Similarly, the Panther project is being sponsored by the 'Air Force Research Laboratory' as part of its "special ops transport challenge programme"

No programme fee details for the 'Transformer' projects appear to be available publicly. However, the USAAF's budget for 2015 is approximately $11.542 trillion. The portion of the 2014 budget aligned to "Airlift Aircraft" as opposed to "Combat" or "Other" is $1.303 trillion". Thus the primary programme that is Black Knight will be drawn from here.


Project Brief -

The following criteria set:

- Transport of at least 2 people + equipment
(this appears to vie against the idea of a sizeable personnel carrier)
- Able to carry 700 lbs gross payload
- Range of 30 kms or more over mountainous terrain
- Fit into the Boeing CV-22 cargo-hold (for transportation)
- A 4 hour 'dress' period from storage condition to flight
- Operate automonously in day and night and poor conditions
- Consider OSHA and AF standards


Public Domain Progress to Date -

Thus far Advanced Tactics Inc. has produced 2 videos (viewable via youtube) promoting its work.

The first was promoted as a concept prototype, but consisted of nothing more than a remote control 8 rotar small model with enlarged fuselage. The camara was deliberately positioned far from the "prototype" vehicle, the distance possibly used to blur the fact that it was only an adapted off-the-shelf or purpose-made scale model. However, the high-pitched whine of what are effectively electric fans highlighted the fact that the demonstration was little more than a publicity event promoting a far from proven concept.

The second video [dated 22nd March 2014] shows what appears a full-sized prototype operating at a low hover (perhaps 8-10ft) and with apparent slow forward movement set within a similar semi-desert environment. It also shows the vehicle moving slowly over the generally flat but unpaved ground. (The speed and progress on ground suggests the use of electric motors).

[NB an orange hi-visibility traffic cone is seen in both videos, presumably as a continuity device to demonstrate project progress].

Advanced Tactics explains that the life-sized prototype is controlled via auto-pilot, with a human pilot simply increasing and decreasing engine power. It was described as "stable, controllable and performed as expected".


Prospective Clients -

Advanced Tactics Inc obviously sees a commercial opportunity for the provision of Black Knight and Panther to the US Army and USAAF, and obviously seeks to offer its products to other such international forces. And whilst presently directed at military applications, the company's own marketing plan will obviously have civil applications listed. It is presumed that these are:

- Peace-keeping forces (UN)
- Disaster relief agencies (Red-Cross, Red Crescent etc)
- Urban Air Ambulance
- Urban Police Special Ops ('SWAT' and Anti-Terrorism) 
- Specific gov't and state agencies
(in mountainous, forest-dense and ribbon-river places)
- Adventure travel companies
- Airlines serving short island-hop routes


Engineering Package -

Black Knights engineering layout has been seen in the past, but (as stated) is clearly inspired and drawn from the fascination with multi-rotor remote-control model craft and toys of recent years. With it comes advantages and disadvantages which must be properly understood and considered.

Pros:
- Simple initial construction, service dress and variant re-configuration
- Use of readily available low-cost materials, components and systems
(in current square "flat-pack" guise)
- Remote controlled operation option
- Simple CKD or 'glocal' full manufacture

Cons:
- Cost of 8 engine units (even though off-the-shelf [COTS])
- The 'decoupling' of propeller and wheel engine / drive-train
(an 'elegant' solution is to utilise one powerplant for both modes,
see VW Schwimmenwagen, saving weight and cost)
- The use (cost and mass) of separate electric motor and batteries
- Likelihood of craft instability in certain conditions
(the positioning of 8 engines so high gives a high centre of gravity,
 so promoting vehicle tip-over when driving across hilly ground
and when in boat mode in rough conditions)
- The need for up-armouring of vehicle in front-line environment
(so adding to cost and weight and so undermining performance)  

[NB although Advanced Tactics Inc indicates that engines would be removed for the body on hull contraption, there would be a high probability that the military would wish to use the craft as a small flying boat given its component parts. Thus the vehicle should be designed with this function as an inherent capability].


Alternative Proposal Possibilities -

Any vehicle designed for such an extreme functional span will (as seen) be invariably optimised toward one of the conflicting challenges posed, and Black Knight has been seemingly and necessarily orientated toward its flight role.

However, investment-auto-motives suggests that before travelling down this apparent singular solution route - with its innate drawbacks - that the US Army and USAAF utilise their funds to perhaps better explore alternative engineering packages on the same theme with other institutions and companies, whether from academia, independent aero-engineering consultancies, the broader engineering world, or even conventional helicopter manufacturers (with proviso that they do not "revert to type").

This is because on an off-the-cuff basis, it is suggested that the innate disadvantages of Black Knight could be overcome.

One alternative re-package possibility utilising:

- A sandwich floor structure
- Containing a set of horizontally opposed boxer engines
- Each engine driving two parallel (clutch independent) rotors
(ie 4 engines for 8 rotors, reducing GVW)
- Via collapsable half-shafts / driveshafts
- Enabling outriggers to be dismantled and swung inboard for stowage
- Fan blades aligned and stowed vertically flat against side of vehicle
- So lowering the C of G for ground and water travel

This is but one idea with no serious exploration.


Conclusion -

As no doubt many senior and well experienced military chiefs will attest, the promise of a truly capable 'jack of all trades' vehicle is by its very nature an elusive promise.

Hence whilst some progress has been made with amphibious vehicles, far less so has been achieved with 'flying trucks' able to assist either personnel retrieval from the battleground, personnel delivery to hot-spot places or as importantly in the guise of logistics support craft.

Thus forces have invariably 'battled-on' with suits of very different, task-dedicated vehicles, which invariably become ever more specialised for specific conditions. This especially so at the front line where demands are so much greater. Whereas civilian sourced or lightly civilian modified vehicles can be true budget cost savers where basic transportation needs are required.

Black Knight (and Panther) seek to combine the best of both worlds with the creation of a progressive new vehicle type. However, investment-auto-motives believes that greater conceptual investigation is warranted by not just US agencies but other NATO forces and indeed also non-NATO forces.

However, the application of intelligent thinking should be applauded given the need to align to today's and tomorrow's budget constraints within the context of ever greater urbanisation and the possibility / probability of urban orientated social fractures.

In doing so a new generation of civilian craft could be effectively co-created which go on to serve humanity in a more productive manner to save ever more lives and spread new avenues of commercial and leisure possibilities, from newly emergent mega-city centres to the historical innaccessability of remote eco-regions.

Industry Practice - Mentalities and Approaches - Sage Quotations

Earnings releases for Q1 2014 continue to be reported, and as they do, the financial markets react accordingly; both rationally and irrationally. When all of the eleven major automotive players have submitted their summaries and presentations, investment-auto-motives will obviously provide its well established provision of 'Couples Ratios'. Doing so at a prescient point after the immediate reactive volatility has settled.

[NB it should be stated that the Q4/FY 2013 analysis was intentionally not provided given what appeared strong 'peaking' and 'barrel-rolling' within many corporate share-price graphs, then suggesting a short-term pull-back and price contraction. This did indeed arrive with the usual high-volume stock rotation ploy of institutionals and investment banks, moving from cyclical-orientated stocks which had surpassed fair-value toward other stock classes. Portions of funds were no doubt were directed toward what became the tail-end of the notional 'growth stories' of tech and bio players, itself soon heavily contracted as early-birds took profits (at the cost of institutionals). With presumably a greater portion taken 'off the table' awaiting the return of fair valued industrials, associated services and other macro-related companies; the cheap stock era now a very distant memory].

Instead of the immediacies and detail of automotive stocks - various back to 'fair value' having 'peaked' and 'rolled'  - this weblog provides a far more esoteric and philosophical tone.

At long...long...long last, the real economies of the hardest hit by the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis are demonstrating new signs of 'green shoots' growth vitality so counter-balancing and substantiating the previous ferver of financial markets confidence. This 'traction' theoretically self-perpetuating, so feeding further business expectation (whilst in the midst of continued debt deleveraging, 'lean' inventory management and necessary 'thin' labour levels) and so new investment.

Given the immense time-lag if the recovery - in real terms nigh on a decade long - much will now be expected of those in the younger generation, those in their twenties and thirties who, unlike their 'over-exposed' cynical elders, imbue the much needed optimism.

This state of affairs is seen within the story-lines of the 'New Troubleshooter' TV series, Digby Jones stepping into the modern-day shoes of Harvey-Jones, demonstrating how many of Britain's (and no doubt Europe's and America's) oft family run SMEs must substantially "raise their game" if they are to compete within what is now a far flatter and intensively competitive globalised commercial world; with the obvious intrinsic message of "higher value", "brand generation" and (to rehash the 1950s and 1970s edict) "export or die".

Previously investment-auto-motives relayed the wise learning and thoughts of many acclaimed 20th century investors, so to compliment, at this very important juncture within the new global (re)growth story, it is worthwhile re-absorbing the broader business perspectives of well known and less famous 'sages'.


Prescient Quotations -
in no specific order

"Business has continued to be more interested in thinking, in general, more than any other sector of society. The explaination for this is because there is a reality test; there is a bottom-line. There are sales figures and profit figures. There are results."
(Edward de Bono - 2010)

"Loose ideas on the subject of business will not answer. It must be reeduced to something of a science. It has principles, upon a knowledge and an application of which. success in it depands"
(Christian Nestell Bovee - 1862)

"The performance of business leaders during the next decades will play a major role in determining not only business but political and social trends for a long time to come. Principle reasons being:
a) business leaders control the economic well being of enterprise and stockholder
b) the course of business shapes public opinion
c) thus business leaders shapes public opinion

So in addition to his/her prime responsibilities of managing for profit, the business leader is faced with new and larger responsibilities. And at the same time the immediate job is increasing in complexity. Consequently, the imposition of additional responsibilities makes this nation's task of developing an adequate number of properly equipped executives leaders a staggering one indeed."
(Marvin Blower - 1949)

"What I must understand is why someone will continue to get out of bed in the morning once they have all the money they could want. Do they love the business or do they love the money?"
(Warren Buffett - 1999)

"The man of business knows that only by years of patient, unremitting attention to affairs can he earn his reward, which is the result, not of chance, but of well deserved means for the attainment of ends."
(Andrew Carnegie - 1913)

"The men (and women) who succeed are the efficient few. They are the few who have the ambition and will power to develop themselves"
(Herbert N Casson - 1933)

"Goodness is always an asset. A man who is straight, friendly and useful may never be famous, but respected and liked by all who know him. He has laid the foundation of success and will have a worthwhile life"
(Herbert N Casson - 1948)

"Part of America's industrial problems is the aim of its corporate managers. Most American executives think they are in the business to make money, rather than a product or a service. The Japanese corporate credo is that a company must become the world's most efficient provider of whatever product and service it offers. Once done and continued, profits follow"
(W E Deming - 1982)

"You can hardly have too much harmony in business. But you can go too far in picking men because they harmonize"
(Henry Ford - 1922)

"If we are all in agreement on the decision - then I propose we postpone further discussion until our next meeting, to give ourselves time to develop disagreements and better understand what the decision is about"
Alfred P. Sloane - 1920s)

"Every new development, highway, railroad, steamship line, building operation, whether a drainage project in Old Greece or a new water system in New Peru, means added use of the automobile".
(Walter Chrysler - 1920s)

"There is only one social responsibility of business. To use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits, so long as it stays within the rules of the game. Which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud."
(Milton Friedman - 1970)

"Perpetual devotion to what man calls his business, is only to be sustained by perpetual neglect of many other things".
(Robert Louis Stevenson - 1881)

"Our main obligation is not to mistake slogans for solutions"
(Edward R Murrow)

"People err when they think they can be inhuman exploiters in their business life, and loving family members at home"
(Smiley Blanton)

"It is unfortunate that we can't buy many business executives for what they are [actually] worth, and sell them for what they think they are worth"
(Malcolm Forbes)

"If all economists were laid end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion"
(George Bernard Shaw)

"Business is infested with idiots who try to impress by using pretentious jargon"
(David Ogalvy)

"Real riches are the riches possessed inside"
(B C Forbes)

"An organisation's ability to learn, and translate that learning into  action rapidly, is ultimate competitive advantage"
(Jack Welch)

"Being good in business is the most fascinating kind of art. Making money is art and working is art...and good business is the best art"
(Andy Warhol)

"I am always doing that which I cannot do, so I may learn how to do it."
(Pablo Picasso)

"We have not noticed how fast the rest have risen. Most of the industrialised world, and a good part of the non-industrialised world, has a better cell-phone service than the USA, they have better broadband, America 16th down the list. All the while we are told by politicians that the US is #1. Whilst nearly a third of our school system is disfunctional"
(Fareed Zakaria - 2010)

"Sooner or later, those who win are those who think they can"
(Paul Tournier - unknown)

"Ambitious people climb and climb, with great labour and incessent anxiety"
(Robert Browning)

"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends upon the unreasonable man."
(George Bernard Shaw)