Here in Britain, the
Chancellor of the Exchequer's 'Autumn Statement' of late 2014
presented the fact that rebalancing the books of the country across
the accounting measures of Debt, Deficit and Structural Deficit will
take nigh-on twice the timespan forecast back in 2010.
Memory of any Christmas
/ New Year celebrations are now replaced by consideration of the
economic future. An individual's prosperity the theoretical result of
personal education and efforts combined with potency of the nation's
development capability: any visionary economic agenda supported by
strength of public and private finances.
The Historical Context
-
In this critical regard
from an investment perspective, Britain - like much of the west –
may be viewed by economic rationalists with an overt historical
perspective, as past its best. Long gone are the tentacles of a
militarily gained empire with its inbound gains of associated trade,
processing industries and increased consumption seen over the 18th,
19th century's; its tail-end the early 20th
century model of supporting the economic development of the
Commonwealth likewise dwindled as those newly independent countries
themselves import critical developmental capital goods and consumer
goods from elsewhere.
Instead, by the early
1980s the UK's economy had started to grow ever more
“post-industrial” and consequentially toward being
“services-orientated” aided by “new-tech” both facilitated by
the central hub of “financial services”, itself plying increasing
liquidity from increasingly private and global institutional sources.
National industries privatised to enable either substantial
re-investment in future-forward sectors (typically allied with the
transformative IT revolution), or divested to better placed, low
cost-base foreign companies. To counter-act such losses, a world of
new possibilities with solutions directed at commercial 'info-tech'
and domestic 'leisure-tech' realms, with the goals of respectively
improving commercial and inter-social efficiency and deepening the
escapist experience.
Critically by the mid
1990s the emergent topic of balancing global development with the
need to temper humanity's adverse effects upon nature had become
ideologically prevalent. The “eco” dimension thereafter became
increasingly apparent and applied; the auto-sector the leading
activist regards feasible eco-evolution, in recognition of its own
responsibilities whilst bounded by business reality.
By the turn of the
millennium the 'communication age' had become wholly crystallised,
the seemingly exponential growth of data-streaming speeds for
internet connected and tablets and smart-phones providing the basis
for the apparent new economic miracle of web-based commercial and
social existence.
Beyond Today, Into
Tomorrow -
Although today there
still remains partial focus upon the broad universe and 'outer-space'
the days of cold-war technical competition have gone, at least for
the west, as the overt force of nationalism is replaced by a
corporatism that seeks to better explore and extract value from the
'shared-space' of an urbanised global society and reaching further
into the psychological 'inner-space' of individual and group
preference and behaviour.
As stated previously
through-out investment-auto-motives' web-logs, wholly critical will
be the ability to better connect the 20th century's
“physical world” (of infrastructure, consumer goods and capital
equipment) to the newer “e-based new-world”. This to be achieved
via by which emergent trends, whether they be policy-driven,
media-driven or apparently people-drive. Never before has such an
increasingly strong connection between the social will and physical
outcome been created. Whether via newly manufactured 'green' goods,
recycled / “up-cycled” items or indeed the retro-fitment of
green-tech to specific items where plausible.
To do so, and to derive
an expanded economic development template, Britain must continue to
re-invent itself with vision and tenacity toward what today may be
described as the 'shared-space' and 'inner-space' idioms.
The Default Position
for Phase 1 Re-Development -
Presently UK government
focus spotlights the tried and tested road to economic growth: that
of infrastructure spending. It is a formulae that spans back to the
policies of Egyptian Pharaohs, Feudal Lords, Victorian Social
Reformers and Global Presidents; the EM nations seen as most
prevalent practitioners. Likewise for Britain today, road, rail,
airport and domestic build projects have been publicised as economic
catalysts, to be undertaken via the necessary template of
public-private finance initiatives.
This portends well for
the critically important initial stages of economic recovery, as the
new dual sourced liquidity is injected into such enterprises, and a
mosaic mix of executives, managers, technical and operational staff
gain income, thereafter recirculating these monies across the broad
social stratum and ultimately into various commercial realms; from
food and farming to culture and sport.
However, this must be
viewed as the typical 'default position' for Phase 1 of national
re-growth.
As this very visible
physical expansion and physical renewal gains ground, so
simultaneously renewed vision(s) for Britain's continued place and
role within advanced 'eco' and 'cyber' manufacturing must become
equally, and ideally far more, concrete.
Formulating a
Progressive Phase 2 -
It is all to obvious,
that as never before, there is a requirement for yet speedier
Renaissance and Revolution in Britain's manufacturing base. Itself
credibly led by the scaling-up and diversified application of
laboratory and test-bed efforts to date. Herein, the ostensibly
high-profile yet paradoxically oft over-looked arena that is
“Advanced Automotive” should be seen as a guiding light and
enabler.
The philosophy of
'advanced automotive' has effectively been part and parcel of Britain
ever since the efforts of the Lanchester Brothers amongst many
others.
Although arguably over-shadowed by Germany in the 1930s, 1950s and 2000s, the French periodocally and the Japanese since the 1980s - such progress driven by pressures of motor-sport, brand kudos, performance and eco mass-manufacture – it has meant that over the past 25 years or so even Britain's comparitively under-funded research and development impetus has stretched over a wide spectrum.
Although arguably over-shadowed by Germany in the 1930s, 1950s and 2000s, the French periodocally and the Japanese since the 1980s - such progress driven by pressures of motor-sport, brand kudos, performance and eco mass-manufacture – it has meant that over the past 25 years or so even Britain's comparitively under-funded research and development impetus has stretched over a wide spectrum.
From the creation of a
hybrid-engined Mini Metro concept 'mule' by Rover Group in the early
1990s to the exploration of multi-directional avenues for efficient powertrain, electrical, chassis, structural and external body solutions.
With regards to the former: hydrogen-stacks for EVs, super-capacitors applied to EVs and hybrids, variable forced induction of small sized conventional engines, variable valve timing also applied to exhaust gas escape, the dynamic de-coupling and re-coupling of ancillery equipment to reduce parasitic losses, to the now well publicised use of 'KERS' technology in F1 racers; Britain the sport's technology-hub. The other four systems arenas likewise explored in old and new ways to improve singular and combined performance.
With regards to the former: hydrogen-stacks for EVs, super-capacitors applied to EVs and hybrids, variable forced induction of small sized conventional engines, variable valve timing also applied to exhaust gas escape, the dynamic de-coupling and re-coupling of ancillery equipment to reduce parasitic losses, to the now well publicised use of 'KERS' technology in F1 racers; Britain the sport's technology-hub. The other four systems arenas likewise explored in old and new ways to improve singular and combined performance.
Interestingly, a fore-runner to the modern KERS energy harvesting process was initially deployed by early innovators such as Dr Porsche, and in the early 1930s seen in pantagraph powered electric trolley-buses during an age of
geo-political instability and energy 'insecurity'. Yet this
technology's cost-benefit in turn surpassed by changed macro back-drops as the development of the
lightweight monocoque Routemaster bus in the mid 1950s was designed as to now be powered by lower-cost petrol, itself sourced from the “stabilised” (ie UK aligned) Middle East.
Critically, these previous examples from the 30's, 50's, 90's and 2010's provide a but a few
illustrations of the history and progress of advanced vehicle
creation and deployment in the UK, itself a technically diverse field
at the centre of energy and ecological matters.
Proof is seen by the
macro-aligned broad and constantly re-focusing engineering activities
of various UK firms, Ricardo plc perhaps the best known example.
National Ambition -
In this regard Britain,
whilst new infrastructure projects will indeed boost the economy both
as short and mid term fiscal generator and as long-term facilitator,
and whilst the e-economy continues to offer much hope (even with its
many inherent failed ventures), government must simultaneously
ascertain how best to subtly prompt and assist SME and blue-chip
firms which explore and promote those physical goods provide
re-engineered and newly-engineered 'eco' and 'cyber' solutions.
Thereby rebalancing the
activities of the wider national economy, and the re-weighting of the
country's Balance of Trade account back toward high-value 'visible'
goods given that portions of the services based 'invisible' trade
have long been replicated at reduced cost by EM nations seeking their
own path.
For the UK continuing
down the right road to future prosperity is crucial, but critical
also is the need to plausibly re-imagine and re-engineer the everyday
items we interact with, this process core to Phase 2 of ongoing
economic renewal.
A period which might be
termed “Renaissance and Revolution”
To Follow -
The second part of this
weblog presents a snap-shot picture of Britain's economic and
industrial challenge:
- its standing still
amongst the ruins of the 2008 crash
- its weakened position
magnified vis-a-vis obvious EM nations
- its re-aligned
industrial competencies
- its lessons learned
from UK Autos “travails of yesteryear”
- its counter-play of
UK Autos thru' foreign FDI
- its need to
recognised 'warning signs' ahead
- its high value
products and identities
- its need for
continued Renaissance matched by Revolution
- its need to soundly
assess and develop future industrial projects 
