Industry Practice – UK Manufacturing – Renaissance and Revolution: 2015+ (Part 4)

As seen in Part 3, for all the wholly understandable moralistic bemoaning of its detractors, it must be understood that Capitalism is a notionally rationally optimised socio-economic system; apparently guided by the 'invisible hand' of Adam Smith. Though of course whilst EM Capitalism still demonstrates its powerful effectiveness, ever since the 2008 financial crisis Western Capitalism has, and continues to be, supported by major intervention of fiscal agencies.

Detractors then must instead recognise that negative experiences derive from the endemically entwined social, institutional and propagandist structures of any and all socio-economic systems.

The Ideal of Philanthropic Capitalism -

(As Part of a New Economic Era)

Thus Capitalism's detractors should instead look to the specific negative actions of the system's most powerful self-serving actors, and instead of wailing against an 'ism', preferably seek to ensure that through whatever practicable means, that such participants maintain a moral code by staying within touch of the broad populace, instead being “a world apart”. This better social balance perhaps best illustrated by the prime participants (wealthy families and individuals) of Nordic-Saxon Capitalism, from Sweden's Wallenbergs and Ingvar Kamprad (IKEA) to Germany's Quandts (BMW). Of note is IKEA's holding company, set up as charity, yet using tax minimisation and anti-takeover tools to boost the social influence of the mixed commercial and charitable enterprise.

Recognition of the ongoing socio-economic severity for many across Britain highlights the importance of the debate about exactly how UK economic reconstruction should continue. Prior to the Conservative-Liberal Coalition gaining power, the Tories looked to Scandanavian Fiscal policy for partial guidance. Today then, as the election looms, perhaps time to promote broader aspects of the Scandanavian social approach, especially that akin to IKEA's social conscience. Such a model would obviously maximise the positive tailwinds of QE directed through commerce and counter-act the 'austerity' headwind of reduced public spending.

[NB the recent events reported in Copenhagen are sadly more harmful to the social unity of the indigenous Christian and secular Danes, than actually for apparently 'victimised' jews or 'dis-enfranchised' muslims. This so given the proclivity for generally fair-minded Danes to inevitably “pick a side” (in the millennial-old battle) out of a sense of empathised injustice. However, outcomes could all too ironically create fractures within what has historically been a very unified society. And could possibly even eventually generate home-grown reactionaries (akin to Norway's Anders Breivik) whose actions were born directly from concern about foreign-influence and associated “values fragmentation” of his historically more isolated yet generally more honourable society].

Nonetheless, it is the inherent fairness of the historic Scandinavian social attitude, still very prevalent today, which has the greatest role to play in the UK today.

Britain's Ongoing Transformation -

As the BBC continues to reshape so as to befit both 'corporation' and “.co.uk” monikers, and likewise the NHS continues its seemingly traumatic journey of cost vs efficiency rationalisation, the most recent call for national enterprise vision has come from the civil engineering sector, seeking the creation of an 'Infrastructure Manifesto' by which energy, transport and habitation may be optimally directed so as to attract investment and provide something akin to a necessary 'national operational template'.

As previously detailed in Part 2 with mention of the Technical Strategy Board / InnovateUK, since the mid-2000s the nation's manufacturing sector has, from both the annuls of Whitehall and “the Regions” philosophically undergone its own epiphany. Whereby very necessarily it has been recognised that Britain must continue to progress itself further up the economic 'value-curve'; more broadly deploying those leading edge capabilities across research, engineering, production, distribution and (B2B / B2C) retailing. The phrase 'High Value Manufacturing' (HVM) now an increasing constituent part of the economic expansion discussion.

Four Pillars of HVM -

For the period of this post, the accompanying graphic depicts what are perhaps the four socio-technical elements required to, from 2015 onward, provide Britain with the impetus for economic fruition.

Previously investment-auto-motives described how for all the importance of a QE enabled “Phase 1” physical re-construction era in infrastructure – and beyond the still enormously vital role of the service sector (both public and private) - a great portion of future “Phase 2” economic prosperity will rely upon the en mass ability to embrace, utilise and further development a wide range of intellectual, practical and organisational capabilities which pertain to a wide spectrum technical advancement.

Moreover, such technical advancement in visible, tangible, physical guise would very probably gain from far greater respect for the additionally interactive and contributive skills of the capable crafts-person and indeed (as applicable) artist.

In this way, future premium, future luxury, future eco and future cyber orientated products gain not simply the market advantage of increasingly 'magical' technical prowess, but also - as warranted by product type and business-case – the addition of inherently value-enhancing “human connectivity”.

In this way technology is demonstrably seen to serve humanity, not vice versa, so re-directing the notion that humans continue to become psychologically enslaved by all that is connected to their own cognitive detriment.

“March of the Makers” -

Ambition for renewed 'economic reach' – which includes a thus far a generally lacklustre “March of the Makers” (given multi-sector restructuring) - consists of investor, managerial, labour and plant capabilities directed at both the UK's domestic requirements and its comparitive international industrial competitive advantage.

Very simplistically, the “four pillars” enabling 'economic reach' relative to 'HVM' are:

- Business “Nounce”

- Enthusiasm and Tenacity

- Multi-Aspect Advanced Engineering

- 3-D Precision meets Arts-Crafts

Personification and Example-

Business “Nounce”:

The 1990s rise of EM regions and simultaneous leveraging / gearing of the world's capital markets – largely situated in the West – created conditions by which resultant waves of liquidity (even after the burst bubble of the late 1990s dotcom boom) forever sought to plough that accumulated cash into “the next big thing”. As the promise of mass audience monetisation grew within that era of www-mania fervent 'animal spirits' overtook rationality, as anything and everything with a half plausible business model was financed in the expectation that the few big-win enterprises would more than off-set the losses incurred by failed start-ups.

This mania, though to an admittedly lesser degree, also took hold across mainstream financing of conventional business, with high street banks filling the newly created roles of 'Business Advisors' with young, minimally trained and sometimes commission pay-enhanced staff who in reality had never spent time with, let alone properly appreciate, the macro and micro complexities of SME firms.

Liquidity and so credit then wholly disorientated what had traditionally been an overtly conservative lending system which had previously matured over the preceding centuries with old-style business methods and perspectives.

Booming world markets across most regions and sectors appeared to be the “investor's oyster”, with even those under-performing sectors and associated assets considered ripe for transformation with business model modification. When one business idea was seen to “fly” less attention was drawn to the manner of its detailed execution than its “concept”, in turn creating a mania based upon ever more abstract hyper-reality. Increasingly lax lending attitudes spread across the broad spectrum of commerce; especially so where banks were happy to secure lending for the asset-rich middle classes seeking “alternative” and “personally enriching lifestyles” in business, ranging from going “all-in” into a capital intensive new SME venture (eg micro-brewing), to the turnaround of failed local businesses (various), to the scaling-up of a hobby business (eg home-kitchen cookery).

In short, the critical element of “business nounce”, which had provided systemic stability for generations, became increasingly conspicuous by its extended absence.

After the social tone set by the heady heights of the dotcom era, the word 'investment' itself became very much muddied and applied all to easily to give the impression of value, from business schemes which are little more than high-odds gamble, to uttered fast and loose in the everyday 'sales patter' of home-shopping TV presenters, lifestyle councillors, etcetera.

The first appearance of the TV series 'Dragon's Den' crystallised that zeitgeist, though thankfully also highlighting the harsh strategic, tactical and operational reality of the business world. (Its Japanese originators and producers far more “business savvy” than most of the entrepreneurial candidates; as witnessed by its successful international licensing and replication).

Instead, for the necessary reality check of commerce we should look to a very different TV show; one which aired during the early 1980s and produced by Yorkshire Television. Yorkshire itself a region undergoing major structural change during the period, as old family firms in declining industries continued to flail and were about to be publicly supplanted by a crop of new IT related businesses which espoused the new communications era (ie fax machine, mobile phone) and the shared-wealth promise of British Telecom's stock-market listing.

Though light entertainment humour in style, it offered over-egged but essentially 'real-world' content; content all too familiar to the SME business owner. The kinds of people who survive and possibly prosper using either their handed-down or hard-earned “Business Nounce”.

'The Gaffer' was personified by the fictional character Fred Moffatt, owner of 'Moffat Engineering Co', a small business situated within the Victorian back roads of aYorkshire town. He represents what might be called the 'canny grafter', someone who constantly assessing any given situation to turn challenges into opportunities. Episode plots demonstrate his pro-business yet cynical attitude, itself honed through experience. Critically he honed the ability to think laterally when dealing with issues; whether unionised staff demands, client prospecting, operational problems in order book fulfilment, dealing with the (olde worlde) bank manager etc.

He drove a battered old Rover P6 ( itself a nod to innovative engineering) and wore a battered old brown trilby hat (which itself might be analogous to the many “coloured hats” which must be worn by Edward de Bono's interpretation of a 'lateral-thinker')

His skill, though seemingly Machiavellian in appearance, was actually the ability to recognise the nub of a multi-faceted situation and orchestrate 'win-win' outcomes for himself and any 3rd party. With disdain for bull-shit, showiness, officialdom, social heirachy and pretence, he represented the pragmatic realist who was very much needed during the dark-times of the early 1980s.

Even though he was scruffy in appearance, the fact is that Fred Moffatt highlights the personality traits that UK plc requires at all levels of commerce and finance, from market stall holder to blue-chip CEO, from the small business lending managers of high street banks to the CFOs of utility and investment banks.

The character's golden quips abound, full of essential wisdom; such as when speaking about what he views as an inadequate council leader states: “its usually the man in the crow's nest who is last to know about the hole in the hull”.

The more Moffatt-type business acumen prevails in private and public spheres - though ideally without his gruffness - the more sound UK private industry, the public balance-sheet, and overall general investment would be.

Enthusiasm and Tenacity:

There still exists a perception that Britain often fails to develop and commercialise its home grown inventions, and that its own dedicated technology districts – from Cambridge Technology Park to the newer “Silicon Roundabout” - demonstrate that a singular business success story (around which the hub was essentially created) whilst attracting new entrants fail to create truly synergistic commercial relationships. Instead such tech-districts become populated by conventional firms which either seek to appear “tech-trendy” or who have simply negotiated a cheap per square foot rental rate, filling the occupational void of over-capacity, in the absence of suitable corollary firms.

There is an undoubted truth to this, given that when compared to the American model, funding comes not from individual billionaires, multi-millions or similarly funded syndicates who are able to swallow the often lengthy overhead losses of incurred by such premises, but from from far more stringent domestic funders: whether 'Boot-Strap', (small-time) 'Business Angels', fixed-income lenders or other traditional sources.

This fundamental US-UK difference engenders very different start-up and broader business environments and so consequentially a direct impact upon a founder's everyday outlook. This best illustrated through the often very real stereo-type of verbose American vs cautious Brit.

[NB a relatively recent FT column highlighted the perversity of such an optimistic, often ungrounded attitude with innate associated 'permission' to fail, in the mass gathering to celebrate of failure! Of course it may well be the case that at a higher level, the backers of that business simply sought to transfer the tangible results of that failed business into another venture for their own gain].

Hence the caricatures of US vs UK entrepreneurs abound, the latter very probably seen lacking “get-up and go”. Yet this is clearly not the case, especially amongst the well educated, monied and connected who seek to build their own dynasties and not simply rely upon parental wealth, and likewise amongst 2^nd/3^rd generation immigrants who, propelled by admiration for their own parents efforts and achievement, likewise feel almost obliged to succeed. Beyond these two groups are the sons and daughters of generational business families – a portion of the “UK Mittelstand” which whilst comfortable also works hard to be so – who parents were perhaps personified by Fred Moffat above.

But no doubt, because Britain is an innately different society – with a different establishment construct – it appears less cohesive than the USA, but these 3 very different entrepreneurial groups share a more subtle British version of “Can Do” enthusiasm.

If Fred Moffat reflected the parental generation, then in a different way Guy Martin reflects their generation through his charming, colourful yet also importantly very modest, unassuming but extremely ambitious manner. His ambition seemingly wholly self-directed (ie performing for himself) not akin to the all too common negative competitive streak of rivalry.

In a period when Britain requires industrial impetus, technical fascination and commercial progress since 2011 Guy Martin has been publicly and perfectly moulded as the poster-boy given his friendly persona and characterful “mutton-chop” whiskers.

Born at the time 'The Gaffer' was broadcast, he originates from the Lincolnshire town and port of Grimsby, the son of a HGV mechanical fitter and amateur competition motorcyclist, Martin (as with his brother) followed directly in his father's footsteps, becoming known for his semi-professional motorcycling prowess (such as the Isle of Man TT) and critically his fascination and enthusiasm for vehicles and machinery. (To this end he appears a modern spiritual successor to Yorkshire's Fred Dibnah, though far more closely related to the Victorian / Edwardian era).

His public persona was one created so as to connect modern Britain with the somewhat forgotten legacy and pride of yesteryear's heavy engineering (as directly illustrated by Dibnah), through the affiliation with 'sexy' and technically absorbing performance motorcycles; which themselves tend to be icons of advanced engineering.

This achieved by initially introducing him (and his friend) to the mass public through the TV screen in the recreation of yesteryear manufacturing techniques for the rebuild of an aged canal boat (see 'the Boat That Guy Built'); thereafter public attention drawn to his previous and ongoing IoM TT / Ulster GP / NW200 racing victories and performances; and thereafter the TV shows: “How Britain Worked” looking at various bygone engineering/construction techniques, thereafter “Passion For Life” and “Spitfire”, “Speed with Guy Martin” and latterly “Our Guy In India”.

The pertinent point, is that even though a TV celebrity - and so obviously managed by others as such - to the broad masses, and no doubt to himself, he seems “his own man” with “his own mind”. Combining engineering empathy and talent with realistic pragmatism, directed enthusiasm and stubborn tenacity.

Importantly, he has been effectively promoted as the 'celebrity everyman'; by which the very spotlight of fame, recognition and reward has been re-directed; away from the 'high celebrity' of film stars, pop singers and even footballers and towards the everyday world which the notion “average lad” occupies.

The point is that even though, as a professional motorcycle racer and TV star, his actual life and personal experiences are wholly removed from those of a typical HGV-fitter, the partially media-manufactured Guy Martin is himself a product of “high value media manufacturing”, so as to enthuse broad swathes of the less academically inclined younger male and female populace.

It is this innate persona- itself very real even if somewhat 'TV franchised' - then emanates and reflects Britain's much needed “Can Do” spirit.

Multi-Aspect Advanced Engineering:

The Socio-Economic Context...

Since the pace of progress seen by the “white-heat of technology” in the 1950s (ie computing, nuclear and space-travel) the term “advanced engineering” itself has become somewhat of an anathema to the general public as engineering and manufacturing largely disappeared from the national radar.

Sixty years ago people could visibly view the pace of progress as jet engines replaced internal combustion engines and propellers on airliners, and computers in large organisations were slowly adopted to replace a previous generation punch-card machines for calculation purposes. Progress transformed industries more so than lives directly and so the experience of the everyday for most appeared to alter at analogue pace, almost as if passing years were akin to the sweeping hands of the clock. Moreover, there was a real tangibility to much of the surrounding world, given the overtly practical and naturalistic mindsets and capabilities of the British population whereby fathers of whichever 'class' typically had a practical bent handed down by their own fathers, by trade or self education. Likewise for women in the handicrafts, from general clothes repair and knitting to self-creation or adaption of house-hold items (curtains, table-clothes etc) to the bygone craft of artistic hand-stitching.

Thus most of the British population, across the class divides, had some form of practical skill, and with that an appreciation (at what ever level) for the manufactured goods which surrounded them, from sewing machine to the automobile.

However, as increasingly specialist scientific and technical disciplines grew so that direct tangibility became ever more distant. The introduction of unfathomable computers in offices, the digital calculator in 'basic' and 'scientific' guises and the digital watch and effectively overlaid a new realm of technological existence by the early 1970s, such 'futurism' abetted by modernist and space-age inspired environments, creating an exciting leap into a little understood but 'magical' future which held great sway with a western mass populace during the then economic down-turn.

Yet unlike the inspiration for the original (post WW1) 'Futurists' who deified the social power of understandable mechanics (ie cars, planes, factories etc), 'digital futurism' was far less comprehensible to the masses. Moving from the crystal-pulse age and into the contemporary digital age has resulted in the broad population becoming entranced yet ignorant of technology; in effect its all to foreign clients.

Given its apparent “high-science” incomprehensibility to the average westerner, itself the result of 'digi-tech's' migration to Japan and later S.Korea relative to their own economic growth templates, unsurprisingly western social focus was gradually drawn away from science and technology, whereas Japanese and S.Korean populations became increasingly absorbed

As is well recognised, instead western orientation was toward those activities seen as 'up-stream' and closer to the 'wealth source' itself, in the service-sector arenas of finance, retail, property development, IT systems, and a wide spectrum of more human-centric 'people-soft' general services from private security to ever more notionally accredited 'health professionals'.

And given an increasingly media and information led societal existence, with a concomitant self-fulfilling high profile and so impact, even those broad range of everyday general services – the true economic stabilisers of the national economy - have for the most part been very much over-shadowed by an out of proportionate social focus on those 'culture industries'.

It must be recognised that those 'culture industries' (TV, film, theatre, advertising, video games and internet-based) themselves typically operate with a comparatively high-cost base which is heavily amortised over domestic and export markets, and given the “created value” from mass audiences view themselves as positioned high up the value-curve; even heavily reliant upon the mid and low order domestic and foreign digital technology makers. The irony today being that so much media programming has been created that even those once considered mundane everyday commercial activities, from truck driving to the junk-trade, have been given glossy TV make-overs and fictional excitement.

By the 1990s much of that which is considered 'digital engineering' quickly followed the mechanical route to lower cost production regions, with only some of those activities seen as most important to the creative process retained domestically. These being the 'high-end' of vision and audio modelling, mixing and compilation.

Thus, for all the good work of the previously mentioned Technical Strategy Board, and its associated efforts in boosting next-generation technologies, in actuality more industrial capability may have been potentially lost by the UK than is recognised - beyond the usual cries about lost “heavy-industry” and “light engineering” - compared to the obvious leading lights of Germany, Japan and S.Korea.

So inevitably for the UK, the ever broadening, ever re-morphing arenas that might be termed 'advanced engineering' became increasingly distant, and so hidden, discipline(s) to the vast majority of British people. With likewise seemingly a forever smaller proportion of ever growing the post-graduate populace educated in specific and conjoined 'advanced engineering' disciplines.

This reality had become recognised by seniors in industry and academia some time ago, salt metaphorically rubbed into the British wound as paradoxically, emergent words and phrases such as 'cyber' to 'nano' became increasingly engrained in everyday usage with little true understanding, yet giving an outward impression that swathes of modern people are tech-literate, when obviously not so.

The Academic and Commercial Context...

It is little wonder then that seemingly of the various dedicated Technology Parks set up in the mould of the original Cambridge model have gestated and incubated so few truly advanced, high-value enterprises. Instead such locales themselves housing those 'under-formed' and 'over-formed' occupants which sit either side of the technology development “Valley of Death” (to requote the Technology Strategy Board's metaphor). Either so small as to still be very exploratory and so typically academically/governmentally / externally funded, or conversely, the research-development function of an established large company, often drawn by advantageous leasehold rates and periods.

Furthermore, in need of occupants to furnish income and appear the hive of activity intended, often what may be termed as conventional SMEs will take up residence. Thus Technology Parks are themselves caught between original local and central government high ideals and the reality of the property marketplace.

Though typically mistakenly associated with Cambridge Technology Park, the poster-child of UK high-tech enterprise that is ARM Holdings plc actually originated from and is still head-quartered in the Peterhouse Technology Park, also obviously in Cambridge.

The difference between the early days of ARM and other latter incubated ventures across town, was that ARM (Advanced RISC Machines) was effectively under the wing of the very well funded Apple Computer (now Apple Inc) and its then partner Acorn Computers. Hence it was a combination of continued strong funding from above (as part of a strategy jigsaw ) and what appears an “in perpetuity” low cost residence agreement with Peterhouse College which supported ARM's birth, growth and continued success.

Given far harsher commercial realities faced by most, such 'examplar' instances are invariably far more the exception than the rule in Britain for very good reason, with the more exposed commercial climate of the typical Technology Park apparently unable to assist what to date may have been credible new research enterprises. Consequentially, and in stark contrast, it is no surprise then that for the vast majority of newly formed advanced technology companies without such protective 'harbour walls' and 'constant liquidity levels' that to date failure has been the norm.

Instead, in Britain far more expectation, and indeed reliance, has been sought from those blue-chip players in well established sectors.

Looking forward from the TSB's findings it will continue to be the likes of Automotive, Aerospace, Computing and Software, Optical, Pharmaceutical and Chemicals which are financially strong enough, able to provide protective environments and obviously have the incentive to drive forward UK innovation, including 'advanced engineering' and 'high value manufacturing'.

Yet even these seemingly structurally strong firms face challenges, perhaps most notably a national education system which invariably to date proportionately reduced focus upon innovation, engineering and manufacturing. Thus in the modern era there has been a dearth of previously well honed new young entrants (at 16+, 18+ and even 21+) for those available research and development environments, whether academic or corporate, which themselves gradually experienced declined investment levels as the prime investment monies sought greater near guaranteed returns through the consumer and business boom of the 1990s and 2000s based upon the commercialisation and 'monetisation' of previous research work; especially so in IT.

[NB perhaps the only environment which did not suffer, with the financial means and environmental stability, was Silicon Valley, which itself went from strength to strength].

Nevertheless, British blue-chips have sought to maintain and eye on tomorrow, by either working closely with academia (from individual PhD projects to the internal 'commercial bridging' functions within universities. Examples being the likes of:

Birmingham University's 'Advanced Manufacturing' Centre :

Competencies...

- Computer Aided Engineering

- Laser Processing

- Intelligent Robotics

- Micro-Engineering

- Nano-Technology

- Non-Conventional Machining

Birmingham University is one of the TSB's 'Catapult Centres' with the AMC specialising in material removal processes, whilst the Metallurgy and Materials Centre, and Chemical Engineering Centre promote 'additive' materials processes. The Manufacturing Technology Centre, a dedicated site acting as a prime 'industry bridge' is located at the new Ansty (Technology) Park in Coventry.

[NB having recognised the commercial necessity of mixed-use business parks Ansty Park has welcomed in an administrative function of Sainsbury's supermarkets and latter stage office buildings].

Warwick University's Innovative Manufacturing and Advanced Materials Centre :

Projects...

- High Value Manufacturing

- National Automotive Innovation Campus

- High Value / Low Eco Impact Manufacturing

- Bio-Tech Manufacturing

Warwick likewise acts as a 'Catapult Centre' for the TSB.

Fortunate then that it is often the older industrial realms, those central to economic development over the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries (ie automotive, aeronautical, construction) which have provided an engineering continuity and so, in comparison with digi-tech, enabled a far stronger societal connection and thus public appreciation for conventional engineering, which in turn has links to aspects of 'advanced engineering': across materials, construction, and propulsion.

Parts 1 and 2 of this web-log illustrated those 'leading lights' that help to make up “UK plc”, such as Rolls-Royce plc, BAE plc, Ricardo plc, their respective plethoras of domestic supply-chain firms, the might of motor-sport engineering and niche vehicle producers, aswell as those new ventures which have gained increased exposure through TSB funding.

Hence, though it has undoubtedly lost ground in specific disciplines to those more techno-centric economies elsewhere, and has seen some of its domestic sectors (eg locomotive and carriage building) effectively superceded by foreign firms (ie Hitachi and Bombardier), nonetheless Britain quite obviously still retains a powerful and highly competence engineering base. Indeed it has expanding in specific sectors such as eco-mega-tower architecture (ie Foster + Partners), and though far less visible the realm of domestic habitation should also be recognised for its 'leapfrog' eco examples.

[NB However, generally the UK has been far slower to advance than the likes of Germany or Scandanavia. This technical drag because of the triple forces of: a) failed examples of past progress (ie pre-fabricated concrete towers), b) British cultural predeliction for 'olde worlde' styles and methods, but critically c) the very economic model for popular housing itself endemically “value-laden” in materials and labour of 'the trade'].

The Technical Context...

An overtly broad yet 'catch-all' summary of those individual and combined disciplines which comprise the expanding world of “advanced engineering” is much needed; so as to provide a more rounded appreciation.

For the duration of this weblog the accompanying graphic (return / scroll-up to top) provides an overview. The lower left quandrant of the Union Flag backdrop presents a 'snap-shot' diagram.

The prime historical individual technology disciplines of Mechanical Systems, Electronic Systems, Control Systems and Computer Systems are shown wholly overlapped in Venn Diagram style. This overlap used to illustrate the central idea of broad 'Mechatronics'. Likewise there are intermediary overlaps between these categories which may be viewed as distinct mutual junctures. These being respectively: Electro-Mechanics, Control Electronics, Digital Control Systems and Mechanical CAD.

A selection of those commercial sectors which deploy these systems are shown at the circumference of the roundel, including: Materials (Handling and Processing), Manufacturing, for sectors such as Automotive, Aerospace, Defense, Medical etc. Not shown is Logistics and Distribution, which with applications such as the identity-scanning QR Codes, has itself been a prime driver of intelligent control systems.

Though the diagram is itself of older style and content, it was specifically chosen by investment-auto-motives as an apt visual vehicle to demonstrate how the control systems previously researched, developed and extolled within the innards of business will slowly but practicably become the systemic enablers behind “the internet of things”.

[NB Albeit with undoubted experiences of failed specific technology lifetimes (ie convenience vs complexity vs cost vs competition: akin to Betamax vs VHS video wars, or indeed decline of Kodak vs numerous phone-camaras and dedicated digital SLR camaras)].

Two obvious examples to date being:

a) the redeployment of QR code graphics squares initially from Toyota's inventory management of car-parts to its use as information short-cut in a 'virtually enhanced', smart-phone based digital world.

b) the potential of electronic cart guidance systems transplanted from factory-floor to central urban districts for the scheduling and routing of short-hop “driverless personal pods”.

Whilst the control systems are ostensibly invisible, very visible of course are, and will be, the objects (and object assisted services) directly experienced by people.

Just as seen with the evolution and periodic re-invention of the car (- from Benz prototype to Panhard packaging, to Ford Model T re-confuration and use, to original Mini efficiency, to latterly dedicated eco BMW i3), so obviously the very physicality of the objects themselves will continually progress dependent upon needs, wants and desires; these undoubtedly in part prompted by the very evolution of broader interacting control systems.

With the advent of increased urbanisation and MegaCities, objects will be designed to befit such as world, and as such, we could well see today's standard vehicle having reached its “capability pinnacle”, with instead the future demanding greater convergence of specific functional requirements.

Such as that of small, lightweight zero emissions EV “Buggy” for the inner-city, Hybrid ICE-EV for longer travel across suburbs and possibly even return of the ICE-only Luxury Grand Tourer for inter-city and rural usage; thus returning the car to its ostensibly the “separate species” of the Edwardian age.

Each of these differing types would require alternative 'packaging', different materials, requisite propulsion systems and dedicated manufacturing methods. Such an outcome would then theoretically provide for greater efficiency within a nation's personal transport system, whereby “the sum of the parts are greater than the whole”.

When such 'visioneering' is applied to all forms of human activity – as seen starting by the very human-centric innovation of health monitoring 'smart-wear' – so it appears that the 20^th century engineered world will be required to become re-engineered, so as to befit the 'intelligent' systems inter-dependently monitoring and interacting the so termed 'advanced' regions of the world of the 21^st century.

At a time-point in socio-economic history when the hippy ideology of “Gaia” Mother Earth juxtaposes and inter-relates with the “World Systems” ideology born by academia, much of the apparently unsustainable “given norm” is ripe for innovation, via recycling, retro-fitment or indeed phased whole-scale re-invention.

As with the evolution of long established engineering realms, Britain should obviously seek to be a leading global light in this endeavour, and so the role of 'advanced engineering' has perhaps at last, after 50 years cast into the shadows, become recognised for its innate importance as critical driver of productivity and wealth creation.

Technology meets Arts+Crafts:

Technical innovation has typically been reached through application of logic and scientific methods, inter-disciplinary learning and optimal application.

However, whilst usually developed for the purposes of pure function, such achievements both as breakthroughs and as improved enablers have for much of mankind's time-line often been embued with complimentary artistry.

This perhaps best illustrated by highly symbolic weaponry, such as (in chronological order) the sword, the suit of armour, the canon and the gun (from early flint-locks to paired side-by-side shot-guns) and even onto the graphical embellishment of bomber and fighter fuselages (from squadron related symbolism to the Vargas 'Pin-Up' Girls seen in WW2). [These latterly redeployed commercially by Virgin Atlantic on planes and Brietling Watches in store displays, for positive connetation].

The early established gun-makers thereafter sought to differentiate and raise the value of their products via the application of engraving on the barrel(s) and especially upon mechanism side-plates, with also on occasion, in addition to the usual light-relief carved pattern for grip on the stock, the use of woodwork marquetry derived from the separate lineage of furniture / cabinet-making. Today this match of precision engineering and artistic crafts undertaken by British gunsmiths such as James Purdy and Sons, Westley Richards, Boss and Co , William and Son, William Evans, J. Rigby and Co, Watson Bros, Ray Ward, Anderson Wheeler and Holland and Holland.

As regards the art of marquetry, wherein different wood veneers are placed stylistically within the shallow recess of a wooden or even metal item – from minute keep-sake boxes through to larger decorative dedicated storage pieces through to application on bespoke furniture, the most famous contemporary British proponent is David Linley furniture, fittings and accoutrement. But there are many other lesser recognised names who maintain this millennial-old practice

As for the main body of furniture-making, whilst legendary names such as Thomas Chippendale obviously still prevail as setting a standard, today a plethora of British furniture-makers working in wood exist countrywide, each using varying degrees of labour intensiveness depending upon construction type and level of ornamentation, whether carving, marquetry and fabric for seat coverings. Names such as Murfin Ltd, Corwell, Bristows, Browns (of West Wycombe), Iain James, REH Kennedy, Touchwood UK, Chris Sharp Cabinets, Arther Brett, and Revival Beds represent a mix of enterprises typically offering period specific pieces and sets. Whilst invariably there are new names originating from universities and small workshops who offer more eclectically styles items.

In addition, metal(s) based furniture has had lesser distinction, but since the 'industrial post-modernism' influence of the 1980s to date, has gained greater profile. The trend for up-cycling metal cabinets and furniture originally made for, or indeed commissioned by government and social institutions as re-contextualised hi-style items in retail premises and bars / restaurants and latterly filtering down to trendy household interiors has created a relative new and expanding consumer market which in turn has encouraged metals-orientated crafts-people.

Whilst undoubtedly age-old, the arena of ceramics has, albeit slowly, progressed far beyond the entrenched antique idioms of 'crude' rural earthenware to 'perfect' Sevres bone china. Since the 1960s the increasing demands for high-performance “shatter-proof” durability by restaurants has progressed materials science. Whilst as hand-made, crafted high value 'art', the modern UK renaissance has been led by the artist Grayson Perry. (His surface work seeks to inform and provoke by intellectually juxtaposing overtly strong social themes and messages of modern-times, themselves overlaid onto the fragile substrate). In the more traditional manner there seems a strong amateur base of hobby potters often members of associated bodies. Whilst in direct contrast, away from 'high art' and toward the arenas of medium and mass-market production and commerce, company names like Wedgewood, Royal Doulton, Royal Worcester continue (though periodically re-capitalised reletive to the economic cycle) whilst Moorcroft, Poole and latterly Portmeirion and Bridgewater are variously renowned and maintain classic and house styles.

Elsewhere, the once high-held notion of “designer” truly indicated uniquely designer-made, yet since the 1960s onward, because of the power of the brand to intimate lifestyle, there has been a continual commercial blurring of boundaries to satisfy ever broader consumer aspirations allied with corporate need for margins and earnings growth. 'Designer' branding became exploited to create ever more nuanced stratas of price, quality, style and so appeal. The concept of mass vs medium vs niche quality and price bands had been with class-bound British society since the early 1800s, but it was not until the the disposable income and cultural sensitivities of post WW2 baby-boomers had come of age in the 1960s that UK commerce (having learned from the US boom) was able to create new pyscho-sociological layers so creating vertical stratification on top of the previous horizontal stratas, so generating a matrix effect for consumer society, this matrix invariably with its own aspirant consumer ladder. From that '60s start-point - and icons such as Terence Conran's pared-back, high-brow Scandi-Modernist inspired domesticity - that matrix grew into an ever greater consumer patchwork. Today's plethera of 'designer' applications well exemplified by the likes of (Irish born) Orla Keily, spanning originally from trendy hats onto handbags and onto kitchen-ware and even special edition Citroen cars.

However, the creativity and care of the seemingly long-lost designer-maker is still very much alive in what appear farther, less immediate, corners of consumer consciousness. Unsurprisingly, given the necessarily lengthy handwork time-scales involved and the often rare or high cost materials employed, such designer-makers invariably require premium prices.

Yet whilst channels to teach and promote such next generation individuals do exist, by way of dedicated Art Schools (eg RCA, 'Chelsea', the Princes School of Traditional Arts and other regional centres), specific start-up funding schemes (national Arts Councils), and temporary high profile exhibition space (from the dedicated Design Business Centre to Fortnum and Mason's and nationally elsewhere), such channels appear somewhat limited, often rarefied, and unsurprisingly London-centric. Encouragingly though counter-balances have emerged, such as possible 'new designer-makers' exhibition space in Harvey Nichols' stores in Edinburgh, Leeds, Manchester and Bristol, self-sponsored 'artists districts' necessarily migrating to cities beyond London for cost reasons, and from the local authority perspective the use of previously occupied space turned into gallery space to promote local light industry.

Most pronounced though, in the modern consumerist era is of course fashion apparel. And it is here where artistry and craftsmanship reigns supreme, given the history of clothing and accessories as social signifiers. More than elsewhere the designer label has become nigh-on ubiquitous, with the end result (itself ironic paradox) that label and product stratification and associated heirachies have arisen. From true one-off sky-high priced couture pieces born from 'cost-plus' pricing, to fashion sector business analysts' own plotting of pyramidial trickle-down business models for ever increased volumes of supposedly 'limited edition' ranges, through to high-street interpretations. The stratification eventually feeding through to the intended ironically titled “thrift shop collections” by a greater number of cash-poor, young “fashion self-directors”.

[NB The ideology of populist 'trash culture' itself recycled far upward into the accessories of designer brands, such as Moschino's 'McDonald's handbag'; so creating the supposedly intellectual irony of apparent “high-cost, throw-away”, itself 'artistically' reflective of the speedy turnover in the world of high fashion. This followed by Anya Hindmarsh's various bags referencing iconic FMCG packaging themes. Such creatives possibly thinking they are following in the hallowed footsteps of Andy Warhol and demonstrating oh so post-modern artistic awarenes].

This said, as seen in the downturn of the late '70s and early '80s, it has often been the cash-poor, but time and creativity rich, sections of society who have at critical times made greatest impact, by creating new avenues in fashion philosophy and themes.

In the UK and across the world, from apparently scantly resource beginnings, the name Paul Smith has become revered given its original evocation for classical tailoring with a twist. And whilst the Smith name has been periodically applied across various consumer spheres, from run-out specials of the original Mini to now Smith 'curated' furniture collections, the founder still holds tight control over product and shop design integrity.

Furthermore, those who do not to enter the obvious fashion industry – itself the clothing sector renamed for glamour – may well enter the theatrical, operatic, ballet or dance worlds. Herein the production dedicated costumes created must not only have visually impact, obviously befitting the character, but must also be wholly functional regards physical exertion, performance after performance, so requiring perhaps even greater quality than that of a couture piece.

Credible artistic and well crafted items undoubted deserve far more respect than recognised in the mainstream, precisely because for so long they have existed in a rarefied atmosphere.

So unfortunately whilst high end apparel has been elevated to that of almost mythical high standing, outside the high fashion arena and beyond more purist arts worlds, “arts and crafts” have become rather an anathema for the vast majority of the population. Unsurprising, since that mainstream consumer has had little opportunity to reach into arts and crafts for access and cost reasons, given the massive sway of mass produced goods which enabled affordability from the mid-point of the British industrial revolution right up until the global export drive of EM regions in the mid 1990s onward.

Lastly, keeping with textiles, there appears to have been a revival of things fabric. Possibly led (as before) by the likes of Grayson Perry, but with many younger participants for whom the austrity years have promoted “make do and mend” attitudes, which in turn leads to textiles orientated self-creation. Perry's own fabric work is itself a modern take on traditional methods, created and manufactured via CAD-CAM facilities (laptop, graphics software and downloaded to industrial loom). So as to provide new era tapestries for wall hanging which typically offer social commentary - possibly seeking to replace the horror of bland, colour coordinated 'accessory' pictures (the abhorance of anyone of creative spirit) and very possibly to supersede (or at least mask) the domestic dominance of wall mounted flat-screens.

This interestingly not for the first time in a consumerist led, materialistic, commercialised and mass manufacture world.

Social and design histories permanently retell the story of William Morris, who under the guise of socialism apparently sought to bring arts and crafts awareness to the masses. Yet interestingly also recognised optimum profitability came not from the poor masses but from the bulging purses of left-leaning upper-class, and middle-class liberals; themselves in sizeable numbers at the end of the commercially and industrial vibrant 19^th century.

In this regard, as a supposed social progressive, his was a failed effort to revolutionise the mass-market's mind away from “cheap tat” with little aesthetic merit, and toward less ornate but higher quality hand and semi hand-crafted items. However, a major commercial success given the ferver and spending power of his well targeted and conquered upmarket audience.

The British middle-class of course grew immeasurably during the 20^th century, at least by way of population numbers and earnings power, and somewhat by artistic understanding given the proclivity for suburban idealism. This itself originally under-pinned by the William Morris ethos and translated by Ebinezer Howard's proto-typical Garden Cities movement, which in turn formed the idealised template for the suburbs.

But today, as a result of eroded British 'grande narratives', increased cultural diversity through immigration (cultural pros and cons), an 'apartheid' educational system regards science and humanities, academia and vocational, when viewed in context of post industrial-boom decline with thereafter post credit-boom decline, it seems that the once high ideals of Arts and Crafts are largely lost. Lost not just more obviously to the high volume mass market, but worryingly, also lost to the much culturally diminished, more socially immobile middle-class.

The social application of “Arts and Crafts” in the 21^st century, is perhaps more important than ever before. An over-used phrase but all too true. If honed properly it offers an up-lifting socio-economic philosophy, something critically for the national psyche and overall well-being, avoiding the increasing alienation of modern life. And as educated consumers, willing to purchase not today's immediate but empty off-the-peg 'life-styles', but the possibility of 'life-enhancing' or 'life-enriching' consumer choices; choices made from improved learning and discernment.

To this end, Britain's manufacturing future – itself centred around 'High Value Manufacturing' – should be directed at coalescing the technologies (3D, 'augmented-reality' and otherwise) which provide 'eco' and 'cyber' advancement together with a much improved mass appreciation for the intrinsically valuable application of Arts and Crafts.

Concise Conclusion -

Technology and Craftsmanship have historically been polar opposites. Tomorrow they should become entwined bed-fellows if Britain wishes to nurture a tenable and long-lasting national economic template. One better supported and re-balanced by a marriage of capital-goods intensive manufacturing and product enhancing human contribution.

To Follow (Part 5) -

An extended conclusion which captures the pertinent points of investment-auto-motive's research, observations, analysis and emergent reasoning.       

Industry Practice – UK Manufacturing – Renaissance and Revolution: 2015+ (Part 3)

The third installment of this specific web-log was to expand upon four of the prime topics necessary to underpin an expansion of the nation's High Value Manufacturing ambition so as to provide future economic traction. At managerial, staffing, technical and societal (demand) levels, these consist of:

- Business “Nounce”

- “Can Do” Enthusiasm

- Multi-Aspect Advanced Engineering

- Technology + Arts-Crafts

These overtly simplified pillars applied to both 'Renaissance' and 'Revolution' applications across products and services.

However, this expanded description is momentarily postponed, and is to follow in Part 4.

Instead, recent events dictates that this Part 3 be intermediate general commentary, given still existent shudders about the Eurozone's future, about need for dispassionate observation about Britain's (and indeed much of the West's) very real human productivity dilemma, the reactive requirement for very socially attuned “Futurism” propaganda from government, and the need to re-emphasise the importance of continuing present heavy-handed broad fiscal and monetary policies.

The 'Mid-Way' Recovery Under Threat -

Economic indicators for the UK have and continue to point to slow but ongoing recovery, a process which itself was always set to be somewhat fluctuating given the prevailing negative external forces which continue to affect domestic affairs.

Examples such as: the decline of the € reducing repatriated income, possibility of Greek Euro-zone Exit given the 'locked-horns' reality between Syriza and the Troica, more remote possibility of “Latin Contagion” (reduced by virtue of a deflated $ and Spanish growth), and any slow-down of the US and similarly in China.

Although an austerity averse left-leaning ideology has gained mass appeal – with Neo-Marxism even gaining popularity in Britain amongst the disaffected - any substantial decrease in the effort to reduce UK structural debt (though a painful process) would see the ratings agencies and in-house investment analysts raise the country's risk profile markedly with a subsequent rise in the cost of what is wholly critical capital; the capital required to re-build Britain physically and socio-economically.

It must be recognised that for all the rhetoric of emergent 'New Marxist' ideologies amongst people and politicos. Karl Marx himself was no 'common man'. Instead a wandering intellectual from a wealthy Prussian family, who in reality lived very, very far from the squalor of 19^th century factory towns he apparently represented. Instead, amongst the wealthiest merchants, bankers, intellectuals and artists of Hampstead and Highgate, North London. In cold retrospect, 'champagne socialism' at best, and at worst a self-serving action to protect and expand personal wealth under any communist / socialist ideology and system which was emerging and prompting the 19^th century poor to rise and revolt.

Then, as now, it must be understood that a usury based monetary system is not simply a capitalist phenomenon. It has been the less well recognised yet predominant basis for many socialist and even communism regimes, typically operating at the state industry level. Whichever the 'ism', the basic methodology of a risk-assessed lending is “priced” in addition to expectant inflationary / deflationary effects caused by supply-demand dynamics. Thus aside from the 'greater shared risk' between lender and borrower of Sharia finance approaches (which itself has pros and cons), ultimately the cost of lending capital is the foremost fundamental economic reality.

To this end, the promotion to the masses of any truly alternative socio-economic ideology, then as now, is no more than false promise, and ostensibly denies the individual (and so a nation's peoples en mass) the right to economic input and reward.

Today, across portions of the 'real world' – a place wherein the average person has little time to ponder ideology - the main threat to future economic stability is the combination of slow economic growth versus high national debt levels. Such economic tardiness now destabilised yet further by the introduction of problem inducing popular politics.

Importantly, investment-auto-motives poses the question as to whether the supposed 'independence' offered by the leaders of the Syriza party will in fact be historically viewed as the first step towards Sarkozy's long held idea of a 'Club Med' economic bloc; to include all countries with a Mediterranean coastline.

This would not only break the long cherished Eurozone project, but even if seemingly successful - after having been presented as for the gain of mankind uniting Christians, Jews and Muslims - the likelihood is that latterly after any inevitable substantial economic shock, even with the apparent economic entwinement, blame will be asserted. Thereafter, Judeo-Christian vs Muslim ranks respectively closed and truly physical historic warfare re-asserted. Critically, not the kind of largely media driven psychological cyber-war seen by 'the war on terrorism', but a fully fledged pan European and pan African war.

To this end, investment-auto-motives suggests that Syriza not be easily led and tempted by any interceding others offering new 'promised lands', and instead agree a realistic solution within the Euro-zone.

Instead of the overly simplified radical solutions, the sensible Mid-Way economic path necessarily requiring Stoicism should be maintained by all.

The left-leaning Keynesian QE programmes boosting investor and business confidence have been seen to take effect in the USA and UK, with trickle-through shown in reduced unemployment. Equally, right-leaning focus must continue to be applied to over-burdensome debt levels, which themselves rob the socio-economic gains of future growth; such monies used to pay heavy debts instead of being directed toward people's income and spending.

Hence, 'leftist' inspired QE and 'rightist' approved austerity means that Britain (and elsewhere) continues along the sensible mid-path of a mixed-market economy, even if macro circumstances dictate that it cannot be as subtly managed as experienced in the past, and that happy endings come later rather than sooner.

Need for a “Futurist” UK National Mindset -

Yet for a full eventual rebound, the very body of the UK itself – business, politics and the mass populace - must engender a broad progressive mentality which promotes a future-forward stance.

Though subtle 'perceptional attunement' has long been played-out through the mass media channels, there is need for 'expectational re-attunement' of the masses through very much more more obvious, and less “snide” (to paraphrase Russell Brand) 'Public Information' coverage.

[NB Many of the younger generation are very informed and aware (“street-wise”) when it comes to what was once seen as subtle perceptional re-alignment. For example, the BBC TV soap-opera EastEnders used the word 'nuclear' used in a pejorative sense after the Japanese reactor disaster...as in “he went nuclear on me”, and the now reduced anti-Islam tone of mass-media, seen more recently in EastEnders by the introduction of head-scarfed Muslim characters; so as to try and draw back-in very much alienated British Muslims].

However, in such an age of authoritarian awareness, the construction of any socially positive propaganda, will be rife with complexity, with today even the 'social currency' of the once powerful retro-inspired “Keep Calm and Carry On” arguably depleted given its trivialised uses.

Nonetheless, the 'art of the possible' should be explored within the bounds of today's zeitgeist. .

The prime problem is that so many people of all notional classes feeling betrayed by 'greedy capitalism' and the devastating socio-economic effects of the 2008 collapse. Furthermore, this large percentage of the population as a central group excludes those who were economically marginalised long before the 2008 crash.

However, the problem is exacerbated when even those who are sensible, middle-aged and well educated themselves are abjectly alienated via the socio-economic injustice of employment denial, the fall into poverty and induced social exclusion and isolation (by design or otherwise), especially so when over a long period. It seems that for many 'life' itself simply becomes 'the struggle for empty existence', the causes and effects inevitably leading to an absolute distrust of of all things formerly trusted and ultimately society's very construct. This far more apparent than recognised by mainstream (“comfortably-off”) politicians and media.

This perception now prevailing massively amongst a disaffected, even elements of the well educated youth. But more typically, a sub-set ranging from the young-folk of ex-mining and industrial regions (often 3^rd generation unemployed), to generations of the educationally deprived in increasingly ghetto-like inner-city districts (whether black, white or other). Hence the rise of youth gangs – criminal or not - for self-identity and mutual support given what they see as the falsity and remoteness of that which is typically construed as “sugar-sprinkled” Britishness.

Harsh reality for many are the economic stresses which create yet further family and group fragmentation, and so further social issues. Immediate environments deny the possibility to mentally escape, so as to think rationally and logically, instead the usual cycle of immediate gratification sought. So inevitably created the backdrop into which a new era of class based 'them and us' politics has become the norm.

The ability to create such a “futurist” national mindset then, whilst undoubtedly achievable amongst the newer, ambitious and upwardly mobile immigrant communities, will be an immensely hard task to accomplish amongst even the remaining squeezed middle-classes of the indigenous populace. Many had their once comfortable reality shattered either recently or long ago, with the younger generation born into a cynically enlightened era.

Without a 'Futurist Manifesto' -

However, without the realistic implementation of such a future-facing initiative, collectivising the hearts and minds of the populace, it seems all to likely that Britain will increasingly become a laggard nation.

Smaller portions of its educated and truly productive population are relied upon to try and prop-up large swathes of the 'forgotten', long unproductive people, whilst a “mutated middle” increasingly fends for itself.

As highlighted at Davos, signs are that ramifications of increasingly capable technology and the proclivity to out-source and “off-shore” elsewhere (regions where labour costs still sit far below UK levels) may well see portions of the conventional middle-class mutate, as lower-cost, highly productive IT continues its substitution of the administrative and formulaic tasks once undertaken by large swathes of 20^th century middle-class staff, possibly even middle managers depending upon sector and skill set.

Under this scenario it is possible to see a return of a broad Luddite faction, with the machines themselves ironically protected by a swelled number of human security people, who in time would be supplanted by cheaper automated (self)defence machinery. The spiralling dystopian outcome of the common people verses the machines (which protect the wealth and power of a small sliver of human technocrats) easily recognised.

Thus, whilst this may still presently appear long-off science-fiction fantasy, without a new national UK Vision formulated and publicised, the likelihood is that such a small portion of the population in high-grade productivity (blue and white collar) could not support or would not be willing to support the 'forgotten people', whilst the much degraded middle-classes not only experience immense friction amongst themselves when seeking any available incomes, but could indeed (once again) “rage against the machine” that seemingly binds them.

Under such a scenario the UK would be forced to become a virtual Banana Republic, printing ever more money to continually deflate the Pound, to provide the internal illusion of inflationary growth so as to artificially support its people, and to hopefully provide an ever-lasting FX boost to its prime “very high value” global exports.

Though unrecognised by most, and unsurprisingly unstated by any informed long-view politicians, this outcome is a very real possibility, especially as the West ages faster than the rest of the world, and if unable to attract enough truly highly educated young immigrants.

[NB Though of course many intelligent foreign young will come to the UK for educational purposes, many may indeed see greater opportunity in returning to homeland or other EM countries to deploy their skills in productive and expanding economies. Retaining them in the UK will be key].

Herein given UK and European woes, the obvious and all to over-used case study of Japan's economic decline will be cited by many.

The prime difference being though that although with a population twice Britain's size (127m vs 62m) throughout the 1990s and 2000s Japan has been incredibly future-forward regards the applications of its robotic age in serving the physical and psychological needs of its much diminished middle-class, relying on strong familial and social ties, and because of its central unity able to avoid problematic social friction, beyond extreme margins, as its population size steadies and eventually diminishes.

To Follow -

Somewhat delayed, yet the content and tone of which is more pertinent than ever.

- Business “Nounce”

- “Can Do” Enthusiasm

- Multi-Aspect Advanced Engineering

- Technology + Arts-Crafts

These basic pillars applied in both 'Renaissance' and 'Revolutionary' applications across current and wholly new products and services.

Industry Practice – UK Manufacturing – Renaissance and Revolution: 2015+ (Part 2)

The long, long awaited and highly anticipated announcement regards the ECB's purchase of EU sovereign debt has at last arrived. €1.1tr to be dispensed at the rate of €60bn each moth from March onward will undoubtedly provide new under-pinnings of confidence to Europe's fixed-income and equities markets; even if between now and then we possibly see profit taking in some companies stocks given their dramatic rises on the QE rumour, with”buy the rumour, sell the fact” outcomes.

Given its national memories of the 1920s and the Weimar Republic era which led to massive money-printing and rabid inflation, Germany understandably remains very cautious of QE in general, hence its demands for ensured pan-EU structural reforms, to ensure the monies eventually take good effect. Given the heavy stagnancy of the continental economy, though the ECB's president's very position and name might associatively generate thoughts of this good work being eventually undone by fiscal drag, that appears a very remote possibility.

Instead, the liquidity will inevitably be directed at capital markets, so as to get the circulation of the money system repaired to healthier levels, with very probably a more balanced mix of corporate bond buying vs stocks than seen previously in the US. This then providing further economic stability, even if at the cost of slower progress. That progress however should be seen by way of infrastructure spending where applicable, more probably toward the invisible sewers, pipelines and other networks of old cities, in contrast to the pre-2008 display of expansive inter-city programmes.

Given years of real-price stagnancy after the absorption impact of 1989's Unification, Germany will, whilst likewise seeking EU growth inflation likewise wish to ensure 'price containment' so that the spread and effect of QE monies is not simply inflated-away sooner than expected.

The pre-WW2 hyper-inflation experience, is today still quietly believed behind closed doors as created by “the jew banker”, the consequences of which was the terrible suffering of 'Dem Deutschen Volke', so creating the path to war. So still today, though a willing EU member to avoid any future continental conflict, with all too real memories of bad economic outcomes, a very conservative Germany does not wholly trust the foundations and methods of modern banking.

Ironically, it is this distrust which should more positively prompt rigorous supervision of QE outcomes.

Nonetheless, as with the US and UK, the European QE programme will eventually buoy the broad economy and Britain itself will eventually gain through exports even if later than hoped and to a lesser degree given the FX effects of a devalued Euro. Conversely, the secured raft of cheaper imports, (most obviously German, French and Italian vehicles) will be welcomed by UK consumers (and able to compete against similarly placed 'in situ' products from S.Korean and Japanese manufacturers).

Here in Britain, the Chancellor of the Exchequer's 'Autumn Statement' of late 2014 presented the fact that rebalancing the books of the country across the accounting measures of Debt, Deficit and Structural Deficit would take nigh-on twice the timespan forecast back in 2010; effectively to 2018 and beyond.

This reality then gives rise to continued consideration of the economic future, what Britain may do for itself and what positive impact a resurgent Europe brings.

It is generally believed that an individual's prosperity the theoretical result of personal education and efforts combined with potency of the nation's development capability: an visionary economic agenda supported by strength of public and private finances. However, prosperity only arrives when an economy is properly functioning; the 20^th and early 21^st centuries replete with instances when it did not, those instances seemingly more frequent as credit was relied upon to create B2B and B2C demand instead of the power of truly tangible productivity.

     

The Tsunami Effect of 2008 -

As seen previously, by 2010 the Chancellor of the Exchequer believed that, with US and UK stock markets roaring through renewed animal spirits, an economic rebound to reset the negative national structural deficit, would be sooner seen than later.

This was the public face of government, but as many - including investment-auto-motives - believed, any full-scale recovery would be problematic given the previous 'tsunami shock' to the global financial system and the effect upon real world commerce, spending power and consumption.

And that a major disjuncture would appear between the fortunes of the West / Triad nations and those many others emerging as part of the New Economic Order.

Magnified by EM Strength -

As well recognised by industry, academics, politicians and the much of the public at large, the preceding four decades had seen broad swathes of the West incrementally lose traditional competitive industrial advantage to EM countries. And perhaps rightly so in Adam Smith's manner , as economies elsewhere reformed, stabilised and promoted FDI and internal growth. All that was the “BRIC”, “MINTS” and “CIVETS” success story, especially seen over the last 20 years and of special significance to western and Triad originated multinationals (like GM, VW, FIAT, Ford, Toyota, Honda etc).

During this long period western capital markets bought into the four prime stories:

1. EM B2B and B2C growth

2. web connectivity potential

3. the supposedly “safe as houses” property boom

4. the expansion of the people based 'service-culture'*

(*from sub-contracting of utility meter reading to “bundling” of 'media-solutions' to waged street hawkers for charities)

Britain's Re-Aligned 'Competencies' -

Unlike Germany, Japan, South Korea and even the USA, countries which has always recognised the great importance of physical industry to domestic and export economies, here in the UK whilst various innovation success stories have been periodically heralded (eg BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce plc and Dyson) and luxury goods (eg Dunhill, Burberry etc) grew as worldwide premium spending increased, the fact is that what was termed the “post-industrial” era had become all too real. Even if for good reasons at the time, swathes of industry were subsumed to ever deeper finance and ever broader low/mid-value service sectors to expand the wealth base of “UK plc”.

Certain lost “heavy” industrials” such as coal had been economically and environmentally displaced by nuclear and gas, whilst much “mid” level engineering (such as mass auto manufacture) shifted to more competent players and places, with 'light' industrials easily replicated at lower cost elsewhere.

Yet the fact is that whilst certain industrial sectors enabled premium pricing to off-set the heightened national cost-base (eg Rolls, Bentley, Morgan etc) they were (and arguably still are) too few and far between.

Without the right research, products, supporting services and brand identities across a broad swathe of B2B and B2C activity, the UK had inevitably become an over-costly place to manufacture what were often mid value goods without global appeal; hence the value-destruction seen during the 1980s and 1990s, and the sale of then touted “national industry” to more cost competitive foreign industry.

The Travails of UK Automotive -

In relation to the automotive industry terms much of the investment focus during the 1980s and 1990s had switched to the retailing arena of premium and differentiated foreign vehicles; a far more lucrative commercial position to that of producing increasingly lacklustre British marques of the period.

British auto-industry management during these decades stemmed from the BLMC and Austin-Rover eras, effectively enjoying the guardianship of its parent BAe plc. As previously seen with Detroit in the 1970s, very unfortunately silo-mentalities pervaded at the top, resulting from lack of in-depth commercial comprehension given its subsidised costs and losses, and the power-struggle conflicts between Engineering (oft allied to Production), the newer impetus of Marketing and the very necessary 'bean counters' of Finance. This continued even well after the 'Associates' culture had been adopted from its industrial partner Honda. Thus continually self-serving, Midlands-centric and so increasingly “out of touch” with the realities of the broader worldwide automotive market-place; its own worldwide NSCs ([inter]-national sales companies) hamstrung, cost-heavy and poorly structured.

The 1994 BMW takeover of Rover Group (directly for rebirth of Mini, rebound of Land Rover and resuscitation of MG and Rover) was less a clash of Anglo-Germanic cultures and more a clash of very different mindsets, capabilities and cash-burn. BMW recognised this ostensibly unalterable situation and wisely exited; leaving Land Rover conjoined with Jaguar under Ford's PAG empire (itself ironically run by an ex-BMW German).

Conversely, the ability to resurrect Mini, Rolls-Royce [By BMW] and Bentley [by Volkswagen] was different story given their then respective organisational sizes and massive commercial potential.

The continued demise of mass-volume “British-owned” auto-manufacturing from the mid 1970s onward then likewise sent fractures through the domestic supply-chain and inevitably, as society and families experienced the reality of “economic re-orientation”, into the quality and numbers of new entrant graduates and apprentices.

Many of these with short-termist personal goals viewing their posts as simply a seemingly “steady job” from which to earn and get quickly onto the housing ladder. A very different attitude to their peer group in Germany with greater contributional pride and critically the notion of far longer, progressive and meaningful career horizon.

[NB Ironically, at the personal level the British contingent were exactly right to have that property bias during that time, it would prove more steady than their supposed career in a flailing British and then unwanted British firm].

Hence, thereafter, the seemingly all to inevitable “lift and shift” of tooling and operational assets, with Rover 75 from Cowley/Longbridge to China*, and TVR sports-cars from Blackpool to Russia.

[NB* the only feasible business plan presented to the government of the time, with the shrunken continuation around MG and discontinuing Rover, was presented by Alchemy Partners private equity firm; John Moulton seeking to mimic the brand renaissance story. So demonstrating how the oft berated world of private equity and its often unkind reputation for asset stripping, sees long term value, whilst management itself takes short-term advantage. Today MG languishes, when it could have become a truly valuable 'national asset'].

The Counter-Play for UK Automotive -

Today nearing 2015 such stories of a decade ago are themselves in the long distant past, yet the effects of this dissemination and fragmentation of such “systems-rich” mass-manufacture and “creativity-rich” niche manufacture has had a direct effect upon UK plc's own engineering capabilities; given that its heartland was shrunk and disseminated elsewhere.

Of course the counter argument about the UK's 'post-industrialisation' is that this is in fact a complete misnomer.

The socio-economic role of the once wholly British-owned companies taken-over by blue-chip foreign interests by way of their 'transplant' factories (eg. Nissan in Sunderland, Toyota in Derbyshire and Honda in Wiltshire). And moreover, associated instances where foreign players recognise the innate talent of British engineers such as the later development of Nissan's own development centre “N-TEC” in Bedfordshire (as similarly proclaimed by badges on certain Sunderland-made models).

And likewise, the theoretical loss of Rover Group, and resultant sale of its brands to Germany (Mini) China (Rover-MG) and America and onto India (Jaguar - Land Rover) [like Rolls and Bentley] is argued as the rebirth of these 'uniquely' British marques through the availability of substantial foreign funding. This is indeed hard to refute, given the expansion plans previously cited and then delivered at Cowley, (tho' not so at Longbridge), Solihull, Halewood, Castle Bromwich, and onto Ryton (itself a 'dead' site since Peugeot exited in the 1990s) aswell as of course new foreign sites in China and Brazil.

Beyond this, like N-TEC, is the proven FDI investment into important UK engineering centres such as Gaydon in Warwickshire and Whitely, Coventry.

Warning Signs Ahead -

None of this can be refuted, and as seen the impact of such FDI has been more than merely a lifeline for local economies, together with far grander holding company plans to grow globally the engineering centres are themselves presently central hubs to the spokes of worldwide manufacturing.

However, as is inevitably the case, and as seen by the most progressive volume manufacturers, those critical development hubs of today will need to be replicated in major export and so new manufacturing regions, as part of the implicit/explicit promise made by parent companies regards the broad inter-national EM development agenda.

This then means that in 10-20 years time, these present jewels in the crown of UK engineering prowess will have been replicated elsewhere. In turn, re-creating the kind of intra-company competitiveness seen between Dunton and Cologne vehicle development centres within the Ford empire during the 1960s. As with competing plants, this necessary internal competition is believed to assist overall corporate value creation and so share-holder value and new share-holder interest, and leaves the losing development centre to re-engineer itself within the firm as a re-invented internal cost-centre, or possibly as an externally facing business unit seeking outside revenue, and at worst divested as an under-performing asset to another ambitious – presumably cost capable - firm.

Continued Re-Alignment -

Technology Strategy Board

As seen, the British motor industry had indeed been under-going an immense re-structuring up to the turn of the new 21^st century. Home-grown, home-owned responsibility for mass manufacture had been both substituted by, and divested to, better positioned, more globally competitive foreign firms.

However, for all the talk and impact of the “service economy”, and central role of financial services specifically, it was also well recognised that Britain must re-expand and possibly re-invent its high-value manufacturing and service activities.

Though unstated, so as to serve itself in a properly hedged manner; both 'inwardly' on the domestic front (if EM protectionism came to pass) and internationally 'outward' (continuing the historical convention for global trade).

To this end, by the mid 2000s government, industry and investment communities had recognised the need to identify, corroborate and establish a High Value Manufacturing vision / manifesto so as to guide policy formation, which in turn should support investment rationale.

The Technical Strategy Board was created to undertake this task, ostensibly from 2007 onwards, with the creation of a technical roadmap.

With £400m in its central budget, plus external funds, it sought to match technical disciplines in which the UK has capability to markets (sectorial and geographic) with high growth potential.

The topics it recognised as prime routes forward are seen below (with focal regions):

- Transport Systems (Milton Keynes)

- High Value Manufacturing (Strathclyde, Wilton, Rotheram, Ansty, Coventry, Bristol)

- Satellite Applications (Harwell)

- Offshore Renewable Energy (Glasgow)

- Connected Digital Economy (London)

- Future Cities (London)

- Bio-Sciences (London)

With latter addition of:

- Advanced Materials (tbc)

Critical amongst these distinct but inter-connected areas is the need to expand physical research and development bases across various sectors so as to establish continual, progressive credibility.

The Automotive sector obviously has a inter-relationships with broad 'Transport Systems' given its central standing within debate regards private vs public modes; with 'Satellite Applications' given its position as promoter and beneficiary of intelligently co-ordinated mass movement; with 'Connected Digital Economy' given the much increased IT content of vehicles and of course 'Renewable Energy' given the need to combine fossil and renewables usage.

However, more obvious is the UK Automotive sector's position within the broad sphere of “High Value Manufacturing” and “Advanced Materials”. This very obviously demonstrated to date by the technological progress made within of a wide spectrum of high-priced vehicle types designed, developed and produced in the country. Herein there is a mutually rewarding relationship between sector incumbents whereby the fruits of research trickles both downward from blue-chip companies into SMEs (eg powertrain and electronics) and upward from small enterprises into blue-chip applications (eg carbon-fibre structures). Equally, important roles undertaken by respective supply chains, distribution channels, and after-sales support networks.

With an intention to create greater dynamism amongst small, medium and large firms, so ultimately leading to commercially credible HVM technology applications, the Technical Strategy Board's role was and is to identify the proponents of plausible technical development work.

It has noted that what it terms a 'Valley of Death' has historically been the downfall of new technologies. This effectively the scale-up development phase which follows the initial phase of concept origination / proof / small scale manufacture, and large-scale manufacturing maturity offering cost-reduction and quality consistency, and so attractiveness to blue-chip regional and global firms.

The TSB's primary aim then is to support identified technologies through this problematic second development phase.

Achieved through allocation of what is ostensibly government funding (from Department for Transport, Business Innovation and Skills and elsewhere) funnelled through a (seemingly independent) non-departmental public body (NDPB).

Progress to date by the Technical Strategy Board – now renamed InnovateUK (innovateuk.org) – can be viewed on its website. (TSB/InnovateUK is headquartered in Swindon, renowned for its railway engineering history).

One such 'B' road vitally inter-connected to the primary 'A' road topics listed above, is that of the “Low Carbon Vehicle Innovation Platform”; itself reportedly consisting of 15 competitions, 190 projects, 500 partnerships and additionally funded by the Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV).

Another 'B' road is the 2015-20 Ultra Low Emission Vehicle programme (ULEV) which seeks to provide: £100m for broad research, over £200m for a 'plug-in' car grant (EV/PHEV), £32m for rapid charging schemes, £35m scheme for flagship cities, £31m for light commercial vehicles, £30m for buses, £20m for taxis, £4m for heavy good vehicles fuelled by gas (CNG/LNG).

Amongst the plethora of content and publications The 2012-15 “HVM” Strategy presentation. This states how the TSB has chosen to refine its investment choices by utilising a criteria of 22 manufacturing competencies as defined by a preceding study viewing the “Manufacturing Landscape”, these grouped around “5 Key Themes”, and the use of an “HVM Catapult” scheme so as to “provide the cutting-edge equipment and skills needed to commercialise world-class technologies”. And various 'Knowledge Networks' created to enable communication and knowledge transfer. The deployment of “HVM” stretches from the first stages of Research and Development, all the way through the Value Chain to the point of a product's ecologically improved disposal and recycling.

The 5 Key Themes include:

1. Aligning technologies against scarcity of energy and commodities

2. Creation of more effective and efficient manufacturing systems

3. Innovative products gained via integration of materials, coatings. Electronics with other technologies

4. Creation of new, agile, cost-effective manufacturing processes

5. The above deployed via new business models.

The Opportunities For Business include:

A) Resource Efficiency:

- Energy generation, storage, management and security

- Design and manufacture for sustainability and thru' life

- Design and manufacture of lightweight vehicles, structures and devices

- Bio-tech, biological and synthetic biology processing

B) Manufacturing Systems:

- Process engineering capability across food, pharmaceuticals and chemicals

- Design and manufacture for small scale and miniaturisation

- Systems modelling and integrated design / simulation

- Automation, mechanisation and human-machine interface

- “Plug and play” manufacturing

- Novel mechanical conversion processes for scale, economy and efficiency

- Understanding, designing and manufacturing formulated products

C) Materials Integration:

- Smart, hybrid and multiple materials

- Intelligent systems and embedded electronics

- Development and application of advance coatings

D) Manufacturing Process:

- Flexible, adaptive manufacture

- Extrapolation of 'Simultaneous Engineering' methods

- Additive manufacture (layering surfaces and conjoining)

- Net and near net shape manufacture (elimination of “finishing” steps)

E) Business Models:

- Managing fragmented value chains to support 'HVM'

- Building new 'HVM' orientated business models

- Developing and retaining skills for 'HVM'

- Managing risk and resilience to support 'HVM'

As stated, but worth re-stating, the 'Catapult' monies is to be directed to the phase between “proof of concept” and “commercial demonstration”.

With half the overall budget allocated to Catapult, the criteria deployed will undoubtedly provide advancement impetus to those chosen firms which otherwise would have remained within the 'Death Valley' development conundrum.

Strategic Deployment of 'High Value' Products, IPR and Identity -

Of course the story of a previously relatively high (even if now slightly declined) UK cost-base versus mass manufacturing upon the global stage is well recognised, from textiles to vehicles and far beyond.

Hence the past few decades have seen greater attention by the likes of the CBI toward alternative business models. Those of 'intermediate scale' and 'niche scale' production of higher value items relative to a specific sector and its relative regional and global TIV (total industry volume).

This so across the breadth of industry, from yesteryear crafts such as hand-woven and authenticated Scottish island “Harris Tweed” to the near clinical build ethos rarefied vehicles such as those offered by Aston Martin Lagonda of Warwickshire, McLaren Automotive of Surrey, with the likes of the inimitable Morgan Motors of Worcestershire, with its renewed 'nouvelle-retro' product strategy / brand philosophy, seeking to entwine the crafted and the precise.

Furthermore, just as the UK became ever more reliant on its 'creative industries' - such as initially music, “above” and “below the line” advertising, television and cinema production, theatre production, information technology, worldwideweb development and later cyber-associated products such as video games and smart-phone 'apps' - so firms in other sectors holding what they consider proprietry origination strengths, became ever more entranced with the idea of IPR (intellectual property rights). This mentality the progressive step from the century-old Victorian patenting process, and prompted in the 1960s onward by Defence and Pharmaceutical sectors, thereafter applied by those with the financial means.

Of course today, the end result is that not only is the 'service-product' itself a saleable entity at home or abroad, but that very rights to the replication of such “works” (exacting and familiar) would become saleable in their own manner. Effectively the intellectualised extension of yesteryear's replicability via product licensing.

Whilst a norm in the media-sphere, and a natural expansion of the IT business model (by the likes of ARM Holdings plc), this then has been explored within UK manufacturing. And deemed successful when Gordon Murray Design in Surrey sold the IPR rights of its T-series city-car and the associated i-stream production process to Yamaha.

[NB The Japanese firm taking on the moniker 'MOTIV.e' to organically extend its own range beyond motorcycles and continue its interests in 'Mega-city' directed personal transportation].

Now looking at identity extrapolation...

As is well recognised and re-played, highly regarded brands provide for the possibility of brand extension into both directly symbiotic activities, as well as possibly more remote areas, much depending upon brand perception and persona; what is general named 'brand stretch'.

A prime automotive example that of Aston Martin, with its involvement and offerings having recently spanned clothing, specific household artefacts, artwork etc, to varying degrees of success. Similarly, the concept of mutually rewarding 'cross-branding' grew in commercial appeal for some companies through the 1990s and 2000s, as demonstrated by the special edition Range-Rovers furnished by the traditionalist country pursuits firm Holland and Holland.

Additionally, Britain continues to progress the idea of (what investment-auto-motives terms as) 'Veneer Branding'. The idea being that a business nameplate grows such a level of goodwill that it can be overlaid as marketing veneer upon the operations of another service provider or manufacturer; with ideally no loss of 'brand equity'.

This then very much in the footsteps of once trail-blazing Virgin Group, having through Virgin Atlantic revolutionised the customer service standards of the airline industry, thereafter deploying the brand across other sectors, from re-enhancing its music retail prominence to broader holiday provision and onto a wide arena including: financial services, transport, healthcare, food, drink, media and telecoms; now reported as over 400 individual business interests worldwide. Virgin Group effectively a venture capital body which seeks out new business possibilities and partners.

Others have sought to mimic this ambitious identity driven commercial stance, with “no-frills” Easy Group best known in seeking to replicate the model of replication; from initially a very hands-on operational approach to latterly distinctly hands-off.

The UK's outwardly visible 21^st Industrial-Services Model essentially:

1. 'High Value' Products

2. 'High Value' Associated Services

3. IPR Sale and Lease

4. 'High Value' Brand Extensions and Tie-Ins

5. 'High value' Brand Identity 'Veneers'.

[NB with as seen the Technical Strategy Board seeking to broaden the UK's industrial-service horizon, with new visions for often publicly invisible Tier 1 and 2 SME firms].

Renaissance Meets Revolution -

Previous decades have witnessed both a renaissance of previously declined great British marques (most high profile thanks to foreign investment), and realisation that with a loss of competitive advantage to fellow AM countries and newer EM nations, an effort to effectively 're-engineer' internal core competencies toward innovative solutions; both in physical production, service provision (the Motorsport arena especially productive) and increasing recognition of the role IPR can play.

Yet whilst the renaissance of grand motoring marques was effectively an expected strategic course for strong premium foreign firms - to add corporate kudos, increase per unit margins, buoy and so overall profit levels and gain the goodwill of boosted local and national economies - it is the realm of 'revolution' through innovation that is a far harder formulae to conjure.

Unlike the somewhat formulaic rebirth of a grande marque, product and service innovation innovation steps into partly or wholly new realms of the unknown. Whereas renaissance is a case of “build it and they will come”, innovation requires far subtler appreciation of often far broader and opaque influences, from Mega-trends to in-direct / substitutional competitor reaction.

Re-invented and / or wholly new product and service concepts with aligned new business models are far riskier propositions.

On the product front, this was the experience of Daimler with its original SmartCar. Whilst on the service front, Peugeot's recognition is that its 'Mu' multi-vehicle rental system for city dwellers will take years to snowball and gain critical mass; yet it is willing to support the venture, from highly publicised French launch to quiet 'tick-over' during its corporate restructure.

Historically of course innovation breakthroughs, adaptations and advancements have been central to the domestic and export economy of the UK. From Newcomen and Watt steam engines, to Trevithic's marriage of steam and rail for railway locomotion, to the myriad of trade and consumer items displayed at the 1851 Great Exhibition, to Marconi's telegraph, to Whittle's jet engine, to Crick-Watson-Wilkins' discovery of DNA, and most recently Berners-Lee with the worldwideweb.

Yet it is stated time and time again whilst exemplary at invention and innovation Britain fails to commercialise its breakthroughs, whilst its prolific American cousin seizes and moulds every opportunity.

There are no doubt frustrated seniors within technical communities who believe that maintaining much of the present status quo will forever be the real agenda inside the seemingly pro-active policy-thinking of UK plc. Innovators invariably believe that the over-riding mindset of the British Establishment (ie The City at al) is centrally interested in the financial gained from trading the global and domestic “macro tides”, from FX rates to commodities to event-driven reactions etc.

[NB One current probable example being the play on cheap (fossil derived) oil: with lowly valued well placed oil majors vs potential for biased or dedicated refiners vs expanded demand elasticity for large pick-up trucks in the US vs continued EM demand for low-tech domestic HGVs].

Such arguments by innovators have always been with us. And if viewed by innovators as a true barrier to the adoption of innovation. Perhaps then better that 'reality' should be either integrated into their strategic thinking, so circumnavigated by way of a “better mousetrap” (ie evolutional). Or direct specific innovation toward target countries which are themselves in need of specific breakthrough technological innovation.

[NB Herein a useful case-study is the pan-African adoption of mobile phones and mobile payment systems (eg M-Pesa) as part of the required micro-financing initiative to circulate and create African wealth. Ironically, first recognition of the need and possibilities for such a system came from the UK's DFID (Department For International Development), thus highlighting the proven worth of investigating how technology can overlay evolving cultural norms; and so the critical need for understanding as to how innovation should be directed to 'flow' within a cultural context].

The fact is that the UK very probably needs greater macro-level “joined-up thinking” of micro-level firms and projects – via much improved technology and development planning – not simply in the minds of the well connected City and Whitehall, but in the minds of innovators themselves.

Looking Forward -

At the national level, as per the Renaissance and Revolution story itself, the previous frustrating hiatus enforced upon MG by its Chinese owners, and its arguably sub-optimal return in hatchback guise - itself undermining the domestic brand story, previously played-out with RV8 and MG-F in previous re-births - is at least in partly off-set by the endeavours of the likes of Gordon Murray and the very strategically, long-term attuned desire to have the UK play a role as prime originator future global personal mobility.

Such new era 21^st century UK business models then bode well, at least from surface inspection, for a world of opportunity as the power of Advanced Engineering, High Value Manufacturing and High Value Associative Services meet the might of new product concepts possibly over-laid by the umbrella of meaningful brands. So as to meet the challenges of both the New Economic Order, with ambitious BRICs vs rebound West, and the human needs, wants and desires therein.

The requirement from 2015 onward is to properly underpin more renaissance stories, and critically improved visioneering to 'join-up the dots' of global socio-economic challenges, and to mould and re-mould compelling business stories for end-users.

Only this will draw investor interests.

And lastly, all the while creating a more conducive business atmosphere – within the ideal of “Moral Capitalism” - by which to advance.

To Follow -

Part 3 of this web-log seeks to simplistically highlight the key aspects behind such a 'renaissance and revolution' story for UK enterprise.

Spotlighting the virtues of “Business Nounce” and pragmatic “Can-Do Enthusiasm” tied together with the UK's apparent competitive advantages across 'Multi-Aspect Advanced Engineering' and the deployment of a creative juxtaposition whereby 3D Precision meets 'Arts + Crafts'.

Industry Practice – UK Manufacturing – Renaissance and Revolution: 2015+ (Part 1)

Here in Britain, the Chancellor of the Exchequer's 'Autumn Statement' of late 2014 presented the fact that rebalancing the books of the country across the accounting measures of Debt, Deficit and Structural Deficit will take nigh-on twice the timespan forecast back in 2010.

Memory of any Christmas / New Year celebrations are now replaced by consideration of the economic future. An individual's prosperity the theoretical result of personal education and efforts combined with potency of the nation's development capability: any visionary economic agenda supported by strength of public and private finances.

The Historical Context -

In this critical regard from an investment perspective, Britain - like much of the west – may be viewed by economic rationalists with an overt historical perspective, as past its best. Long gone are the tentacles of a militarily gained empire with its inbound gains of associated trade, processing industries and increased consumption seen over the 18^th, 19^th century's; its tail-end the early 20^th century model of supporting the economic development of the Commonwealth likewise dwindled as those newly independent countries themselves import critical developmental capital goods and consumer goods from elsewhere.

Instead, by the early 1980s the UK's economy had started to grow ever more “post-industrial” and consequentially toward being “services-orientated” aided by “new-tech” both facilitated by the central hub of “financial services”, itself plying increasing liquidity from increasingly private and global institutional sources. National industries privatised to enable either substantial re-investment in future-forward sectors (typically allied with the transformative IT revolution), or divested to better placed, low cost-base foreign companies. To counter-act such losses, a world of new possibilities with solutions directed at commercial 'info-tech' and domestic 'leisure-tech' realms, with the goals of respectively improving commercial and inter-social efficiency and deepening the escapist experience.

Critically by the mid 1990s the emergent topic of balancing global development with the need to temper humanity's adverse effects upon nature had become ideologically prevalent. The “eco” dimension thereafter became increasingly apparent and applied; the auto-sector the leading activist regards feasible eco-evolution, in recognition of its own responsibilities whilst bounded by business reality.

By the turn of the millennium the 'communication age' had become wholly crystallised, the seemingly exponential growth of data-streaming speeds for internet connected and tablets and smart-phones providing the basis for the apparent new economic miracle of web-based commercial and social existence.

Beyond Today, Into Tomorrow -

Although today there still remains partial focus upon the broad universe and 'outer-space' the days of cold-war technical competition have gone, at least for the west, as the overt force of nationalism is replaced by a corporatism that seeks to better explore and extract value from the 'shared-space' of an urbanised global society and reaching further into the psychological 'inner-space' of individual and group preference and behaviour.

As stated previously through-out investment-auto-motives' web-logs, wholly critical will be the ability to better connect the 20^th century's “physical world” (of infrastructure, consumer goods and capital equipment) to the newer “e-based new-world”. This to be achieved via by which emergent trends, whether they be policy-driven, media-driven or apparently people-drive. Never before has such an increasingly strong connection between the social will and physical outcome been created. Whether via newly manufactured 'green' goods, recycled / “up-cycled” items or indeed the retro-fitment of green-tech to specific items where plausible.

To do so, and to derive an expanded economic development template, Britain must continue to re-invent itself with vision and tenacity toward what today may be described as the 'shared-space' and 'inner-space' idioms.

The Default Position for Phase 1 Re-Development -

Presently UK government focus spotlights the tried and tested road to economic growth: that of infrastructure spending. It is a formulae that spans back to the policies of Egyptian Pharaohs, Feudal Lords, Victorian Social Reformers and Global Presidents; the EM nations seen as most prevalent practitioners. Likewise for Britain today, road, rail, airport and domestic build projects have been publicised as economic catalysts, to be undertaken via the necessary template of public-private finance initiatives.

This portends well for the critically important initial stages of economic recovery, as the new dual sourced liquidity is injected into such enterprises, and a mosaic mix of executives, managers, technical and operational staff gain income, thereafter recirculating these monies across the broad social stratum and ultimately into various commercial realms; from food and farming to culture and sport.

However, this must be viewed as the typical 'default position' for Phase 1 of national re-growth.

As this very visible physical expansion and physical renewal gains ground, so simultaneously renewed vision(s) for Britain's continued place and role within advanced 'eco' and 'cyber' manufacturing must become equally, and ideally far more, concrete.

Formulating a Progressive Phase 2 -

It is all to obvious, that as never before, there is a requirement for yet speedier Renaissance and Revolution in Britain's manufacturing base. Itself credibly led by the scaling-up and diversified application of laboratory and test-bed efforts to date. Herein, the ostensibly high-profile yet paradoxically oft over-looked arena that is “Advanced Automotive” should be seen as a guiding light and enabler.

The philosophy of 'advanced automotive' has effectively been part and parcel of Britain ever since the efforts of the Lanchester Brothers amongst many others.

Although arguably over-shadowed by Germany in the 1930s, 1950s and 2000s, the French periodocally and the Japanese since the 1980s - such progress driven by pressures of motor-sport, brand kudos, performance and eco mass-manufacture – it has meant that over the past 25 years or so even Britain's comparitively under-funded research and development impetus has stretched over a wide spectrum.

From the creation of a hybrid-engined Mini Metro concept 'mule' by Rover Group in the early 1990s to the exploration of multi-directional avenues for efficient powertrain, electrical, chassis, structural and external body solutions.

With regards to the former: hydrogen-stacks for EVs, super-capacitors applied to EVs and hybrids, variable forced induction of small sized conventional engines, variable valve timing also applied to exhaust gas escape, the dynamic de-coupling and re-coupling of ancillery equipment to reduce parasitic losses, to the now well publicised use of 'KERS' technology in F1 racers; Britain the sport's technology-hub. The other four systems arenas likewise explored in old and new ways to improve singular and combined performance.

Interestingly, a fore-runner to the modern KERS energy harvesting process was initially deployed by early innovators such as Dr Porsche, and in the early 1930s seen in pantagraph powered electric trolley-buses during an age of geo-political instability and energy 'insecurity'. Yet this technology's cost-benefit in turn surpassed by changed macro back-drops as the development of the lightweight monocoque Routemaster bus in the mid 1950s was designed as to now be powered by lower-cost petrol, itself sourced from the “stabilised” (ie UK aligned) Middle East.

Critically, these previous examples from the 30's, 50's, 90's and 2010's provide a but a few illustrations of the history and progress of advanced vehicle creation and deployment in the UK, itself a technically diverse field at the centre of energy and ecological matters.

Proof is seen by the macro-aligned broad and constantly re-focusing engineering activities of various UK firms, Ricardo plc perhaps the best known example.

National Ambition -

In this regard Britain, whilst new infrastructure projects will indeed boost the economy both as short and mid term fiscal generator and as long-term facilitator, and whilst the e-economy continues to offer much hope (even with its many inherent failed ventures), government must simultaneously ascertain how best to subtly prompt and assist SME and blue-chip firms which explore and promote those physical goods provide re-engineered and newly-engineered 'eco' and 'cyber' solutions.

Thereby rebalancing the activities of the wider national economy, and the re-weighting of the country's Balance of Trade account back toward high-value 'visible' goods given that portions of the services based 'invisible' trade have long been replicated at reduced cost by EM nations seeking their own path.

For the UK continuing down the right road to future prosperity is crucial, but critical also is the need to plausibly re-imagine and re-engineer the everyday items we interact with, this process core to Phase 2 of ongoing economic renewal.

A period which might be termed “Renaissance and Revolution”

To Follow -

The second part of this weblog presents a snap-shot picture of Britain's economic and industrial challenge:

- its standing still amongst the ruins of the 2008 crash

- its weakened position magnified vis-a-vis obvious EM nations

- its re-aligned industrial competencies

- its lessons learned from UK Autos “travails of yesteryear”

- its counter-play of UK Autos thru' foreign FDI

- its need to recognised 'warning signs' ahead

- its high value products and identities

- its need for continued Renaissance matched by Revolution

- its need to soundly assess and develop future industrial projects

2015 New Year Message

Capitalism presently sits upon the horns of a dilemma.

Two decades of success in EMs deploying 'Asian Values'
Boosted wealth and standards for millions
Yet with much self-sacrifice in hearts and minds.

Whilst western masses feel betrayed  
Yesteryear's 'Anglo model' viewed as inherently broken
Philosophers and politicians debate.

When they should be ever more empowered to promote its growth
Western corporations did little to promote 'as promised' spin-off entrepreneurs
Academic spin-offs often high ideals and money-spinning over credibility.

Perhaps newer "Asian Values" will now learn from the "Anglo" past
Whilst the western power-base likewise fundamentally re-aligns
To respect individuals and their personal power.  

New socio-economic roads must be laid by which
All participants avoid being cuckolded by the horns of capitalism

Alternative Seasonal Message YE 2014

At time of year...

Tired minds wind down
Good cheer is raised
Yet "keep 'em peeled".

Merging of real with cinematic 'reel'
Alters perceptions and perspectives
'Object' and 'Subject' ever more entwined.

Unconsidered social mimicry prevails
The Doors of the Mind opened and availed
Easily played for others' gain.

Stay aware with acute observation
Apart from those who seek to beguile
Direct your own choices, be not easily led.

Alternative Seasonal Message YE 2014

At this time of year...

False prophets abound
From the domestic doorstep
To corporate rhetoric
To PR driven screen media

As the holy-days approach
A useful 'take-away' comes
From the festive Bruce Forsythe

"Believe little [on the screen]...
Except for the time...in the right-hand corner"

Hence, be spiritual, yet not naive.

Alternative Seasonal Message YE 2014

At this time of year....

Original counter-culture need to "turn on, tune in and drop out" is vital.
The cyber-hippy memetic re-engineering of "turn on, boot up, jack in" defunct.
At least for a short period.
Be 'Leary' of  McLuhan's Insights.

Likewise, environments festooned graphics and icons underpin social norms.
Associative "culture-jamming" long since applied to convey core themes.
Self referential irony and paradox increasingly cynical well-worn paths.
So consciously "Feed Your Head" in the Wonderland of today's merged existences.

Alternative Seasonal Message YE 2014

At this time of year...

As Black Friday leads into the season of greatest "Monetisation"
So the Spiritual must regain innate influence over the Temporal.  

Alternative Seasonal Message for YE 2014

At this time of year...

Those with healthy disposable income are morally obliged consider the vulnerable.
And simultaneously mull their own routes to continued prosperity in 2015.